Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,301–8,350

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8301	BLEDSOE COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.4%	50.8	A	TN	PIKEVILLE	50	—
8302	MOUNT ASCENSION TRANSITIONAL CARE OF CASCADIA	0.4%	50.8	F	MT	HELENA	108	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
8303	Northgate Plaza	0.4%	50.8	D	TX	Irving	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8304	HRH TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT(A D/B/A ENTITY OF HRHS)	0.4%	50.8	A	PA	MEADOWBROOK	21	HOLY REDEEMER HEALTH SYSTEM
8305	PRINCETON CARE CENTER	0.4%	50.8	D	NJ	PRINCETON	119	—
8306	Presbyterian Communities Of South Carolina-Florenc	0.4%	50.8	B	SC	Florence	25	PRESBYTERIAN COMMUNITIES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
8307	Hillcrest Home	0.4%	50.8	A	IA	Sumner	61	—
8308	Garden View Care Center	0.4%	50.8	F	IA	Shenandoah	50	CAMPBELL STREET SERVICES LLC
8309	Church of Christ Care Center	0.4%	50.8	B	MI	Clinton Township	129	—
8310	MEDFORD LEAS	0.4%	50.8	A	NJ	MEDFORD	24	—
8311	TEL HAI RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.4%	50.8	A	PA	HONEY BROOK	119	—
8312	White River Health Care Center	0.4%	50.8	A	SD	WHITE RIVER	52	—
8313	LINCOLN COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.4%	50.8	C	MO	LINCOLN	66	—
8314	Good Samaritan Ambassador	0.4%	50.8	A	MN	NEW HOPE	77	SANFORD
8315	LEWIS COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL-NURSING HOME UNIT	0.4%	50.8	B	NY	LOWVILLE	160	—
8316	Ruthven Community Care Center	0.4%	50.8	A	IA	Ruthven	46	LTC ACCOUNTING SERVICES LLC
8317	JULIA POUND CARE CENTER	0.4%	50.8	C	PA	INDIANA	96	PHI
8318	Carondelet Village Care Center	0.4%	50.8	A	MN	SAINT PAUL	45	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
8319	LEGACY ESTATE LONG TERM CARE	0.4%	50.8	A	TX	COMANCHE	0	—
8320	Madison Healthcare Services	0.4%	50.8	B	MN	MADISON	51	—
8321	HANNA HOUSE SKILLED NURSING CE	0.4%	50.8	—	OH	CLEVELAND	25	—
8322	WINNING WHEELS	0.4%	50.4	B	IL	PROPHETSTOWN	88	—
8323	MANOR COURT OF ROCHELLE	0.4%	50.4	C	IL	ROCHELLE	92	RESIDENTIAL ALTERNATIVES OF ILLINOIS INC
8324	WOODBURY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	50.4	A	TN	WOODBURY	82	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
8325	Platte County Legacy Home	0.4%	50.4	B	WY	Wheatland	50	—
8326	Evans Senior Living Community	0.4%	50.4	A	IA	Cresco	43	—
8327	JEFFREY & SUSAN BRUDNICK CENTER FOR LIVING	0.4%	50.4	A	MA	PEABODY	180	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
8328	PEMBILIER NURSING CENTER	0.4%	50.4	A	ND	WALHALLA	31	—
8329	ASPEN TRACE HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.4%	50.4	B	IN	GREENWOOD	104	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
8330	Focused Care of Gilmer	0.4%	50.4	F	TX	Gilmer	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
8331	UNION COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.4%	50.4	C	GA	BLAIRSVILLE	150	—
8332	Mitchell Care Center	0.4%	50.4	B	NE	Mitchell	50	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
8333	New Mexico State Veterans Home	0.4%	50.4	C	NM	Truth or Consequences	131	STATE OF NEW MEXICO
8334	THE NEW JEWISH HOME, MANHATTAN	0.4%	50.4	F	NY	NEW YORK	514	JEWISH HOME LIFECARE
8335	Vista Grande Villa	0.4%	50.4	D	MI	Jackson	60	—
8336	MANOR COURT OF FREEPORT	0.4%	50.4	B	IL	FREEPORT	117	RESIDENTIAL ALTERNATIVES OF ILLINOIS INC
8337	Michigan Veteran Homes at Grand Rapids	0.4%	50.4	A	MI	Grand Rapids	128	STATE OF MICHIGAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
8338	ASPIRE OF GOWRIE	0.4%	50.4	F	IA	GOWRIE	19	—
8339	CRA-MAR Meadows	0.4%	50.4	C	RI	Cranston	41	—
8340	Faith Lutheran Home	0.4%	50.4	A	IA	Osage	50	—
8341	GEER NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	50.4	C	CT	CANAAN	120	—
8342	Trinity Grove	0.4%	50.4	B	NC	Wilmington	100	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
8343	GREENE COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	50.4	A	MS	LEAKESVILLE	60	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
8344	TERENCE CARDINAL COOKE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	50.4	B	NY	NEW YORK	679	CATHOLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS
8345	Mission at Castle Rock	0.4%	50.4	B	WY	Green River	59	MISSION HEALTH SERVICES
8346	The Meadows Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.4%	50.4	D	TX	Dallas	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8347	THE MOORINGS AT LEWES	0.4%	50.4	A	DE	LEWES	40	SPRINGPOINT SENIOR LIVING INC
8348	St. Joseph's Care Center	0.4%	50.4	A	TX	McGregor	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8349	CITRUS HEIGHTS HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	50.4	A	CA	COVINA	32	—
8350	The Suites Rio Vista	0.4%	50.4	D	NM	Rio Rancho	136	EDURO HEALTHCARE LLC

Showing 8,301–8,350 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.