Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,051–8,100

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8051	THE REDWOODS, A COMMUNITY OF SENIORS	0.5%	52.3	A	CA	MILL VALLEY	58	—
8052	HITZ MEMORIAL HOME	0.5%	52.3	B	IL	ALHAMBRA	59	—
8053	CLEARWATER CENTER	0.5%	52.3	D	FL	CLEARWATER	109	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
8054	Prairie View Home	0.5%	52.3	A	IA	Sanborn	55	ECSI INC
8055	SCHMITT WOODLAND HILLS	0.5%	52.3	A	WI	RICHLAND CENTER	50	LEADINGCHOICE NETWORK LLC
8056	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY POLAND	0.5%	52.3	A	OH	POLAND	32	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY LUTHERAN RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
8057	SMITH VILLAGE	0.5%	52.3	A	IL	CHICAGO	93	—
8058	The Village of Ackley	0.5%	52.3	C	IA	Ackley	38	—
8059	WESTON SENIOR LIVING CENTER AT HIGHFIELD	0.5%	52.3	D	DE	WILMINGTON	19	—
8060	Fort Bayard Medical Center	0.5%	52.3	C	NM	Santa Clara	200	—
8061	KUAKINI GERIATRIC CARE, INC	0.5%	52.3	D	HI	HONOLULU	187	—
8062	UPLAND HILLS NURSING AND REHAB	0.5%	52.3	A	WI	DODGEVILLE	44	—
8063	Friendship Village	0.5%	52.3	B	MI	Kalamazoo	57	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
8064	Iowa Veterans Home	0.5%	52.3	A	IA	Marshalltown	702	—
8065	Community Memorial Health Center	0.5%	52.3	B	IA	Hartley	62	—
8066	Continuous Care Center Wheeling Hospital	0.5%	52.3	A	WV	WHEELING	144	WEST VIRGINIA UNITED HEALTH SYSTEM INC
8067	WOOD VILLAGE	0.5%	52.3	A	TN	SWEETWATER	89	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
8068	Brookestone View	0.5%	52.3	B	NE	Broken Bow	60	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
8069	HIGHMORE HEALTH	0.4%	52.0	A	SD	HIGHMORE	39	—
8070	ARTESIA CHRISTIAN HOME INC.	0.4%	52.0	A	CA	ARTESIA	66	—
8071	Friendship Village Of Bloomington	0.4%	52.0	C	MN	BLOOMINGTON	66	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
8072	Meadow Woods Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.4%	52.0	C	MI	Bloomingdale	67	—
8073	TRANSITIONAL CARE SERVICES AT MERCY MEDICAL CENTER	0.4%	52.0	B	MD	BALTIMORE	35	MERCY HEALTH SERVICES INC
8074	ADVANCED REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE OF BOWIE	0.4%	52.0	B	TX	BOWIE	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8075	TRINITY HOMES	0.4%	52.0	B	ND	MINOT	141	TRINITY HEALTH
8076	Little Flower Manor	0.4%	52.0	A	PA	DARBY	127	HOLY REDEEMER HEALTH SYSTEM
8077	MONTESANO HEALTH - REHAB CENTER	0.4%	52.0	C	WA	MONTESANO	94	—
8078	MOORINGS OF ARLINGTON HEIGHTS	0.4%	52.0	A	IL	ARLINGTON HTS	92	PRESBYTERIAN HOMES
8079	Flagstone	0.4%	52.0	B	MN	EDEN PRAIRIE	72	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
8080	Meadowbrook Nursing Center	0.4%	52.0	C	OK	Chouteau	65	BGM ESTATE LLC
8081	HERITAGE GREEN REHAB & SKILLED NURSING	0.4%	52.0	C	NY	GREENHURST	134	HERITAGE MINISTRIES CHARITABLE CARE NETWORK INC
8082	JAMESTOWNE REHABILITATION	0.4%	52.0	B	OH	HAMILTON	42	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
8083	WHITE ACRES WELLNESS & REHABILITATION	0.4%	52.0	F	TX	EL PASO	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8084	PARK REST HARDIN COUNTY HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	52.0	A	TN	SAVANNAH	62	—
8085	Essentia Health Oak Crossing	0.4%	52.0	B	MN	DETROIT LAKES	94	ESSENTIA HEALTH
8086	Munson Healthcare Otsego Memorial Hospital LTCU	0.4%	52.0	A	MI	Gaylord	34	MUNSON HEALTHCARE
8087	Callaway Good Life Center, Inc	0.4%	52.0	B	NE	CALLAWAY	38	—
8088	HERITAGE HOUSE AT KELLER REHAB & NURSING	0.4%	52.0	B	TX	KELLER	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
8089	THE ARBOUR AT WESTMINSTER MANOR	0.4%	52.0	A	TX	AUSTIN	90	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
8090	WESTERN NEW YORK STATE VETERANS HOME	0.4%	52.0	A	NY	BATAVIA	126	STATE OF NEW YORK COMPTROLLERS OFFICE
8091	Monument Healthcare Brigham City	0.4%	52.0	D	UT	Brigham City	84	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
8092	La Vida Llena	0.4%	52.0	B	NM	Albuquerque	50	HAVERLAND CARTER LIFESTYLE GROUP OPERATING LLC
8093	BETHEL LUTHERAN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	52.0	A	ND	WILLISTON	95	—
8094	HALE MAKUA - WAILUKU	0.4%	52.0	B	HI	WAILUKU	90	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
8095	SONTERRA HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	52.0	C	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	DEWITT MEDICAL DISTRICT
8096	HIRAM W DAVIS MEDICAL CTR	0.4%	52.0	A	VA	PETERSBURG	90	—
8097	ARARAT CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.4%	52.0	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	42	ARARAT HOME OF LOS ANGELES INC
8098	ROMAN EAGLE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	52.0	B	VA	DANVILLE	312	—
8099	WILLOWBROOKE CTSKDCARECTR ATNORMANDY FARMS ESTATES	0.4%	52.0	A	PA	BLUE BELL	10	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
8100	WESTOVER RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.4%	52.0	B	OH	HAMILTON	53	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC

Showing 8,051–8,100 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.