Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,551–8,600

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8551	OTTERBEIN PORTAGE VALLEY	0.4%	49.3	B	OH	PEMBERVILLE	50	OTTERBEIN HOME
8552	Bethany Home - Brandon	0.4%	49.3	A	SD	BRANDON	60	AUGUSTANA LUTHERAN CHURCH
8553	SARATOGA RETIREMENT COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	49.3	A	CA	SARATOGA	94	PRS MANAGEMENT INC
8554	TOWN HALL ESTATES ARLINGTON, INC.	0.4%	49.3	F	TX	Arlington	116	—
8555	Markesan Resident Home	0.4%	49.3	A	WI	Markesan	50	—
8556	PEARL NORDAN CARE CENTER - NURSING	0.4%	49.3	C	TX	DALLAS	30	—
8557	TIMBERCREST CHURCH OF THE BRETHREN HOME	0.4%	49.3	A	IN	NORTH MANCHESTER	65	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
8558	The Home Place At Midway	0.4%	49.3	A	KY	Midway	28	CHRISTIAN CARE COMMUNITIES INC
8559	WI Veterans Home Moses Hall	0.4%	49.3	B	WI	King	192	STATE OF WISCONSIN
8560	Mahnomen Health Center	0.4%	49.3	D	MN	MAHNOMEN	32	—
8561	WESLEY MANOR HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	49.3	D	IN	FRANKFORT	96	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
8562	LAKE MINNETONKA SHORES	0.4%	49.3	A	MN	SPRING PARK	60	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
8563	DEERFIELD BEACH HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	49.3	C	FL	POMPANO BEACH	194	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
8564	Sandhills Care Center	0.4%	49.3	A	NE	Ainsworth	46	—
8565	NORSELAND NURSING HOME	0.4%	49.3	A	WI	WESTBY	50	—
8566	CATHERINE'S CARE CENTER, INC	0.4%	49.3	F	OH	STEUBENVILLE	26	—
8567	SAINT THERESE AT OXBOW LAKE	0.4%	49.3	A	MN	BROOKLYN PARK	64	SAINT THERESE
8568	BRETHREN VILLAGE	0.4%	49.3	A	PA	LANCASTER	120	UPMC
8569	OAKWOOD VILLAGE EAST HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.4%	49.3	C	WI	MADISON	40	OAKWOOD LUTHERAN SENIOR MINISTRIES INC
8570	Crestview Health & Rehabilitation	0.4%	49.3	F	NC	Mooresville	131	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
8571	HARBOURS EDGE	0.4%	49.3	C	FL	DELRAY BEACH	54	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
8572	Gordon Countryside Care	0.4%	48.9	A	NE	Gordon	40	—
8573	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSP & HOME	0.4%	48.9	B	MN	DAWSON	56	—
8574	Ira Davenport Memorial Hospital SNF/HRF	0.4%	48.9	A	NY	Bath	120	—
8575	LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR	0.4%	48.9	A	PA	PITTSBURGH	48	—
8576	ALTA BATES SUMMIT MED CTR - HERRICK CAMPUS D/P SNF	0.4%	48.9	—	CA	BERKELEY	—	SUTTER BAY HOSPITALS
8577	BETHEL NURSING HOME COMPANY INC	0.4%	48.9	B	NY	OSSINING	43	—
8578	Green Mountain Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.4%	48.9	B	VT	Colchester	73	—
8579	Pennswood Village	0.4%	48.9	A	PA	NEWTOWN	53	—
8580	VETERANS HOME OF CALIFORNIA - YOUNTVILLE - SNF	0.4%	48.9	B	CA	YOUNTVILLE	274	—
8581	Assumption Home	0.4%	48.9	A	MN	COLD SPRING	76	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
8582	BROOKSIDE SKILLED NURSING HOSPITAL	0.4%	48.9	A	CA	SAN MATEO	96	INPATIENT CONSULTANTS OF CALIFORNIA INC
8583	GOLDEN AGE LIVING CENTER	0.4%	48.9	B	MO	STOVER	61	GOLDEN AGE NURSING HOME DISTRICT
8584	Huron County Medical Care Facility	0.4%	48.9	B	MI	Bad Axe	112	—
8585	WESTMINSTER WINTER PARK	0.4%	48.9	C	FL	WINTER PARK	80	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
8586	ORLANDO HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	48.9	C	FL	ORLANDO	391	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
8587	SCOTCHMAN LIVING CENTER	0.4%	48.9	A	SD	PHILIP	42	—
8588	Divine Providence Community Home	0.4%	48.9	A	MN	SLEEPY EYE	50	—
8589	COVENANT VILLAGE CARE CENTER	0.4%	48.9	A	CA	TURLOCK	50	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
8590	CHATUGE REGIONAL NURSING HOME	0.4%	48.9	F	GA	HIAWASSEE	112	—
8591	DEKALB COUNTY REHAB & NURSING	0.4%	48.9	A	IL	DEKALB	190	—
8592	Wesley Park Centre	0.4%	48.9	C	IA	Newton	66	WESLEYLIFE
8593	Rex Rehab & Nursing Care Center	0.4%	48.9	A	NC	Raleigh	120	UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
8594	PLYMOUTH VILLAGE	0.4%	48.9	A	CA	REDLANDS	48	HUMANGOOD
8595	OAKRIDGE OF PLATTSBURG	0.4%	48.9	B	MO	PLATTSBURG	60	—
8596	Bethany Home, Inc	0.4%	48.9	A	NE	Minden	64	—
8597	UNITED PIONEER HOME	0.4%	48.9	A	WI	LUCK	50	—
8598	Bethea Baptist Healthcare Center	0.4%	48.9	A	SC	Darlington	88	SCBMA
8599	UNITED METHODIST COMMUNITIES AT PITMAN	0.4%	48.9	B	NJ	PITMAN	72	—
8600	WEDGEWOOD MANOR	0.4%	48.9	A	ND	CAVALIER	33	—

Showing 8,551–8,600 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.