Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,451–8,500

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8451	THE VILLAGE AT INCARNATE WORD	0.4%	49.7	A	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	INCARNATE WORD RETIREMENT COMMUNITY, INC
8452	Casa Real	0.4%	49.7	B	NM	Santa Fe	118	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
8453	BENEDICTINE LIVING COMMUNITY OWATONNA	0.4%	49.7	A	MN	OWATONNA	79	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
8454	CRESTVIEW RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.4%	49.7	A	TX	BRYAN	0	METHODIST RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
8455	Bethany Lutheran Home	0.4%	49.7	B	IA	Council Bluffs	112	—
8456	Davenport Lutheran Home	0.4%	49.7	B	IA	Davenport	98	—
8457	Rocky Knoll Health Care	0.4%	49.7	A	WI	Plymouth	149	HEALTHPRO HERITAGE LLC
8458	Oakview Medical Care Facility	0.4%	49.7	A	MI	Ludington	96	—
8459	BENEDICTINE HEALTH CENTER INNSBRUCK	0.4%	49.7	A	MN	NEW BRIGHTON	105	—
8460	BERGEN NEW BRIDGE MEDICAL CENTER	0.4%	49.7	B	NJ	PARAMUS	574	—
8461	COMMUNITY HOSPITAL OF SAN BERNARDINO DP SNF	0.4%	49.7	A	CA	SAN BERNARDINO	88	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
8462	OTTERBEIN GAHANNA	0.4%	49.7	A	OH	GAHANNA	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
8463	WINCHESTER GARDENS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	49.7	A	NJ	MAPLEWOOD	30	SPRINGPOINT SENIOR LIVING INC
8464	BIRCHWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	49.7	B	MN	FOREST LAKE	100	SENIOR CARE COMMUNITIES
8465	BUFFALO LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	49.7	A	MN	BUFFALO LAKE	49	—
8466	JEFFERSON DAVIS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL ECF	0.4%	49.7	A	MS	PRENTISS	55	FORREST COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL
8467	North Carolina State Veterans Home Kernersville	0.4%	49.7	A	NC	Kernersville	120	—
8468	MEADOW LAKES	0.4%	49.7	B	NJ	EAST WINDSOR	60	SPRINGPOINT SENIOR LIVING INC
8469	CLERMONT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	49.7	A	FL	CLERMONT	182	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
8470	Ware Memorial Care Center	0.4%	49.7	C	TX	Amarillo	0	BAPTIST COMMUNITY SERVICES
8471	st anne's retirement community	0.4%	49.7	A	PA	COLUMBIA	119	—
8472	Telford Terrace	0.4%	49.7	A	KY	Richmond	26	—
8473	OVERTON COUNTY HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.4%	49.7	A	TN	LIVINGSTON	125	—
8474	KENDALL HOUSE WELLNESS & REHABILITATION	0.4%	49.7	B	TX	BOERNE	0	MORNINGSIDE MINISTRIES
8475	MEMORIAL CARE CENTER	0.4%	49.7	A	IL	BELLEVILLE	82	BETHESDA HEALTH GROUP INC
8476	Arkansas Health Center	0.4%	49.7	A	AR	BENTON	290	—
8477	PILGRIM MANOR	0.4%	49.7	A	CT	CROMWELL	60	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
8478	PONCHATOULA COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.4%	49.7	A	LA	PONCHATOULA	140	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
8479	HUMPHREYS COUNTY CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	49.7	C	TN	WAVERLY	91	—
8480	COVENANT LIVING OF KEENE	0.4%	49.7	A	NH	KEENE	20	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
8481	THE TERRACES AT SAN JOAQUIN GARDENS VILLAGE	0.4%	49.7	A	CA	FRESNO	54	HUMANGOOD
8482	ST MARK VILLAGE	0.4%	49.7	B	FL	PALM HARBOR	80	—
8483	WESTMINSTER WOODS AT HUNTINGDO	0.4%	49.7	A	PA	HUNTINGDON	64	PHI
8484	UNIVERSITY RETIREMENT COMMUNITY AT DAVIS	0.4%	49.7	A	CA	DAVIS	37	PACIFIC RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
8485	MOUNT CARMEL REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.4%	49.7	A	NH	MANCHESTER	122	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
8486	LENOIR HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	49.7	B	MO	COLUMBIA	56	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES
8487	MARYLAND BAPTIST AGED HOME	0.4%	49.7	A	MD	BALTIMORE	29	—
8488	ORCHARD VIEW REHABILITATION & SKILLED NURSING CTR	0.4%	49.7	B	GA	COLUMBUS	200	—
8489	BIG HORN SENIOR LIVING	0.4%	49.7	—	MT	HARDIN	36	—
8490	ADVENTIST HEALTH SONORA - D/P SNF	0.4%	49.7	A	CA	SONORA	68	ADVENTIST HEALTH SYSTEM WEST
8491	Fraser Villa	0.4%	49.7	B	MI	Fraser	111	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
8492	GARDEN VILLAGE	0.4%	49.7	B	WA	YAKIMA	101	—
8493	Southlake Village Rehabilitation & Care Center	0.4%	49.7	A	NE	Lincoln	126	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
8494	Wayne County Nursing Home	0.4%	49.7	A	NY	Lyons	192	—
8495	Trinity Elms	0.4%	49.7	B	NC	Clemmons	100	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
8496	Bishop Gadsden Episcopal Health Care Center	0.4%	49.7	B	SC	Charleston	41	—
8497	BEAR CREEK NURSING CENTER	0.4%	49.7	C	FL	HUDSON	120	HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT INC
8498	Evergreen Health Center	0.4%	49.7	A	WI	Oshkosh	80	—
8499	RIVERSIDE LIFELONG HEALTH & REHABILITATION SANDERS	0.4%	49.7	C	VA	GLOUCESTER	55	RIVERSIDE HEALTHCARE ASSOCIATION INC
8500	Fahrney-Keedy Memorial Home	0.4%	49.7	B	MD	BOONSBORO	106	FAHRNEY KEEDY MEMORIAL HOME INC

Showing 8,451–8,500 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.