Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,001–8,050

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8001	Heartwood Lodge Trinity Health	0.5%	52.6	B	MI	Spring Lake	84	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
8002	SPIRITRUST LUTHERAN THE VILLAGE AT GETTYSBURG	0.5%	52.6	B	PA	GETTYSBURG	60	—
8003	WOODLAND BEHAVIORAL AND NURSING CENTER	0.5%	52.6	D	NJ	ANDOVER	543	—
8004	WILLOWBROOKE COURT AT LANIER VILLAGE ESTATES	0.5%	52.6	A	GA	GAINESVILLE	48	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
8005	WESTMINSTER AT LAKE RIDGE	0.5%	52.6	B	VA	LAKE RIDGE	60	WESTMINSTER INGLESIDE KING FARM RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES INC
8006	Madrid Home for the Aged	0.5%	52.6	D	IA	Madrid	64	WESTERN HOME SERVICES INC
8007	SMITH HEALTH CARE LTD	0.5%	52.6	C	PA	MOUNTAIN TOP	37	—
8008	HENDERSON COUNTY RET CENTER	0.5%	52.6	A	IL	STRONGHURST	58	—
8009	REMARKABLE HEALTHCARE OF FORT WORTH	0.5%	52.6	C	TX	FORT WORTH	120	—
8010	PINE VIEW MANOR INC	0.5%	52.6	B	MO	STANBERRY	70	—
8011	LAFAYETTE-REDEEMER, THE	0.5%	52.6	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	120	—
8012	MITCHELL COUNTY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	52.6	B	TX	COLORADO CITY	0	—
8013	THE TERRACE AT DENISON	0.5%	52.3	D	TX	DENISON	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8014	Ellen Sagar Nursing Center	0.5%	52.3	A	SC	Union	113	SPARTANBURG REGIONAL HEALTH SERVICES DISTRICT INC
8015	CLINTON COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.5%	52.3	B	NY	PLATTSBURGH	80	—
8016	Franklin General Hospital	0.5%	52.3	A	IA	Hampton	52	—
8017	VAN RENSSELAER MANOR	0.5%	52.3	C	NY	TROY	362	—
8018	Thornton Manor Nursing and Care Center	0.5%	52.3	A	IA	Lansing	40	—
8019	POLO REHABILITATION & HCC	0.5%	52.3	A	IL	POLO	81	XCH LLC
8020	Morningside Health Services	0.5%	52.3	C	WI	Sheboygan	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
8021	CASA PROMESA	0.5%	52.3	D	NY	BRONX	108	—
8022	WHISPERING CREEK	0.5%	52.3	A	MN	JANESVILLE	35	—
8023	Seven Acres Jewish Senior Care Services	0.5%	52.3	A	TX	Houston	144	—
8024	ST CATHERINE OF SIENA	0.5%	52.3	C	NJ	CALDWELL	30	—
8025	Beaver City Manor	0.5%	52.3	A	NE	Beaver City	30	—
8026	PROVIDENCE MOUNT ST VINCENT	0.5%	52.3	D	WA	SEATTLE	215	PROVIDENCE HEALTH & SERVICES WASHINGTON
8027	TARPON BAYOU CENTER	0.5%	52.3	C	FL	TARPON SPRINGS	114	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
8028	Cityview Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.5%	52.3	B	TX	Fort Worth	0	DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8029	FAIR ACRES GERIATRIC CENTER	0.5%	52.3	B	PA	LIMA	778	—
8030	ASHTABULA COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.5%	52.3	A	OH	KINGSVILLE	133	—
8031	MONTICELLO CARE CENTER	0.5%	52.3	C	FL	MONTICELLO	60	—
8032	MILLER COUNTY CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	52.3	A	MO	TUSCUMBIA	86	—
8033	CHAPIN HOME FOR THE AGING	0.5%	52.3	A	NY	JAMAICA	220	—
8034	Villa St Vincent	0.5%	52.3	B	MN	CROOKSTON	100	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
8035	Elwood Care Center	0.5%	52.3	A	NE	Elwood	43	—
8036	CLARK COUNTY REHABILITATION & LIVING CENTER	0.5%	52.3	A	WI	OWEN	172	—
8037	Monroe Community Hospital	0.5%	52.3	D	NY	Rochester	566	—
8038	WILLIMANSETT CENTER WEST	0.5%	52.3	B	MA	CHICOPEE	103	—
8039	Florence Home	0.5%	52.3	C	NE	OMAHA	126	—
8040	LEVINDALE HEBREW GER CTR & HSP	0.5%	52.3	C	MD	BALTIMORE	210	LIFEBRIDGE HEALTH INC
8041	GREATER BALTIMORE MEDICAL CENTER SUB ACUTE UNIT	0.5%	52.3	—	MD	BALTIMORE	27	—
8042	BUTTERFIELD TRAIL VILLAGE	0.5%	52.3	A	AR	FAYETTEVILLE	87	—
8043	BETHANY HOME SOCIETY SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY	0.5%	52.3	A	CA	RIPON	92	—
8044	The Cedars of Chapel Hill	0.5%	52.3	A	NC	Chapel Hill	12	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
8045	COVENANT LIVING OF GOLDEN VALLEY CARE & REHAB CTR	0.5%	52.3	A	MN	GOLDEN VALLEY	88	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
8046	St John specialty Care Center	0.5%	52.3	D	PA	MARS	150	—
8047	MORRISTOWN MANOR	0.5%	52.3	B	IN	MORRISTOWN	119	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
8048	OAKVIEW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	52.3	A	GA	SUMMERVILLE	151	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
8049	Bethany Home of Rhode Island	0.5%	52.3	A	RI	Providence	33	—
8050	AYERS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	52.3	B	FL	TRENTON	120	HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT INC

Showing 8,001–8,050 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.