Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,201–8,250

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8201	ST LUKE LIVING CENTER	0.4%	51.4	A	KS	MARION	32	—
8202	The Haven of Paris	0.4%	51.4	F	IL	PARIS	128	FEJCC TRUST
8203	EGRET COVE CENTER	0.4%	51.4	C	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	120	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
8204	Focused Care of Waxahachie	0.4%	51.4	F	TX	Waxahachie	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
8205	PEACE CARE ST ANN'S	0.4%	51.4	A	NJ	JERSEY CITY	120	PEACE CARE INC
8206	The Heritage At Lowman Rehab And Healthcare	0.4%	51.4	A	SC	White Rock	176	LUTHERAN HOMES OF SC INC
8207	UNIVERSITY HEALTH LAKEWOOD MEDICAL CENTER	0.4%	51.4	C	MO	KANSAS CITY	188	—
8208	The Neighborhoods of White Lake	0.4%	51.4	A	MI	White Lake	39	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
8209	HEATHER HILL HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.4%	51.4	C	FL	NEW PORT RICHEY	105	HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT INC
8210	CLAY CENTER PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.4%	51.4	A	KS	CLAY CENTER	30	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
8211	Langton Shores	0.4%	51.4	A	MN	ROSEVILLE	50	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
8212	SAN JUAN NURSING HOME INC	0.4%	51.4	A	TX	SAN JUAN	114	—
8213	CONCORDIA LUTHERAN HEALTH AND HUMAN CARE	0.4%	51.4	B	PA	CABOT	142	CONCORDIA CARE NETWORK
8214	BEDFORD CO NURSING HOME	0.4%	51.4	B	VA	BEDFORD	90	—
8215	HENRY COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION FACILITY	0.4%	51.4	A	AL	ABBEVILLE	142	—
8216	SUNSHINE CHILDREN'S HOME AND REHAB CENTER	0.4%	51.4	A	NY	OSSINING	122	—
8217	PIONEERS MEMORIAL SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.4%	51.4	F	CA	BRAWLEY	99	—
8218	JUDSON PARK HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	51.4	A	WA	DES MOINES	96	HUMANGOOD NORCAL
8219	Kirkland Court Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.4%	51.1	C	TX	Amarillo	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8220	ALLIANCE HEALTH AT WEST ACRES	0.4%	51.1	B	MA	BROCKTON	138	ALLIANCE HEALTH INC
8221	LUTHER MANOR	0.4%	51.1	B	WI	MILWAUKEE	99	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
8222	OBION COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.4%	51.1	C	TN	UNION CITY	56	—
8223	Edgewater, A Wesleylife Community	0.4%	51.1	A	IA	West Des Moines	40	WESLEYLIFE
8224	Lake Marion Nursing Facility	0.4%	51.1	A	SC	Summerton	88	CLARENDON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
8225	ONALASKA CARE CENTER	0.4%	51.1	A	WI	ONALASKA	80	—
8226	Lasell House	0.4%	51.1	A	MA	NEWTON	44	—
8227	THUNDERBOLT CARE CENTER LLC	0.4%	51.1	C	GA	SAVANNAH	134	—
8228	Heritage House	0.4%	51.1	A	IA	Atlantic	61	WESLEYLIFE
8229	KANSAS SOLDIERS HOME	0.4%	51.1	A	KS	FORT DODGE	56	—
8230	LAKE REGIONAL HEALTH SYSTEMS	0.4%	51.1	A	MO	OSAGE BEACH	16	—
8231	BAYOU MANOR	0.4%	51.1	A	TX	HOUSTON	0	BRAZOS PRESBYTERIAN HOMES, INC
8232	ABERDEEN VILLAGE	0.4%	51.1	A	KS	OLATHE	60	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
8233	WATERBURY GARDENS NURSING AND REHAB	0.4%	51.1	C	CT	WATERBURY	150	—
8234	WOOD-LAWN HEIGHTS	0.4%	51.1	A	AR	BATESVILLE	140	—
8235	MORAVIAN MANOR	0.4%	51.1	A	PA	LITITZ	119	UNITAS COMMUNITIES
8236	PHOEBE ALLENTOWN HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	51.1	C	PA	ALLENTOWN	343	PHYSICIAN AND TACTICAL HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
8237	(CLOSED) VIVIANT HEALTHCARE OF MURFREESBORO	0.4%	51.1	C	TN	MURFREESBORO	100	—
8238	HEBREW HOME OF GREATER WASHINGTON	0.4%	51.1	B	MD	ROCKVILLE	558	—
8239	Monument Healthcare American Fork	0.4%	51.1	C	UT	American Fork	106	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
8240	BETHANY ST JOSEPH CARE CTR	0.4%	51.1	B	WI	LA CROSSE	100	—
8241	RIVERSIDE LIFELONG HEALTH AND REHABILITATION - M	0.4%	51.1	B	VA	MATHEWS	60	RIVERSIDE HEALTHCARE ASSOCIATION INC
8242	EDDY VILLAGE GREEN AT BEVERWYCK	0.4%	51.1	B	NY	SLINGERLANDS	24	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
8243	LUTHERAN HOME OF THE GOOD SHEPHERD	0.4%	51.1	A	ND	NEW ROCKFORD	51	—
8244	THIEF RIVER CARE CENTER	0.4%	51.1	A	MN	THIEF RIVER FALLS	70	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
8245	WESLEY VILLAGE	0.4%	51.1	C	PA	PITTSTON	160	—
8246	Presbyterian Homes-Presby	0.4%	51.1	C	PA	HOLLIDAYSBURG	67	PHI
8247	BEATITUDES CAMPUS	0.4%	51.1	B	AZ	PHOENIX	72	—
8248	RUSSELL REGIONAL HOSPITAL LTCU	0.4%	51.1	A	KS	RUSSELL	23	—
8249	THE STAYTON AT MUSEUM WAY	0.4%	51.1	B	TX	FORT WORTH	0	BUCKNER RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
8250	NEW JERSEY VETERANS MEMORIAL HOME MENLO	0.4%	51.1	B	NJ	EDISON	328	—

Showing 8,201–8,250 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.