Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,501–8,550

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8501	OAKS ON PARKWOOD SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.4%	49.7	A	AL	BESSEMER	130	NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES INC
8502	WESTMINSTER SUNCOAST	0.4%	49.7	B	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	120	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
8503	Grandvue Medical Care Facility	0.4%	49.7	A	MI	East Jordan	113	—
8504	ELLIS RESIDENTIAL & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	49.3	—	NY	SCHENECTADY	82	—
8505	THE GARDENS AT WINSTED LLC	0.4%	49.3	C	MN	WINSTED	70	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
8506	FARGO ELIM HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	49.3	B	ND	FARGO	88	CASSIA
8507	PALEMON GASKINS MEM NSG HOME	0.4%	49.3	A	GA	OCILLA	30	—
8508	Holy Spirit Retirement Home	0.4%	49.3	B	IA	Sioux City	78	—
8509	KETCHIKAN MED CTR NEW HORIZONS TRANSITIONAL CARE	0.4%	49.3	A	AK	KETCHIKAN	29	PEACEHEALTH
8510	OTTERBEIN LEBANON RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.4%	49.3	A	OH	LEBANON	154	OTTERBEIN HOME
8511	WASHINGTON ODD FELLOWS HOME	0.4%	49.3	C	WA	WALLA WALLA	53	—
8512	Wesbury United Methodist Commu	0.4%	49.3	B	PA	MEADVILLE	210	—
8513	AUTUMN YEARS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	49.3	B	OH	SABINA	40	—
8514	NORWEGIAN CHRISTIAN HOME AND HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	49.3	B	NY	BROOKLYN	135	—
8515	Ennis Care Center	0.4%	49.3	D	TX	Ennis	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8516	FAIRHAVEN CHRISTIAN RET CENTER	0.4%	49.3	B	IL	ROCKFORD	96	—
8517	WALNUT HILLS NURSING HOME	0.4%	49.3	B	OH	WALNUT CREEK	56	—
8518	Mountainview Nursing Home	0.4%	49.3	C	SC	Spartanburg	132	—
8519	LUTHER OAKS	0.4%	49.3	A	IL	BLOOMINGTON	19	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
8520	Trinity Place	0.4%	49.3	B	NC	Albemarle	76	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
8521	COLONIAL PINES HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.4%	49.3	C	TX	SAN AUGUSTINE	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
8522	CHATEAU GIRARDEAU	0.4%	49.3	A	MO	CAPE GIRARDEAU	75	—
8523	LOGAN MANOR COMMUNITY HEALTH SERVICES	0.4%	49.3	B	KS	LOGAN	36	—
8524	HEALTH CENTER AT THE RENAISSANCE	0.4%	49.3	A	OH	OLMSTED TWP	85	ELIZA JENNINGS SENIOR CARE NETWORK
8525	SAINT PAUL HOMES	0.4%	49.3	A	PA	GREENVILLE	192	—
8526	MANOR COURT OF PRINCETON	0.4%	49.3	A	IL	PRINCETON	125	RESIDENTIAL ALTERNATIVES OF ILLINOIS INC
8527	HERON'S KEY	0.4%	49.3	A	WA	GIG HARBOR	30	—
8528	Wauneta Care and Therapy Center	0.4%	49.3	B	NE	Wauneta	36	—
8529	Broadway House for Continuing Care	0.4%	49.3	A	NJ	NEWARK	78	—
8530	THE REUTLINGER COMMUNITY	0.4%	49.3	B	CA	DANVILLE	60	ESKATON PROPERTIES INCORPORATED
8531	GREELEY CARE HOME	0.4%	49.3	B	NE	GREELEY	26	—
8532	BAPTIST VILLAGE, INC.	0.4%	49.3	B	GA	WAYCROSS	254	—
8533	LAKELAND HILLS CENTER	0.4%	49.3	D	FL	LAKELAND	120	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
8534	HENRY J CARTER SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.4%	49.3	C	NY	MANHATTAN	164	NEW YORK CITY HEALTH AND HOSPITALS CORPORATION
8535	CRANDALL NURSING HOME	0.4%	49.3	A	OH	SEBRING	150	—
8536	Lebanon Valley Brethren Home	0.4%	49.3	A	PA	PALMYRA	88	—
8537	PACIFIC CARE CENTER	0.4%	49.3	C	MO	PACIFIC	118	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8538	Prairie Meadows Rehabilitation and Healthcare Cent	0.4%	49.3	F	TX	Floresville	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8539	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY LENNOX	0.4%	49.3	D	SD	LENNOX	43	—
8540	Bay Bluffs-Emmet County Medical Care Facility	0.4%	49.3	A	MI	Harbor Springs	120	—
8541	Maine Veterans Home - Caribou	0.4%	49.3	A	ME	CARIBOU	40	MAINE VETERANS HOME
8542	Kittson Healthcare	0.4%	49.3	B	MN	HALLOCK	40	—
8543	OZARKS METHODIST MANOR, THE	0.4%	49.3	A	MO	MARIONVILLE	78	—
8544	CARMEL RICHMOND HEALTHCARE AND REHAB CENTER	0.4%	49.3	B	NY	STATEN ISLAND	300	CATHOLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS
8545	NELSON COUNTY HEALTH SYSTEM CARE CENTER	0.4%	49.3	C	ND	MCVILLE	35	—
8546	SEVEN SISTERS LIVING CENTER	0.4%	49.3	A	SD	HOT SPRINGS	52	—
8547	ST CROIX HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	49.3	A	WI	NEW RICHMOND	50	—
8548	PHOEBE BERKS	0.4%	49.3	A	PA	WERNERSVILLE	119	PHYSICIAN AND TACTICAL HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
8549	Stewartville Care Center	0.4%	49.3	A	MN	STEWARTVILLE	50	—
8550	COLVILLE TRIBAL CONVALESCENT C	0.4%	49.3	A	WA	NESPELEM	44	—

Showing 8,501–8,550 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.