Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,651–8,700

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8651	WESTMINSTER WOODS ON JULINGTON CREEK	0.4%	48.5	A	FL	JACKSONVILLE	60	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
8652	Aston Park Health Care Center	0.4%	48.5	A	NC	Asheville	120	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
8653	Holdrege Memorial Homes, Inc	0.4%	48.5	A	NE	Holdrege	94	—
8654	WINFIELD REST HAVEN II, LLC	0.4%	48.5	A	KS	WINFIELD	41	GRACE TEAM LLC
8655	Harrogate	0.4%	48.5	B	NJ	LAKEWOOD	68	—
8656	REHABILITATION CENTER AT HARTSFIELD VILLAGE	0.4%	48.5	A	IN	MUNSTER	112	COMMUNITY FOUNDATION OF NORTHWEST INDIANA INC
8657	SYLVIA G THOMPSON RESIDENCE CENTER, INC	0.4%	48.5	F	MO	SEDALIA	120	—
8658	Cornerstone Villa	0.4%	48.5	A	MN	BUHL	43	—
8659	COMMUNITY CARE OF RUTHERFORD	0.4%	48.5	A	TN	MURFREESBORO	131	—
8660	HIDDEN LAKE CARE CENTER	0.4%	48.5	C	MO	RAYTOWN	112	—
8661	Bethany Life	0.4%	48.5	D	IA	Story City	126	—
8662	LUTHERAN HOME	0.4%	48.5	B	OH	WESTLAKE	104	—
8663	TIPPAH COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.4%	48.5	A	MS	RIPLEY	40	—
8664	RIVERSIDE LIFELONG HEALTH & REHAB SMITHFIELD	0.4%	48.5	B	VA	SMITHFIELD	34	RIVERSIDE HEALTHCARE ASSOCIATION INC
8665	ADDOLORATA VILLA	0.4%	48.5	D	IL	WHEELING	86	—
8666	FRIENDS EXTENDED CARE CENTER	0.4%	48.5	A	OH	YELLOW SPRINGS	59	—
8667	ST ANNES NURSING CENTER, ST ANNES RESIDENCE INC	0.4%	48.5	B	FL	MIAMI	213	ARCHDIOCESE OF MIAMI INC
8668	ROCKWOOD SOUTH HILL	0.4%	48.5	A	WA	SPOKANE	45	INPATIENT CONSULTANTS OF CALIFORNIA INC
8669	HOLLAND CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.4%	48.5	F	PA	HOLLAND	66	LME FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
8670	Presbyterian Communities Of South Carolina-Summerv	0.4%	48.5	A	SC	Summerville	48	PRESBYTERIAN COMMUNITIES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
8671	The Oaks at Radford Hills Healthcare Center	0.4%	48.5	D	TX	Abilene	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8672	MOUNTAIN VIEW CARE CENTER	0.4%	48.5	B	MT	RONAN	20	—
8673	OAK HILLS LIVING CENTER	0.4%	48.5	A	MN	NEW ULM	94	—
8674	S.E.M. HAVEN HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	48.5	A	OH	MILFORD	93	UNITED CHURCH HOMES MANAGEMENT INC
8675	Pleasantview Home	0.4%	48.5	A	IA	Kalona	66	—
8676	HOSPITAL AUTHORITY OF BROOKS COUNTY, GEORGIA, THE	0.4%	48.5	B	GA	QUITMAN	188	—
8677	St Francis Manor	0.4%	48.5	B	IA	Grinnell	78	—
8678	SUTTER SOLANO MEDICAL CTR SNF	0.4%	48.5	—	CA	VALLEJO	0	SUTTER VALLEY HOSPITALS
8679	Ossian Care Center	0.4%	48.5	A	IA	Ossian	46	—
8680	Bennett Hills Rehabilitation and Care Center	0.4%	48.5	D	ID	Gooding	80	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
8681	COURTYARD OF NATCHITOCHES	0.4%	48.5	A	LA	NATCHITOCHES	112	—
8682	BETHANY VILLAGE RETIREMENT CENTER	0.4%	48.5	A	PA	MECHANICSBURG	69	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
8683	Mt Greylock Extended Care Facility	0.4%	48.5	A	MA	PITTSFIELD	100	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
8684	THREE CROWNS PARK	0.4%	48.5	B	IL	EVANSTON	34	—
8685	A.G. RHODES HOME WESLEY WOODS	0.4%	48.5	B	GA	ATLANTA	150	UNIDINE CORPORATION
8686	Lifecare Greenbush Manor	0.4%	48.5	A	MN	GREENBUSH	40	—
8687	LA PLATA NURSING HOME	0.4%	48.5	B	MO	LA PLATA	52	—
8688	YALOBUSHA COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.4%	48.5	A	MS	WATER VALLEY	122	—
8689	CORNERSTONE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.4%	48.5	C	TX	TEXARKANA	40	—
8690	Terrell Healthcare Center	0.4%	48.5	C	TX	Terrell	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8691	Lgar Health And Rehabilitation	0.4%	48.5	A	PA	TURTLE CREEK	60	—
8692	WILLOW POINT REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.4%	48.5	B	NY	VESTAL	300	—
8693	Williamsport Home, The	0.4%	48.5	A	PA	WILLIAMSPORT	129	AFFINITY HEALTH SERVICES
8694	MASONIC VILLAGE AT WARMINSTER	0.4%	48.5	A	PA	WARMINSTER	43	MASONIC VILLAGES OF THE GRAND LODGE OF PENNSYLVANIA
8695	THE BUCKINGHAM	0.4%	48.5	C	TX	HOUSTON	0	GREYSTONE MANAGEMENT SERVICES COMPANY LLC
8696	ST ANDREW'S AT FRANCIS PLACE	0.4%	48.5	C	MO	EUREKA	106	ST ANDREWS RESOURCES FOR SENIORS SYSTEM
8697	Vancrest-Upper Valley	0.4%	48.5	B	OH	TROY	127	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
8698	WESTERN MD HOSPITAL CENTER	0.4%	48.5	A	MD	HAGERSTOWN	63	STATE OF MARYLAND CENTRAL PAYROLL BUREAU
8699	HAZEL HAWKINS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.4%	48.5	A	CA	HOLLISTER	119	—
8700	Parkview Home	0.4%	48.5	A	IA	Wayland	34	—

Showing 8,651–8,700 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.