Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,701–8,750

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8701	BAPTIST HEALTH NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	48.5	B	NY	SCOTIA	262	—
8702	THE CHESAPEAKE	0.4%	48.5	B	VA	NEWPORT NEWS	52	VIRGINIA BAPTIST HOMES INC
8703	Eventide Lutheran Home	0.4%	48.5	A	MN	MOORHEAD	145	BLUE STONE THERAPY INC
8704	MONTANA MENTAL HEALTH NURSING HOME	0.3%	48.1	C	MT	LEWISTOWN	117	—
8705	MOTHER ANGELINE MCCRORY MANOR	0.3%	48.1	C	OH	COLUMBUS	126	THE CARMELITE SYSTEM INC
8706	St. Helena Parish Nursing Home	0.3%	48.1	C	LA	Greensburg	72	—
8707	Jenkins Care Community	0.3%	48.1	A	OH	WELLSTON	57	—
8708	PLEASANT VIEW LUTHER HOME	0.3%	48.1	C	IL	OTTAWA	90	—
8709	PIN OAKS LIVING CENTER	0.3%	48.1	D	MO	MEXICO	124	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8710	Hillsdale County Medical Care Facility	0.3%	48.1	A	MI	Hillsdale	170	—
8711	LUTHERAN SUNSET HOME	0.3%	48.1	A	ND	GRAFTON	87	—
8712	Ecumen North Branch	0.3%	48.1	B	MN	NORTH BRANCH	50	ECUMEN
8713	DAMAS HOSPITAL SNF	0.3%	48.1	A	PR	PONCE	25	—
8714	HIGHLAND MANOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	48.1	B	PA	EXETER	120	TWOMAGNETS LLC
8715	MASONICARE AT BISHOP WICKE HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.3%	48.1	B	CT	SHELTON	120	MASONICARE INC
8716	MARANATHA VILLAGE, INC	0.3%	48.1	C	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	—
8717	SEVEN OAKS NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.3%	48.1	B	TX	BONHAM	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
8718	SYLACAUGA HEALTH AND REHAB SERVICES	0.3%	48.1	A	AL	SYLACAUGA	149	NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES INC
8719	WESLEY VILLAGE	0.3%	48.1	A	IL	MACOMB	73	—
8720	ROYAL OAK NURSING CENTER	0.3%	48.1	B	FL	DADE CITY	120	HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT INC
8721	Morning Star Care Center	0.3%	48.1	A	WY	Fort Washakie	45	—
8722	St Luke Lutheran Nursing Home	0.3%	48.1	C	IA	Spencer	79	—
8723	North Pointe Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.3%	48.1	F	TX	Watauga	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
8724	LUTHERAN HOME	0.3%	48.1	B	OH	NAPOLEON	27	—
8725	THE WOLFE LIVING CENTER AT SUMMIT RIDGE	0.3%	48.1	A	OK	HARRAH	48	—
8726	PEACE CARE ST JOSEPH'S	0.3%	48.1	C	NJ	JERSEY CITY	139	PEACE CARE INC
8727	FATHER PURCELL MEMORIAL EXCEPTIONAL CHILDREN'S CTR	0.3%	48.1	A	AL	MONTGOMERY	58	—
8728	DE LA SALLE HALL	0.3%	48.1	A	NJ	LINCROFT	32	—
8729	WESTMINSTER POINT PLEASANT	0.3%	48.1	A	FL	BRADENTON	120	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
8730	CASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	48.1	B	TX	CENTERVILLE	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
8731	HAMPSHIRE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.3%	48.1	A	WV	ROMNEY	30	VALLEY HEALTH SYSTEM
8732	TREGO CO-LEMKE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL LTCU	0.3%	48.1	A	KS	WAKEENEY	37	—
8733	PUTNAM COUNTY CARE CENTER	0.3%	48.1	C	MO	UNIONVILLE	60	—
8734	LUTHERAN HOME, THE	0.3%	48.1	A	MO	CAPE GIRARDEAU	274	—
8735	St. Joseph's Villa, Inc.	0.3%	48.1	C	NE	David City	58	—
8736	ELON MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	48.1	B	FL	TAMPA	96	—
8737	MONTEFIORE NYACK HOSPITAL T C U	0.3%	48.1	—	NY	NYACK	16	Montefiore Nyack Hospital
8738	PILGRIM PLACE HEALTH SERVICES CENTER	0.3%	48.1	A	CA	CLAREMONT	62	—
8739	BARTON HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.3%	48.1	A	CA	SOUTH LAKE TAHOE	48	—
8740	Corewell Health Rehabilitation & Nursing Center -	0.3%	48.1	B	MI	Grand Rapids	165	COREWELL HEALTH
8741	NC State Veterans Home - Salisbury	0.3%	48.1	B	NC	Salisbury	99	—
8742	Cedar Manor Nursing Home	0.3%	48.1	B	IA	Tipton	54	CLARENCE NURSING HOME INC
8743	LOCUST GROVE VILLAGE	0.3%	48.1	B	KS	LA CROSSE	38	—
8744	Peter Becker Community	0.3%	48.1	A	PA	HARLEYSVILLE	72	—
8745	MCKAY HEALTHCARE & REHAB CTR	0.3%	48.1	A	WA	SOAP LAKE	42	—
8746	Wesley on Grand	0.3%	48.1	A	IA	Des Moines	80	WESLEYLIFE
8747	NORTHSHORE EXTENDED CARE HOSPITAL	0.3%	48.1	—	LA	LACOMBE	28	—
8748	JML CARE CENTER INC	0.3%	48.1	C	MA	FALMOUTH	132	—
8749	TIOGA MEDICAL CENTER LTC	0.3%	48.1	A	ND	TIOGA	30	—
8750	Kahl Home for the Aged & Infirmed	0.3%	48.1	B	IA	Davenport	135	—

Showing 8,701–8,750 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.