Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,901–7,950

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7901	VIA CHRISTI VILLAGE MANHATTAN, INC	0.5%	53.2	B	KS	MANHATTAN	93	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
7902	Highland Pines Rehabilitation Center	0.5%	53.2	F	FL	CLEARWATER	115	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
7903	Northgate Unit Of Lakeview Christian Home	0.5%	53.2	C	NM	Carlsbad	112	—
7904	VILLA MARIA NURSING CENTER	0.5%	53.2	C	FL	NORTH MIAMI	212	ARCHDIOCESE OF MIAMI INC
7905	THE MISSION AT BLUE SKIES OF TEXAS EAST	0.5%	53.2	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	AIR FORCE VILLAGE INC
7906	Catholic Memorial Home	0.5%	53.2	B	MA	FALL RIVER	300	—
7907	QUARRYVILLE PRESBYTERIAN RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.5%	53.2	B	PA	QUARRYVILLE	130	—
7908	Hillcrest Nursing Home	0.5%	53.2	B	NE	McCook	100	—
7909	COVENANT LIVING - WINDSOR PARK	0.5%	53.2	A	IL	CAROL STREAM	80	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
7910	LUTHERAN REHABILITATION AND SKILLED CARE CENTER	0.5%	53.2	A	MA	WORCESTER	150	ASCENTRIA CARE ALLIANCE INC
7911	WILKINSON RESIDENTIAL HEALTH CARE FACILITY	0.5%	53.2	A	NY	AMSTERDAM	160	—
7912	SUMMIT HEALTH AND LIVING	0.5%	53.2	A	IN	SUMMITVILLE	34	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
7913	UNITED HEBREW GERIATRIC CENTER	0.5%	53.2	B	NY	NEW ROCHELLE	294	—
7914	Brenham Healthcare Center	0.5%	52.9	F	TX	Brenham	62	—
7915	WALSH HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.5%	52.9	A	CO	WALSH	30	—
7916	HUNT NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.5%	52.9	B	MA	DANVERS	120	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
7917	BROOKING PARK	0.5%	52.9	F	MO	CHESTERFIELD	49	ST ANDREWS RESOURCES FOR SENIORS SYSTEM
7918	The Stewart Health Center	0.5%	52.9	A	NC	Charlotte	65	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7919	KINGSWOOD SENIOR LIVING	0.5%	52.9	D	MO	KANSAS CITY	86	—
7920	ST BENEDICTS HEALTH CENTER	0.5%	52.9	A	ND	DICKINSON	120	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
7921	NORTHSIDE GWINNETT EXTENDED CARE CENTER	0.5%	52.9	—	GA	LAWRENCEVILLE	89	—
7922	Corewell Health Rehabilitation & Nursing Center -	0.5%	52.9	C	MI	Stevensville	111	COREWELL HEALTH
7923	MORNING BREEZE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY AND HEALTHCARE	0.5%	52.9	B	IN	GREENSBURG	64	DECATUR COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7924	Christian Homes Health Care Center	0.5%	52.9	C	NE	Holdrege	86	—
7925	Heartland Care Center	0.5%	52.9	A	IA	Marcus	38	—
7926	THE PEAKS HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.5%	52.9	B	AZ	FLAGSTAFF	58	—
7927	NEIGHBORS - EAST NEIGHBORHOOD (THE)	0.5%	52.9	A	WI	MENOMONIE	46	COUNTY OF DUNN
7928	ANSLEY PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	52.9	B	GA	NEWNAN	66	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7929	INDIAN BEACH NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.5%	52.9	B	FL	SARASOTA	101	VRD 10 HLDCO LLC
7930	WINTERSONG VILLAGE	0.5%	52.9	C	IN	KNOX	48	—
7931	CHELSEY PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	52.9	B	GA	DAHLONEGA	60	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7932	HEALTH CENTER AT FRANKLIN PARK	0.5%	52.9	B	CO	DENVER	86	—
7933	Emerald Nursing & Rehab Omaha	0.5%	52.9	D	NE	Omaha	155	WELLSKY CORPORATION
7934	Highland Park Care Center	0.5%	52.9	A	NE	Alliance	60	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
7935	DEL RIO NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	52.9	C	TX	DEL RIO	0	VAL VERDE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7936	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF BREMEN	0.5%	52.9	D	IN	BREMEN	73	ASBR HOLDINGS LLC
7937	Mayo Clinic Health System - Lake City	0.5%	52.9	C	MN	LAKE CITY	90	—
7938	SMP HEALTH - MARYHILL	0.5%	52.9	A	ND	ENDERLIN	42	SISTERS OF MARY OF THE PRESENTATION LONG TERM CARE
7939	OTTERBEIN SUNSET VILLAGE	0.5%	52.9	A	OH	SYLVANIA	50	OTTERBEIN HOME
7940	JNH-MADISON INN	0.5%	52.9	A	MS	WHITFIELD	63	—
7941	KNUTE NELSON CARE CENTER	0.5%	52.9	A	MN	ALEXANDRIA	83	VIVIE
7942	WEXNER HERITAGE HOUSE	0.5%	52.9	B	OH	COLUMBUS	99	—
7943	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - POSTVILLE	0.5%	52.9	F	IA	POSTVILLE	55	—
7944	Titonka Care Center	0.5%	52.9	A	IA	Titonka	26	CONTINUUM HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
7945	TREASURE ISLE CARE CENTER	0.5%	52.9	C	FL	NORTH BAY VILLAGE	176	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
7946	The Forest At Duke Inc	0.5%	52.9	A	NC	Durham	4	—
7947	Dermott City Nursing Home	0.5%	52.9	B	AR	Dermott	70	—
7948	ALLIANCE HEALTH AT ROSEWOOD	0.5%	52.9	B	MA	PEABODY	135	ALLIANCE HEALTH INC
7949	Woodland Manor Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.5%	52.9	D	TX	Conroe	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
7950	COPPER HEALTH ORO VALLEY	0.5%	52.9	C	AZ	ORO VALLEY	36	—

Showing 7,901–7,950 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.