Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,851–7,900

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7851	ORCHARD MANOR	0.5%	53.4	A	WI	LANCASTER	74	COUNTY OF GRANT
7852	ASBURY SOLOMONS	0.5%	53.4	A	MD	SOLOMONS	48	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
7853	HOMEVIEW CENTER OF FRANKLIN	0.5%	53.4	A	IN	FRANKLIN	119	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
7854	BAYVIEW MANOR	0.5%	53.4	C	WA	SEATTLE	50	—
7855	LIFESTREAM AT COOK HEALTH CARE	0.5%	53.4	F	AZ	YOUNGTOWN	128	—
7856	WESTMINSTER PLACE	0.5%	53.4	A	IL	EVANSTON	105	PRESBYTERIAN HOMES
7857	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT SOUTH HAVEN	0.5%	53.4	C	MD	ANNAPOLIS	154	—
7858	LOS ARCOS DEL NORTE CARE CENTER	0.5%	53.4	C	TX	EL PASO	0	—
7859	JAMESTOWN PLACE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.5%	53.4	A	OH	JAMESTOWN	50	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
7860	GREEN HILLS CENTER	0.5%	53.4	B	OH	WEST LIBERTY	74	OTTERBEIN HOME
7861	Perry Lutheran Home	0.5%	53.4	C	IA	Perry	70	—
7862	YATES OPERATOR, LLC	0.5%	53.4	B	KS	YATES CENTER	45	—
7863	Querencia at Barton Creek	0.5%	53.4	B	TX	Austin	0	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
7864	OTTERBEIN NORTH SHORE	0.5%	53.4	B	OH	LAKESIDE	20	OTTERBEIN HOME
7865	CAMILIA ROSE CARE CENTER LLC	0.5%	53.4	F	MN	COON RAPIDS	40	—
7866	RIVEROAKS HEALTH CAMPUS	0.5%	53.4	C	IN	PRINCETON	68	TRILOGY OPCO LLC
7867	Munson Healthcare Crawford Continuing Care Center	0.5%	53.4	B	MI	Grayling	39	MUNSON HEALTHCARE
7868	PIEDMONT GARDENS HEALTH FACILITY	0.5%	53.4	A	CA	OAKLAND	94	HUMANGOOD
7869	Trinitas Hospital	0.5%	53.4	A	NJ	ELIZABETH	124	RWJ BARNABAS HEALTH INC
7870	FORESTVIEW	0.5%	53.4	A	PA	ERIE	80	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
7871	RIVERSIDE LIFELONG HEALTH & REHABILITATION PATRI	0.5%	53.4	A	VA	WILLIAMSBURG	60	RIVERSIDE HEALTHCARE ASSOCIATION INC
7872	SHADY LANE GLOUCESTER CO HOME	0.5%	53.4	B	NJ	CLARKSBORO	60	—
7873	AUTUMN LANE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	53.4	A	GA	GRAY	85	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7874	BETHEL POINTE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.5%	53.4	B	IN	MUNCIE	114	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
7875	PRAIRIE LAKES HEALTH CAMPUS	0.5%	53.4	B	IN	NOBLESVILLE	61	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
7876	Christian Health Center Corbin	0.5%	53.4	C	KY	Corbin	104	CHRISTIAN CARE COMMUNITIES INC
7877	Focused Care at Linden	0.5%	53.2	F	TX	Linden	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
7878	Sauer Health Care	0.5%	53.2	A	MN	WINONA	61	—
7879	HEBRON OAKS	0.5%	53.2	B	WI	MADISON	70	OAKWOOD LUTHERAN SENIOR MINISTRIES INC
7880	Life Care Center of Boise	0.5%	53.2	A	ID	Boise	153	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
7881	BENEFIS SENIOR SERVICES - WESTVIEW	0.5%	53.2	F	MT	GREAT FALLS	34	BENEFIS HEALTH SYSTEM INC
7882	LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR SACRED HEART RESIDENCE	0.5%	53.2	A	AL	MOBILE	75	—
7883	Marwood Manor Nursing Home	0.5%	53.2	A	MI	Port Huron	240	MCLAREN HEALTH CARE CORPORATION
7884	JNH-JAQUITH INN	0.5%	53.2	A	MS	WHITFIELD	45	—
7885	PINES VILLAGE INC	0.5%	53.2	B	NJ	WHITING	66	—
7886	CUMBERLAND TRACE HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.5%	53.2	D	IN	PLAINFIELD	104	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
7887	PINECREST RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.5%	53.2	A	TX	LUFKIN	0	METHODIST RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
7888	SULLIVAN COUNTY HEALTH CARE	0.5%	53.2	A	NH	UNITY	156	—
7889	SWEET MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	0.5%	53.2	C	MT	CHINOOK	42	—
7890	DANVILLE REGIONAL REHABILITATION	0.5%	53.2	A	IN	DANVILLE	110	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7891	CAMPION HEALTH & WELLNESS, INC	0.5%	53.2	A	MA	WESTON	70	—
7892	MILACA ELIM MEADOWS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	53.2	A	MN	MILACA	70	CASSIA
7893	SHELBYVILLE MANOR	0.5%	53.2	C	IL	SHELBYVILLE	109	—
7894	HALE MAKUA - KAHULUI	0.5%	53.2	C	HI	KAHULUI	252	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
7895	LAKESIDE AT WILLOW VALLEY	0.5%	53.2	A	PA	WILLOW STREET	80	WILLOW VALLEY COMMUNITIES
7896	BAY VILLAGE OF SARASOTA	0.5%	53.2	A	FL	SARASOTA	95	—
7897	Ecumen Lakeshore	0.5%	53.2	A	MN	DULUTH	60	ECUMEN
7898	Brookestone Gardens	0.5%	53.2	C	NE	Kearney	54	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
7899	GREENFIELDS OF GENEVA	0.5%	53.2	C	IL	GENEVA	43	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
7900	HOMEWOOD LIVING FREDERICK	0.5%	53.2	A	MD	FREDERICK	120	—

Showing 7,851–7,900 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.