Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,951–8,000

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7951	LEE COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	52.9	B	GA	LEESBURG	60	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7952	The Sharon at Southpark	0.5%	52.9	A	NC	Charlotte	19	—
7953	WESTMINSTER COMMUNITIES OF BRADENTON WESTMINSTER	0.5%	52.9	C	FL	BRADENTON	59	PRESBYTERIAN RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES, INC.
7954	ASCENSION LIVING VIA CHRISTI VILLAGE MCLEAN	0.5%	52.9	A	KS	WICHITA	36	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
7955	ST ELIZABETH NURSING HOME	0.5%	52.9	D	WI	JANESVILLE	43	ILLUMINUS INC
7956	The Transitional Care Center of Owensboro	0.5%	52.9	A	KY	Owensboro	30	—
7957	ROUSE WARREN COUNTY HOME	0.5%	52.9	C	PA	YOUNGSVILLE	176	—
7958	JEANNE JUGAN RESIDENCE	0.5%	52.6	A	DE	NEWARK	40	—
7959	GRANCELL VILLAGE OF THE JEWISH HOMES FOR THE AGING	0.5%	52.6	C	CA	RESEDA	105	LOS ANGELES JEWISH HOME FOR THE AGING
7960	REDBUD VILLAGE	0.5%	52.6	A	KS	PLAINVILLE	34	—
7961	CORDELE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	52.6	B	GA	CORDELE	100	—
7962	ST ALEXIUS TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	0.5%	52.6	—	ND	BISMARCK	19	—
7963	THE SEQUOIAS	0.5%	52.6	A	CA	PORTOLA VALLEY	43	SEQUOIA LIVING INC
7964	CONTINUING CARE AT EAGLES TRACE	0.5%	52.6	B	TX	HOUSTON	0	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
7965	RIVIERE DE SOLEIL COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.5%	52.6	B	LA	MANSURA	130	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
7966	EDENBROOK PINE HAVEN	0.5%	52.6	B	MN	PINE ISLAND	70	—
7967	AUBURN HOME IN WACONIA	0.5%	52.6	C	MN	WACONIA	37	—
7968	GOLDEN AGE MANOR	0.5%	52.6	B	WI	AMERY	85	—
7969	Hudson Memorial Nursing Home	0.5%	52.6	A	AR	EL DORADO	108	—
7970	COPPER TRACE HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.5%	52.6	C	IN	WESTFIELD	104	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
7971	Marigold Rehabilitation and Health Care Center	0.5%	52.6	C	IL	GALESBURG	172	XCH LLC
7972	THE SHEPHERD'S CENTER	0.5%	52.6	D	KS	CIMARRON	28	—
7973	ST MARY'S D'YOUVILLE PAVILION	0.5%	52.6	A	ME	LEWISTON	210	COVENANT HEALTH
7974	CONTINUING CARE AT WIND CREST	0.5%	52.6	A	CO	HIGHLANDS RANCH	44	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
7975	DEERFIELD CARE CENTER, LLC	0.5%	52.6	A	WI	NEW RICHMOND	50	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
7976	FOLKESTONE	0.5%	52.6	A	MN	WAYZATA	30	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
7977	RIDGECREST REGIONAL TRANSITIONAL CARE AND REHABILI	0.5%	52.6	B	CA	RIDGECREST	124	—
7978	ST DOMINIC VILLA	0.5%	52.6	C	WI	HAZEL GREEN	62	ILLUMINUS INC
7979	GUNDERSEN ST ELIZABETH'S CARE CENTER	0.5%	52.6	A	MN	WABASHA	100	BELLIN GUNDERSEN HEALTH SYSTEM INC
7980	LUTHER MANOR RETIREMENT & NURSING CENTER	0.5%	52.6	C	MO	HANNIBAL	64	—
7981	NORTHWEST MANOR HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	52.6	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	126	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7982	LAWRENCE PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.5%	52.6	A	KS	LAWRENCE	40	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
7983	Fox Run Village	0.5%	52.6	B	MI	Novi	44	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
7984	Halcyon House	0.5%	52.6	A	IA	Washington	54	WESLEYLIFE
7985	EASTCASTLE PL BRADFORD TER CONV CTR	0.5%	52.6	C	WI	MILWAUKEE	40	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7986	SOUTHVIEW MANOR	0.5%	52.6	C	IL	CHICAGO	200	—
7987	CALIFORNIA PACIFIC MEDICAL CTR- DAVIES CAMPUS HOSP	0.5%	52.6	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	38	SUTTER HEALTH
7988	Pinecrest Medical Care Facility	0.5%	52.6	B	MI	Powers	120	—
7989	Prairie Ridge Care Center	0.5%	52.6	A	IA	Orange City	95	ORANGE CITY MUNICIPAL HOSPITAL
7990	MEADOWS PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	52.6	A	GA	VIDALIA	75	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7991	New London Specialty Care	0.5%	52.6	A	IA	New London	43	CARE INITIATIVES
7992	ROOSEVELT CARE CENTER	0.5%	52.6	D	NJ	EDISON	180	MIDDLESEX COUNTY IMPROVEMENT AUTHORITY
7993	ASHBY PONDS INC	0.5%	52.6	A	VA	ASHBURN	44	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
7994	PINEKNOLL REHABILITATION CENTRE	0.5%	52.6	A	IN	WINCHESTER	58	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7995	Northfield Retirement Communities Care Center	0.5%	52.6	C	NE	Scottsbluff	66	—
7996	GOLDEN GOOD SHEPHERD HOME	0.5%	52.6	B	IL	GOLDEN	46	—
7997	BELKNAP COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.5%	52.6	B	NH	LACONIA	94	—
7998	Lakeside Lutheran Home	0.5%	52.6	A	IA	Emmetsburg	55	—
7999	SUNNY VIEW MANOR	0.5%	52.6	A	CA	CUPERTINO	48	FRONT PORCH COMMUNITIES AND SERVICES
8000	HANNAH B G SHAW HOME	0.5%	52.6	A	MA	MIDDLEBORO	107	—

Showing 7,951–8,000 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.