Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,101–8,150

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8101	CARLETON-WILLARD VILLAGE RETIREMENT & NURSING CTR	0.4%	52.0	B	MA	BEDFORD	179	—
8102	GOLDEN YEARS HOMESTEAD	0.4%	52.0	B	IN	FORT WAYNE	111	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
8103	LUTHER CREST NURSING FACILITY	0.4%	52.0	A	PA	ALLENTOWN	60	DIAKON
8104	EBEN EZER LUTHERAN CARE CENTER	0.4%	52.0	B	CO	BRUSH	125	—
8105	TOTALLY KIDS REHABILITATION HOSPITAL - D/P SNF	0.4%	52.0	A	CA	LOMA LINDA	56	—
8106	Crook County Medical Services District Long Term C	0.4%	52.0	A	WY	Sundance	32	—
8107	HERITAGE INN OF SANDERSVILLE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.4%	52.0	A	GA	SANDERSVILLE	60	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
8108	ATTICA LONG TERM CARE FACILITY	0.4%	52.0	A	KS	ATTICA	48	—
8109	Jewish Home and Care Center	0.4%	52.0	A	WI	MILWAUKEE	102	—
8110	GROSSMONT HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.4%	52.0	A	CA	LA MESA	30	SHARP HEALTHCARE
8111	Brookestone Acres	0.4%	52.0	A	NE	Columbus	80	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
8112	Brewster Village	0.4%	52.0	A	WI	Appleton	204	—
8113	Samarkand Skilled Nursing Facility	0.4%	51.7	A	CA	Santa Barbara	63	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
8114	LINCOLN PARK MANOR INC	0.4%	51.7	A	KS	LINCOLN	36	LINCOLN PARK MANOR INC
8115	CANTERBURY TOWERS INC	0.4%	51.7	A	FL	TAMPA	60	—
8116	MVHS Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.4%	51.7	B	NY	UTICA	202	MOHAWK VALLEY HEALTH SYSTEM
8117	SUITES AT SOMEREN GLEN CARE CENTER, THE	0.4%	51.7	A	CO	CENTENNIAL	109	CHRISTIAN LIVING NEIGHBORHOODS
8118	LAKE RIDGE CARE CENTER OF BUFFALO, INC.	0.4%	51.7	A	MN	BUFFALO	56	CASSIA
8119	Brookestone of Papillion	0.4%	51.7	B	NE	Papillion	110	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
8120	St Luke's Helen G Nassif Transitional Care Center	0.4%	51.7	B	IA	Cedar Rapids	46	ST LUKE S HEALTHCARE
8121	The Arbor	0.4%	51.7	A	NC	Pittsboro	16	—
8122	BETHANY AT SILVER LAKE	0.4%	51.7	C	WA	EVERETT	151	BETHANY OF THE NORTHWEST
8123	MARQUETTE	0.4%	51.7	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	57	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
8124	TOWNSEND PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	51.7	A	GA	CARTERSVILLE	124	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
8125	EDDY MEMORIAL GERIATRIC CENTER	0.4%	51.7	A	NY	TROY	80	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
8126	Cerenity Care Center on Humboldt	0.4%	51.7	C	MN	SAINT PAUL	93	—
8127	SWAIM HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	51.7	C	PA	NEWVILLE	67	PHI
8128	Heritage Estates	0.4%	51.7	A	NE	Gering	102	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
8129	Maple Manor Care Center	0.4%	51.7	B	ND	LANGDON	45	—
8130	Good Shepherd Lutheran Home	0.4%	51.7	A	MN	RUSHFORD	65	—
8131	Saint Josephs Living Center, Inc.	0.4%	51.7	B	CT	WINDHAM	120	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
8132	WALBRIDGE MEMORIAL CONVALESCENT WING	0.4%	51.7	A	CO	MEEKER	30	—
8133	HEINZ TRANSITIONAL REHABILITATION UNIT	0.4%	51.7	A	PA	WILKES-BARRE	44	ALLIED SERVICES FOUNDATION
8134	OTTERBEIN LOVELAND	0.4%	51.7	A	OH	LOVELAND	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
8135	ST LUKE LUTHERAN COMMUNITY-PORTAGE LAKES	0.4%	51.7	B	OH	AKRON	56	—
8136	Moose Lake Village	0.4%	51.7	B	MN	MOOSE LAKE	60	CASSIA
8137	OTTERBEIN AT MAINEVILLE	0.4%	51.7	A	OH	MAINEVILLE	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
8138	CRESTVIEW HEALTH & REHAB CTR	0.4%	51.7	D	GA	ATLANTA	388	—
8139	Gracepointe Crossing Gables	0.4%	51.7	A	MN	CAMBRIDGE	110	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
8140	PREMIER PLACE AT THE GLENVIEW	0.4%	51.7	A	FL	NAPLES	42	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
8141	PEKIN MANOR	0.4%	51.7	C	IL	PEKIN	130	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
8142	ELAN SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB, A JEWISH SENIOR LI	0.4%	51.7	A	PA	SCRANTON	145	AFFINITY HEALTH SERVICES
8143	ST. PAULS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	51.7	B	CA	SAN DIEGO	59	ST PAUL S EPISCOPAL HOME INC
8144	MASONIC HOME	0.4%	51.7	A	CA	UNION CITY	125	MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
8145	Sanilac Medical Care Facility	0.4%	51.7	B	MI	Sandusky	104	—
8146	Cedar Crest/Mountainview Gardens	0.4%	51.7	A	NJ	POMPTON PLAINS	113	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
8147	Brookestone Village	0.4%	51.7	A	NE	Omaha	140	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
8148	Tug Valley ARH Skilled Nursing Facility	0.4%	51.7	A	KY	South Williamson	34	—
8149	BENEFIS SENIOR SERVICES - EASTVIEW	0.4%	51.7	D	MT	GREAT FALLS	64	BENEFIS HEALTH SYSTEM INC
8150	JEFFERSON HILLS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENT	0.4%	51.7	C	PA	CLAIRTON	83	—

Showing 8,101–8,150 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.