Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,601–8,650

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8601	Akron Care Center, INC	0.4%	48.9	A	IA	Akron	45	LTC ACCOUNTING SERVICES LLC
8602	ALLIANCE HEALTH AT MARINA BAY	0.4%	48.9	A	MA	QUINCY	167	ALLIANCE HEALTH INC
8603	Veterans Home Of California - Barstow	0.4%	48.9	A	CA	BARSTOW	60	—
8604	TRINITY TRACE COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.4%	48.9	B	LA	COVINGTON	116	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
8605	MADISON VALLEY MANOR	0.4%	48.9	A	MT	ENNIS	32	—
8606	SLOVENE HOME FOR THE AGED	0.4%	48.9	A	OH	CLEVELAND	104	—
8607	JOHN KNOX MANOR INC I I	0.4%	48.9	A	AL	MONTGOMERY	98	—
8608	UNIVERSITY PLACE NURSING CENTER	0.4%	48.9	D	TX	HOUSTON	60	—
8609	LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR OF PALATINE	0.4%	48.9	A	IL	PALATINE	49	—
8610	PENINSULA MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	0.4%	48.9	—	CA	BURLINGAME	—	SUTTER BAY HOSPITALS
8611	LUTHERAN HAVEN NURSING HOME	0.4%	48.9	F	FL	OVIEDO	56	—
8612	Windmill Manor	0.4%	48.9	A	IA	Coralville	120	RESIDENTIAL ALTERNATIVES OF ILLINOIS INC
8613	Stonewall Living Center	0.4%	48.9	C	TX	Aspermont	0	—
8614	PHOEBE RICHLAND HCC	0.4%	48.9	A	PA	RICHLANDTOWN	143	COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC
8615	Fallbrook Commons	0.4%	48.9	A	ME	PORTLAND	102	—
8616	PLEASANT VIEW HOME	0.4%	48.9	A	KS	INMAN	122	—
8617	CHRISTIAN EXTENDED CARE & REHABILITATION	0.4%	48.9	B	MO	SAINT LOUIS	60	BETHESDA HEALTH GROUP INC
8618	Jeanne Jugan Residence	0.4%	48.9	A	RI	Pawtucket	49	—
8619	KENT COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.4%	48.9	C	TX	JAYTON	60	—
8620	JOSEPHINE CARING COMMUNITY	0.4%	48.9	B	WA	STANWOOD	160	—
8621	SETON HEALTH AT SCHUYLER RIDGE RESIDENTIAL H C	0.4%	48.9	B	NY	CLIFTON PARK	120	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
8622	Ball Pavilion, The	0.4%	48.9	B	PA	ERIE	85	—
8623	COLONIAL SPRINGS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.4%	48.9	B	MO	BUFFALO	134	—
8624	Sun Health La Loma Care Center	0.4%	48.9	C	AZ	LITCHFIELD PARK	43	SUN HEALTH SERVICES
8625	Linn Manor Care Center	0.4%	48.9	A	IA	Marion	38	—
8626	MERCYCARE MERCY GENERAL HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.4%	48.9	—	CA	SACRAMENTO	—	DIGNITY HEALTH
8627	LINWOOD NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	48.9	D	PA	SCRANTON	102	PENNSYLVANIA LTC INC
8628	Bay County Medical Care Facility	0.4%	48.9	B	MI	Essexville	161	—
8629	MEMORIAL NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	48.9	A	TX	DUMAS	46	—
8630	Healthsource Saginaw, Inc	0.4%	48.9	C	MI	Saginaw	213	—
8631	GRANT REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.4%	48.9	A	WV	PETERSBURG	110	—
8632	RIVER CITY LIVING COMMUNITY	0.4%	48.9	D	MO	JEFFERSON CITY	87	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8633	LINN COMMUNITY NURSING HOME	0.4%	48.9	B	KS	LINN	42	—
8634	Provo Rehabilitation and Nursing	0.4%	48.9	D	UT	Provo	220	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
8635	Luther Home	0.4%	48.9	A	WI	Marinette	80	—
8636	Oakland Heights	0.4%	48.9	A	NE	Oakland	45	—
8637	RENAISSANCE TERRACE	0.4%	48.9	B	TN	HARRIMAN	130	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
8638	MARION REGIONAL NURSING HOME	0.4%	48.9	A	AL	HAMILTON	79	NORTH MISSISSIPPI HEALTH SERVICES INC
8639	Southridge Rehab & Living Ctr	0.4%	48.9	C	ME	Biddeford	62	—
8640	AVERA PRINCE OF PEACE	0.4%	48.9	B	SD	SIOUX FALLS	126	AVERA HEALTH
8641	OTTERBEIN SPRINGBORO	0.4%	48.9	A	OH	CENTERVILLE	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
8642	EASTERN SHORE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	48.9	A	AL	DAPHNE	117	NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES INC
8643	ELMS, THE	0.4%	48.9	A	IL	MACOMB	98	—
8644	ST. BARBARA'S MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	0.4%	48.9	A	WV	MONONGAH	57	—
8645	GOWER CONVALESCENT CENTER, INC	0.4%	48.5	B	MO	GOWER	82	—
8646	SHEYENNE CROSSINGS CARE CENTER/TCU	0.4%	48.5	A	ND	WEST FARGO	64	EVENTIDE
8647	Brush Country Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.4%	48.5	F	TX	Austin	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8648	NEW JERSEY VETERANS MEMORIAL HOME AT PARAMUS	0.4%	48.5	B	NJ	PARAMUS	336	—
8649	ST JOSEPH'S MANOR	0.4%	48.5	C	PA	MEADOWBROOK	296	—
8650	AVANTARA HURON	0.4%	48.5	D	SD	HURON	119	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008

Showing 8,601–8,650 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.