Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,151–8,200

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8151	The Terraces of Phoenix	0.4%	51.7	B	AZ	PHOENIX	64	HUMANGOOD
8152	WELLSPRINGS THERAPY CENTER OF PHOENIX	0.4%	51.7	D	AZ	PHOENIX	46	—
8153	ROYAL OAKS MANOR-BRADBURY OAKS	0.4%	51.7	B	CA	DUARTE	48	HUMANGOOD
8154	MEADOWS, THE	0.4%	51.7	A	MA	NORTH ANDOVER	60	—
8155	ST. MARY'S NURSING CENTER INC	0.4%	51.7	A	MD	LEONARDTOWN	160	—
8156	SENIOR CARE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER - WICHI	0.4%	51.7	B	TX	WICHITA FALLS	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8157	TRINITY WOODS, INC.	0.4%	51.7	B	OK	TULSA	84	—
8158	PLYMOUTH HARBOR INCORPORATED	0.4%	51.7	A	FL	SARASOTA	56	—
8159	MANGUM SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.4%	51.7	F	OK	MANGUM	140	BRIDGES ESOP INC
8160	SPRING HARBOR AT GREEN ISLAND	0.4%	51.7	A	GA	COLUMBUS	40	—
8161	BUFFALO VALLEY LUTHERAN VILLAG	0.4%	51.7	C	PA	LEWISBURG	102	—
8162	MEMORIAL HOSPITAL LTCU (VILLAGE MANOR)	0.4%	51.7	A	KS	ABILENE	75	SALINA REGIONAL HEALTH CENTER INC
8163	THE GARDENS AT DEPUGH	0.4%	51.7	C	FL	WINTER PARK	40	—
8164	KENDAL AT LEXINGTON	0.4%	51.7	A	VA	LEXINGTON	60	—
8165	Kalkaska Memorial Health Center	0.4%	51.7	C	MI	Kalkaska	104	—
8166	ROWNTREE GARDENS	0.4%	51.7	B	CA	STANTON	58	—
8167	LUTHERAN COMMUNITY HOME	0.4%	51.4	A	IN	SEYMOUR	95	JACKSON COUNTY SCHNECK MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
8168	Hazel I Findlay Country Manor	0.4%	51.4	A	MI	Saint Johns	150	—
8169	Sheffield Care Center	0.4%	51.4	A	IA	Sheffield	45	—
8170	GREENE ACRES NURSING HOME	0.4%	51.4	A	AR	PARAGOULD	143	—
8171	GREENWOOD HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.4%	51.4	C	IN	GREENWOOD	185	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
8172	LB BROEN HOME	0.4%	51.4	A	MN	FERGUS FALLS	74	—
8173	CITIZENS MEMORIAL HEALTHCARE FACILITY	0.4%	51.4	B	MO	BOLIVAR	111	—
8174	Happy Siesta Health Care Center	0.4%	51.4	A	IA	Remsen	62	LTC ACCOUNTING SERVICES LLC
8175	LOURDES-NOREEN MCKEEN RESIDENCE FOR GERIATRIC CARE	0.4%	51.4	A	FL	WEST PALM BEACH	132	THE CARMELITE SYSTEM INC
8176	PRESBYTERIAN VILLAGE	0.4%	51.4	B	GA	AUSTELL	107	—
8177	TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	0.4%	51.4	A	OH	SAINT MARYS	15	—
8178	Christwood	0.4%	51.4	A	LA	COVINGTON	30	GREENBRIER SENIOR LIVING LLC
8179	The Rosewood Health Center	0.4%	51.4	A	NC	Raleigh	57	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
8180	Tahoe Forest Hospital D/P SNF	0.4%	51.4	A	CA	Truckee	37	TAHOE FOREST HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8181	A Holly Patterson Extended Care Facility	0.4%	51.4	D	NY	UNIONDALE	589	—
8182	Corewell Health Rehabilitation & Nursing Center -	0.4%	51.4	C	MI	Grand Rapids	80	COREWELL HEALTH
8183	ST JAMES PLACE NURSING CARE CENTER	0.4%	51.4	B	LA	BATON ROUGE	90	—
8184	Oneida County Hospital & Long Term Care Facility	0.4%	51.4	A	ID	Malad	33	—
8185	MANOR AT ELFINDALE, THE	0.4%	51.4	A	MO	SPRINGFIELD	100	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
8186	COPPER ROCK HEALTHCARE	0.4%	51.4	C	MO	ROGERSVILLE	90	—
8187	OUR LADY OF CONSOLATION NURSING AND REHAB CARE CTR	0.4%	51.4	C	NY	WEST ISLIP	450	—
8188	SPANISH PEAKS VETERANS COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	0.4%	51.4	A	CO	WALSENBURG	120	—
8189	N Y S VETERANS HOME	0.4%	51.4	B	NY	OXFORD	242	STATE OF NEW YORK COMPTROLLERS OFFICE
8190	GUEYDAN MEMORIAL GUEST HOME	0.4%	51.4	A	LA	GUEYDAN	66	—
8191	THE HSC PEDIATRIC SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.4%	51.4	A	DC	WASHINGTON	16	—
8192	Kennedy Health & Rehab	0.4%	51.4	D	TX	Lufkin	0	CHAMBERS COUNTY PUBLIC HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
8193	Heritage of Bel Air	0.4%	51.4	A	NE	Norfolk	112	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
8194	SOUTHWESTERN VETERANS CENTER	0.4%	51.4	B	PA	PITTSBURGH	236	—
8195	MID COAST SENIOR HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	51.4	B	ME	BRUNSWICK	42	MAINEHEALTH SERVICES
8196	MOSSER NURSING HOME	0.4%	51.4	B	PA	TREXLERTOWN	60	PLEXUS GROUP INC
8197	Heritage Living Center	0.4%	51.4	A	MN	PARK RAPIDS	48	KNUTE NELSON
8198	CONCORDIA VILLAGE CARE CENTER	0.4%	51.4	B	IL	SPRINGFIELD	62	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES
8199	COONEY HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	51.4	F	MT	HELENA	90	EDURO HEALTHCARE LLC
8200	MISSION POINT NSG & PHY REHAB CTR OF CRANBROOK	0.4%	51.4	F	MI	DETROIT	39	—

Showing 8,151–8,200 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.