Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,801–8,850

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8801	HOMESTEAD NURSING AND REHABILITATION OF BAIRD	0.3%	47.7	B	TX	BAIRD	0	STEPHENS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8802	Wisconsin Rapids Health Services	0.3%	47.7	C	WI	Wisconsin Rapids	114	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
8803	HERITAGE PLAZA NURSING CENTER	0.3%	47.7	F	TX	TEXARKANA	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8804	Armenian Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	47.7	A	MA	BOSTON	83	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
8805	GRACE LUTHERAN COMMUNITIES - RIVER PINES	0.3%	47.7	A	WI	ALTOONA	50	—
8806	Stonehill Care Center	0.3%	47.7	A	IA	Dubuque	185	STONEHILL FRANCISCAN SERVICES
8807	DEUPREE COTTAGES	0.3%	47.7	A	OH	CINCINNATI	24	EPISCOPAL RETIREMENT HOMES INC
8808	Avir at Center	0.3%	47.7	C	TX	CENTER	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8809	LANCIA VILLA ROYALE	0.3%	47.7	F	OH	STEUBENVILLE	15	—
8810	SALEM HOME	0.3%	47.7	A	KS	HILLSBORO	45	—
8811	MONTGOMERY GENERAL HOSPITAL	0.3%	47.7	A	WV	MONTGOMERY	44	—
8812	Avir at Fort Worth	0.3%	47.7	D	TX	FORT WORTH	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8813	MyMichigan Skilled Nursing Facility	0.3%	47.7	C	MI	Standish	29	MYMICHIGAN HEALTH
8814	ANN'S CHOICE	0.3%	47.7	A	PA	WARMINSTER	66	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
8815	AUGUSTA MEDICAL CTR SKILLED CA	0.3%	47.7	A	VA	FISHERSVILLE	17	—
8816	N Y S VETERANS HOME IN N Y C	0.3%	47.7	A	NY	JAMAICA	250	STATE OF NEW YORK COMPTROLLERS OFFICE
8817	Ridgecrest Community Care Center	0.3%	47.7	A	LA	West Monroe	112	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
8818	Our Island Home	0.3%	47.7	A	MA	NANTUCKET	45	—
8819	PLEASANT VIEW NURSING HOME	0.3%	47.7	D	WI	MONROE	96	—
8820	MABEE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	47.7	A	TX	MIDLAND	0	MANOR PARK INC
8821	GREENBRIAR COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	47.7	A	LA	SLIDELL	174	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
8822	HILL TOP HOUSE	0.3%	47.7	A	KS	BUCKLIN	29	—
8823	CALCASIEU COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	47.7	C	LA	LAKE CHARLES	120	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
8824	Cuba Memorial Hospital Inc SNF	0.3%	47.7	A	NY	CUBA	61	—
8825	Allina Health Restorative Suites	0.3%	47.7	A	MN	PLYMOUTH	50	CASSIA
8826	SOUTHEAST COLORADO HOSPITAL LTC	0.3%	47.7	A	CO	SPRINGFIELD	56	—
8827	OAKVIEW MANOR HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	47.7	A	AL	OZARK	138	—
8828	ANEW HEALTHCARE OXFORD	0.3%	47.7	C	KS	OXFORD	42	—
8829	Town Hall Estates Keene, Inc.	0.3%	47.7	F	TX	Keene	126	—
8830	DIBOLL NURSING AND REHAB	0.3%	47.7	B	TX	DIBOLL	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
8831	Crest View Care Center	0.3%	47.7	F	NE	Chadron	70	LANTIS ENTERPRISES INC
8832	Shinnery Oaks Community	0.3%	47.7	A	TX	Denver City	0	—
8833	RYDAL PARK OF PHILADELPHIA PRESBYTERY HOMES, INC	0.3%	47.7	A	PA	RYDAL	114	HUMANGOOD
8834	NATCHITOCHES COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	47.7	B	LA	NATCHITOCHES	120	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
8835	Vincentian Home	0.3%	47.7	C	PA	PITTSBURGH	106	—
8836	IREDELL MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC	0.3%	47.7	A	NC	STATESVILLE	48	—
8837	Plainview Manor	0.3%	47.7	A	NE	Plainview	39	—
8838	The Seasons at Alexandria	0.3%	47.7	C	KY	Alexandria	117	—
8839	BETHEL LUTHERAN HOME	0.3%	47.7	A	CA	SELMA	59	—
8840	LAKEVIEW VILLAGE	0.3%	47.7	A	KS	LENEXA	158	LAKEVIEW VILLAGE INC
8841	GUARDIAN CARE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	47.7	B	FL	ORLANDO	120	—
8842	The Villages on MacArthur	0.3%	47.7	B	TX	Irving	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8843	GEORGE ADE MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	47.7	B	IN	BROOK	70	—
8844	UPMC NORTHWEST TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	0.3%	47.3	A	PA	SENECA	16	UPMC
8845	Episcopal Church Home of Minnesota	0.3%	47.3	A	MN	SAINT PAUL	131	EPISCOPAL HOMES OF MINNESOTA
8846	CHOCTAW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	47.3	C	MS	ACKERMAN	60	—
8847	BOWDLE NURSING HOME	0.3%	47.3	A	SD	BOWDLE	27	—
8848	WARROAD CARE CENTER	0.3%	47.3	B	MN	WARROAD	49	—
8849	Fairview Care Center	0.3%	47.3	B	MN	DODGE CENTER	46	—
8850	HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.3%	47.3	B	NH	GOFFSTOWN	300	—

Showing 8,801–8,850 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.