Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,401–8,450

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8401	Ararat Nursing Facility	0.4%	50.1	A	CA	MISSION HILLS	254	ARARAT HOME OF LOS ANGELES INC
8402	Cedar Lake Health and Rehab Center	0.4%	50.1	C	WI	West Bend	75	—
8403	CHERRY BROOK HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	50.1	C	CT	CANTON	100	—
8404	Canterbury Place	0.4%	50.1	C	PA	PITTSBURGH	115	UPMC
8405	REGENTS POINT - WINDCREST	0.4%	50.1	A	CA	IRVINE	59	HUMANGOOD
8406	BRIAN CENTER OF FINCASTLE	0.4%	50.1	A	VA	FINCASTLE	60	KISSITO HEALTHCARE INC
8407	QUABOAG REHABILITATION & SKILLED CARE FACILITY	0.4%	50.1	A	MA	WEST BROOKFIELD	166	ASCENTRIA CARE ALLIANCE INC
8408	PARKVIEW MANOR NURSING HOME	0.4%	50.1	A	MN	ELLSWORTH	37	—
8409	Holton Manor	0.4%	50.1	A	WI	ELKHORN	60	CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
8410	THE PINES HEALTHCARE & REHAB CENTERS OLEAN CAMPUS	0.4%	50.1	A	NY	OLEAN	120	COUNTY OF CATTARAUGUS
8411	BOULEVARD MANOR, LLC	0.4%	50.1	F	MI	DETROIT	87	—
8412	Luther Haven	0.4%	50.1	A	MN	MONTEVIDEO	55	—
8413	ST JAMES LIVING CENTER	0.4%	50.1	D	MO	SAINT JAMES	90	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8414	Rocky Mountain Care - Willow Springs	0.4%	50.1	B	UT	Tooele	112	BEAVER CITY CORPORATION
8415	KNOLLWOOD HSC	0.4%	50.1	A	DC	WASHINGTON	69	—
8416	DEPT OF STATE HOSPITALS - METROPOLITAN SNF	0.4%	50.1	B	CA	NORWALK	102	—
8417	OC Reading Center LLC	0.4%	50.1	F	MA	READING	123	BEAR MOUNTAIN HEALTHCARE LLC
8418	OTTERBEIN MONCLOVA	0.4%	50.1	B	OH	MONCLOVA	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
8419	South Lincoln Nursing Center	0.4%	50.1	A	WY	Kemmerer	24	—
8420	DJ Jacobetti Home for Veterans	0.4%	50.1	A	MI	Marquette	81	STATE OF MICHIGAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
8421	FOUNTAINS, THE	0.4%	50.1	A	CA	YUBA CITY	145	ADVENTIST HEALTH SYSTEM WEST
8422	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - WINTHROP	0.4%	50.1	F	MN	WINTHROP	32	—
8423	TOWN & COUNTRY	0.4%	50.1	B	CA	SANTA ANA	96	THE CHRISTIAN AND MISSIONARY ALLIANCE
8424	Mill-Pond	0.4%	50.1	A	IA	Ankeny	60	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
8425	ELISEO	0.4%	50.1	C	WA	TACOMA	187	—
8426	THE VALLEY VIEW CENTER FOR NURSING CARE AND REHAB	0.4%	50.1	C	NY	GOSHEN	360	—
8427	Holland Home Breton Rehabilitation & Living Centre	0.4%	50.1	A	MI	Grand Rapids	58	CHRISTIAN LIVING SERVICES
8428	MASONICARE HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	50.1	B	CT	WALLINGFORD	336	MASONICARE INC
8429	CARLSBAD BY THE SEA	0.4%	50.1	A	CA	CARLSBAD	33	FRONT PORCH COMMUNITIES AND SERVICES
8430	MEADOWOOD A HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	50.1	A	CA	STOCKTON	100	ESKATON PROPERTIES INCORPORATED
8431	OUR LADY OF MERCY LIFE CENTER	0.4%	50.1	B	NY	GUILDERLAND	160	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
8432	BARTOW CENTER	0.4%	50.1	C	FL	BARTOW	120	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
8433	WAYNE COUNTY CARE CENTER	0.4%	50.1	A	OH	WOOSTER	50	—
8434	AMERICAN LUTHERAN HOME-MENOMONIE	0.4%	50.1	A	WI	MENOMONIE	37	LEADINGCHOICE NETWORK LLC
8435	FESTUS MANOR	0.4%	50.1	C	MO	FESTUS	150	—
8436	GINGER COVE	0.4%	50.1	A	MD	ANNAPOLIS	55	—
8437	NESHOBA COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.4%	50.1	A	MS	PHILADELPHIA	145	—
8438	MAGNOLIA MANOR METHODIST NSG C	0.4%	50.1	A	GA	AMERICUS	238	—
8439	Rosecrest Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	0.4%	50.1	A	SC	Inman	75	LUTHERAN HOMES OF SC INC
8440	Bingham Memorial Skilled Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.4%	49.7	B	ID	Blackfoot	27	—
8441	Shady Lane Nursing Care Center	0.4%	49.7	A	WI	Manitowoc	50	—
8442	SRMC Long Term Care, LLC dba Pole Creek Estates	0.4%	49.7	C	NE	Sidney	63	—
8443	Silver City Care Center	0.4%	49.7	C	NM	Silver City	100	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
8444	WOODRUFF COUNTY HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	49.7	A	AR	MCCRORY	120	—
8445	AVANTARA ARROWHEAD	0.4%	49.7	F	SD	RAPID CITY	68	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
8446	Baptist Village of Oklahoma City	0.4%	49.7	B	OK	Oklahoma City	120	BAPTIST VILLAGE RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES OF OKLAHOMA INC
8447	MOORHEAD RESTORATIVE CARE CENTER	0.4%	49.7	C	MN	MOORHEAD	52	—
8448	LIFE CARE CENTER OF LAGRANGE	0.4%	49.7	C	IN	LAGRANGE	87	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8449	GOLDENROD MANOR	0.4%	49.7	C	IA	CLARINDA	40	—
8450	SUNNYSIDE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	49.7	—	MN	CLOQUET	44	—

Showing 8,401–8,450 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.