Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,351–8,400

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8351	CEDARBROOK SENIOR CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	50.4	A	PA	ALLENTOWN	670	MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
8352	Pioneer Manor Nursing Home	0.4%	50.4	A	NE	Hay Springs	57	—
8353	EMMANUEL NURSING HOME	0.4%	50.4	D	MN	DETROIT LAKES	57	—
8354	HELLENIC NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	50.4	B	MA	CANTON	154	—
8355	GIBSON COMMUNITY HSP ANNEX	0.4%	50.4	A	IL	GIBSON CITY	16	—
8356	PARKWAY MANOR	0.4%	50.4	B	IL	MARION	131	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
8357	Tuff Memorial Home	0.4%	50.4	B	MN	HILLS	48	—
8358	OHIO LIVING QUAKER HEIGHTS	0.4%	50.4	B	OH	WAYNESVILLE	66	—
8359	Stone Rehabilitation And Senior Living	0.4%	50.4	C	MA	NEWTON UPPER FALLS	82	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
8360	Trinity Care Center	0.4%	50.4	A	MN	FARMINGTON	80	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
8361	GUTHRIE CORTLAND MEDICAL CENTER	0.4%	50.4	B	NY	CORTLAND	80	THE GUTHRIE CLINIC
8362	Lutheran Retirement Home	0.4%	50.4	A	IA	Northwood	42	—
8363	ASHLAND HEALTH SERVICES	0.4%	50.4	B	WI	ASHLAND	117	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
8364	Laurens Care Center	0.4%	50.4	A	IA	Laurens	38	—
8365	HILLCREST CARE CENTER	0.4%	50.4	A	CO	WRAY	45	—
8366	Wakefield Health Care Center	0.4%	50.4	A	NE	Wakefield	40	—
8367	CROWN POINT HEALTH SUITES	0.4%	50.4	B	TX	LUBBOCK	0	FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
8368	Valley View Village	0.4%	50.4	B	IA	Des Moines	79	CASSIA
8369	PARKWAY PLACE	0.4%	50.4	A	TX	HOUSTON	0	BUCKNER RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
8370	BUCKNER WESTMINSTER PLACE	0.4%	50.4	C	TX	LONGVIEW	0	BUCKNER RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
8371	D'YOUVILLE CARE FOR ADVANCED THERAPY	0.4%	50.4	A	MA	LOWELL	33	THE CARMELITE SYSTEM INC
8372	MRC THE CROSSINGS	0.4%	50.4	A	TX	LEAGUE CITY	0	METHODIST RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
8373	Beechwood Health Care Center, Inc.	0.4%	50.4	A	NY	GETZVILLE	272	—
8374	West Wind Village	0.4%	50.4	A	MN	MORRIS	45	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
8375	SHERIDAN COUNTY HOSPITAL LTCU	0.4%	50.4	A	KS	HOXIE	32	—
8376	VILLAGE CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER, THE	0.4%	50.4	A	CO	WESTMINSTER	60	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
8377	INGLESIDE AT KING FARM	0.4%	50.4	A	MD	ROCKVILLE	45	WESTMINSTER INGLESIDE KING FARM RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES INC
8378	LA SALLE COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.4%	50.4	A	IL	OTTAWA	79	—
8379	NORWOOD CROSSING	0.4%	50.4	B	IL	CHICAGO	131	OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE LLC
8380	MORRISON NURSING HOME	0.4%	50.4	C	NH	WHITEFIELD	57	—
8381	OTTERBEIN-CRIDERSVILLE	0.4%	50.1	A	OH	CRIDERSVILLE	50	OTTERBEIN HOME
8382	Harmony Physical Rehabilitation	0.4%	50.1	A	PA	MONROEVILLE	30	CONCORDIA CARE NETWORK
8383	OTTERBEIN AT GRANVILLE	0.4%	50.1	A	OH	GRANVILLE	22	OTTERBEIN HOME
8384	EDGEHILL NURSING AND REHAB CEN	0.4%	50.1	B	PA	GLENSIDE	60	PENNSYLVANIA LTC INC
8385	WINTER HAVEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	50.1	D	FL	WINTER HAVEN	140	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
8386	WIREGRASS REHABILITATION CENTER & NURSING HOME	0.4%	50.1	A	AL	GENEVA	96	—
8387	Homestead Health Services	0.4%	50.1	C	WI	New Holstein	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
8388	PARADIGM AT BAY CITY	0.4%	50.1	B	TX	BAY CITY	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
8389	HOLLADAY PARK PLAZA	0.4%	50.1	A	OR	PORTLAND	51	—
8390	Providence Child Center	0.4%	50.1	A	OR	PORTLAND	58	—
8391	SOLIVITA OF ECHO MANOR	0.4%	50.1	C	OH	PICKERINGTON	99	—
8392	RIVERSIDE	0.4%	50.1	A	WI	LA CROSSE	123	—
8393	SAINT TERESA REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.4%	50.1	A	NH	MANCHESTER	51	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
8394	LIVEWELL CONNECTICUT	0.4%	50.1	A	CT	PLANTSVILLE	120	—
8395	Augustana Chapel View Care Center	0.4%	50.1	A	MN	HOPKINS	100	CASSIA
8396	Friendship Home Association	0.4%	50.1	B	IA	Audubon	46	—
8397	FAIR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	50.1	C	WI	MAUSTON	50	—
8398	Fair Meadow Nursing Home	0.4%	50.1	A	MN	FERTILE	42	—
8399	CURA OF SANDSTONE	0.4%	50.1	B	MN	SANDSTONE	50	—
8400	EVERETT TRANSITIONAL CARE SERVICES	0.4%	50.1	A	WA	EVERETT	62	BETHANY OF THE NORTHWEST

Showing 8,351–8,400 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.