Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,751–8,800

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8751	Pathstone Living	0.3%	48.1	A	MN	MANKATO	69	—
8752	GABLES OF BOUTWELLS LANDING	0.3%	48.1	A	MN	OAK PARK HEIGHTS	108	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
8753	WESTMINSTER VILLAGE MUNCIE INC	0.3%	48.1	B	IN	MUNCIE	76	—
8754	JENNINGS TERRACE	0.3%	48.1	B	IL	AURORA	60	—
8755	MARTHA AND MARY HEALTH SERVICE	0.3%	48.1	C	WA	POULSBO	135	—
8756	Waverly Gardens	0.3%	48.1	A	MN	NORTH OAKS	60	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
8757	WILLIMANSETT CENTER EAST	0.3%	48.1	C	MA	CHICOPEE	85	—
8758	ST GABRIEL'S COMMUNITY	0.3%	48.1	A	ND	BISMARCK	72	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
8759	SOUTHERN INYO HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.3%	48.1	B	CA	LONE PINE	33	—
8760	GLEN MEADOWS RETIREMENT COM.	0.3%	48.1	C	MD	GLEN ARM	31	PHI
8761	BIRCHAVEN RETIREMENT VILLAGE	0.3%	48.1	B	OH	FINDLAY	118	BLANCHARD VALLEY HEALTH SYSTEM
8762	MANSFIELD PLACE	0.3%	48.1	B	WV	PHILIPPI	60	DAVIS HEALTH SYSTEM
8763	VALLEY VIEW HAVEN, INC	0.3%	48.1	B	PA	BELLEVILLE	155	—
8764	APOSTOLIC CHRISTIAN HOME	0.3%	48.1	A	IL	ROANOKE	60	—
8765	Avir at River Ridge	0.3%	48.1	C	TX	Corpus Christi	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8766	OLD JEFFERSON COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	48.1	B	LA	BATON ROUGE	136	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
8767	MENNONITE FRIENDSHIP COMMUNITIES INC	0.3%	48.1	C	KS	SOUTH HUTCHINSON	100	—
8768	ELIM WELLSPRING HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	48.1	A	MN	PRINCETON	86	CASSIA
8769	DOOLEY CENTER	0.3%	48.1	A	KS	ATCHISON	44	—
8770	Timber Ridge Health and Rehabilitation	0.3%	48.1	A	WI	Stevens Point	48	—
8771	The Vinton Lutheran Home	0.3%	48.1	A	IA	Vinton	61	—
8772	MONTGOMERY COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.3%	48.1	A	AR	MOUNT IDA	112	—
8773	Benedictine Health Center Of Minneapolis	0.3%	48.1	A	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	90	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
8774	UPMC MAGEE-WOMENS HOSPITAL TCU	0.3%	48.1	A	PA	PITTSBURGH	20	UPMC
8775	Corewell Health Greenville Hospital Rehabilitation	0.3%	47.7	A	MI	Greenville	39	COREWELL HEALTH
8776	ROCK HAVEN	0.3%	47.7	C	WI	JANESVILLE	128	—
8777	ST MARYS CENTER INC	0.3%	47.7	A	NY	NEW YORK	39	—
8778	TALLAHASSEE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL EXTENDED CARE	0.3%	47.7	A	FL	TALLAHASSEE	113	—
8779	KANSAS CHRISTIAN HOME	0.3%	47.7	A	KS	NEWTON	54	—
8780	FULTON MANOR NURSING & REHAB C	0.3%	47.7	A	OH	WAUSEON	71	—
8781	ASCENSION NAZARETHVILLE PLACE	0.3%	47.7	A	IL	DES PLAINES	68	—
8782	Givens Health Center	0.3%	47.7	A	NC	Asheville	70	GIVENS ESTATES INC
8783	EMMANUEL CENTER FOR NURSING	0.3%	47.7	B	PA	DANVILLE	90	—
8784	Trinity Glen	0.3%	47.7	A	NC	Winston-Salem	117	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
8785	FOWLER RESIDENTIAL CARE	0.3%	47.7	B	KS	FOWLER	20	—
8786	Saint Anne Home	0.3%	47.7	C	PA	GREENSBURG	155	THE CARMELITE SYSTEM INC
8787	Clarkfield Care Center	0.3%	47.7	B	MN	CLARKFIELD	30	MINNEWASKA LUTHERAN HOME
8788	Countryside Care & Rehabilitation	0.3%	47.7	A	ID	Rupert	36	—
8789	VALLEY VIEW HEALTHCARE & REHAB	0.3%	47.7	B	MN	HOUSTON	40	—
8790	ST JOHN KRONSTADT CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.3%	47.7	A	CA	CASTRO VALLEY	49	—
8791	Frank M. Tejeda Texas State Veterans Home	0.3%	47.7	A	TX	Floresville	160	CARE INNS OF TEXAS TEMPLE LTD
8792	Village Health Care at The Glen	0.3%	47.7	B	LA	Shreveport	126	—
8793	SPIRITRUST LUTHERAN THE VILLAGE AT LUTHER RIDGE	0.3%	47.7	B	PA	CHAMBERSBURG	40	—
8794	Menig Nursing Home	0.3%	47.7	B	VT	Randolph Center	30	—
8795	Thompson House Nursing Home	0.3%	47.7	B	VT	Brattleboro	43	—
8796	The Estates at Linden LLC	0.3%	47.7	B	MN	STILLWATER	51	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
8797	Glenflora	0.3%	47.7	B	NC	Lumberton	52	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
8798	ARCHBOLD LIVING THOMASVILLE	0.3%	47.7	A	GA	THOMASVILLE	64	JOHN D ARCHBOLD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC
8799	CURA OF WILLMAR	0.3%	47.7	A	MN	WILLMAR	78	—
8800	ELSBERRY MISSOURI HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	47.7	B	MO	ELSBERRY	56	—

Showing 8,751–8,800 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.