Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,251–8,300

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8251	WESTMINSTER TOWERS	0.4%	51.1	C	FL	ORLANDO	120	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
8252	AVERA BRADY HEALTH AND REHAB	0.4%	51.1	B	SD	MITCHELL	84	AVERA HEALTH
8253	LOGAN COUNTY SENIOR LIVING INC	0.4%	51.1	C	KS	OAKLEY	30	—
8254	OTTERBEIN NEW ALBANY	0.4%	51.1	B	OH	NEW ALBANY	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
8255	SUNSET HOME INC	0.4%	51.1	B	KS	CONCORDIA	45	—
8256	CLARIDGE COURT	0.4%	51.1	C	KS	PRAIRIE VILLAGE	45	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
8257	BROOKSIDE REHABILITATION AND WELLNESS	0.4%	51.1	D	CO	CASTLE ROCK	32	—
8258	Millard County Care and Rehabilitation	0.4%	51.1	C	UT	Delta	60	TRADITIONS HEALTH CARE INC
8259	Riceville Family Care and Therapy Center	0.4%	51.1	A	IA	Riceville	34	CONTINUUM HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
8260	GOOD SAMARITAN CARE CENTER	0.4%	51.1	A	MO	COLE CAMP	72	—
8261	HILLVIEW HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	51.1	A	TN	ELIZABETHTON	76	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
8262	HERITAGE HEALTH-HOOPESTON	0.4%	51.1	C	IL	HOOPESTON	75	HERITAGE OPERATIONS GROUP LLC
8263	UNC Rex Rehab & Nursing Care Center of Apex	0.4%	51.1	A	NC	Apex	107	UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
8264	SAINT FRANCIS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.4%	51.1	A	NH	LACONIA	51	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
8265	Temple View Transitional Care Center	0.4%	51.1	C	ID	Rexburg	119	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
8266	VILLAGE AT COOK SPRINGS SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.4%	51.1	A	AL	PELL CITY	168	NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES INC
8267	ARKANSAS STATE VETERANS HOME AT NORTH LITTLE ROCK	0.4%	51.1	A	AR	NORTH LITTLE ROCK	96	—
8268	St. Catherine Center	0.4%	51.1	C	TX	Waco	0	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
8269	WENTZ LIVING CENTER	0.4%	51.1	A	ND	NAPOLEON	36	—
8270	STRASBURG NURSING HOME	0.4%	51.1	A	ND	STRASBURG	30	—
8271	PROVIDENCE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	51.1	B	IN	ST MARY OF THE WOODS	70	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
8272	NEIGHBORS - WEST NEIGHBORHOOD (THE)	0.4%	50.8	A	WI	MENOMONIE	46	COUNTY OF DUNN
8273	PRESIDENTIAL OAKS	0.4%	50.8	B	NH	CONCORD	85	—
8274	PAVILION AT BRMC, THE	0.4%	50.8	A	PA	BRADFORD	95	—
8275	PASSAVANT RETIREMENT AND HEALT	0.4%	50.8	B	PA	ZELIENOPLE	102	—
8276	Timely Mission Nursing Home	0.4%	50.8	A	IA	Buffalo Center	42	—
8277	NEW HAVEN CARE CENTER	0.4%	50.8	B	MO	NEW HAVEN	90	—
8278	KNOX COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.4%	50.8	A	IL	KNOXVILLE	169	—
8279	CITIZENS MEDICAL CENTER LTCU	0.4%	50.8	A	KS	COLBY	60	—
8280	OZANAM HALL OF QUEENS NURSING HOME INC	0.4%	50.8	A	NY	BAYSIDE	432	THE CARMELITE SYSTEM INC
8281	SOLHEIM SENIOR COMMUNITY	0.4%	50.8	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	76	—
8282	WYNDRIDGE HEALTH AND REHAB CTR	0.4%	50.8	B	TN	CROSSVILLE	157	—
8283	IMMANUEL SKILLED CARE CENTER	0.4%	50.8	C	MT	KALISPELL	155	—
8284	RIDGEWOOD MANOR HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	50.8	B	GA	DALTON	102	HLTC INC
8285	DELANEY PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	50.8	B	FL	ORLANDO	89	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
8286	ARCHBOLD LIVING CAMILLA	0.4%	50.8	B	GA	CAMILLA	156	JOHN D ARCHBOLD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC
8287	Chemung County Health Center - Nursing Facility	0.4%	50.8	A	NY	Elmira	200	COUNTY OF CHEMUNG
8288	ANDBE HOME, INC	0.4%	50.8	A	KS	NORTON	50	—
8289	MAJESTIC CARE OF SHERIDAN	0.4%	50.8	A	IN	SHERIDAN	80	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
8290	GREENWOOD HOUSE HOME FOR THE JEWISH AGED	0.4%	50.8	C	NJ	TRENTON	137	—
8291	MercyOne North Iowa Medical Services	0.4%	50.8	—	IA	Mason City	22	—
8292	MASONIC VILLAGE AT ELIZABETHTOWN	0.4%	50.8	B	PA	ELIZABETHTOWN	434	MASONIC VILLAGES OF THE GRAND LODGE OF PENNSYLVANIA
8293	Clement Manor Health Care Center	0.4%	50.8	A	WI	GREENFIELD	50	FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHRISTIAN CHARITY SPONSORED MINISTRIES INC
8294	Jefferson Community Health & Life Gardenside	0.4%	50.8	A	NE	Fairbury	39	—
8295	River Valley Health And Rehabilitation Center Llc	0.4%	50.8	A	MN	REDWOOD FALLS	43	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
8296	SENECA DISTRICT HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.4%	50.8	A	CA	CHESTER	16	—
8297	Reunion Plaza Senior Care and Rehabilitation Cente	0.4%	50.8	F	TX	Texarkana	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8298	Community Pride Care Center	0.4%	50.8	B	NE	Battle Creek	50	—
8299	NEW BETHANY SKILLED NURSING	0.4%	50.8	B	CA	LOS BANOS	35	—
8300	GRAND VALLEY HEALTH & REHAB	0.4%	50.8	A	IN	MARTINSVILLE	100	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL

Showing 8,251–8,300 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.