Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,801–7,850

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7801	CLARK REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER	0.5%	53.8	—	KY	WINCHESTER	21	—
7802	REGINALD P WHITE NURSING FACILITY	0.5%	53.8	B	MS	MERIDIAN	70	—
7803	St Antoine Residence	0.5%	53.8	C	RI	North Smithfield	260	—
7804	BELL TRACE HEALTH AND LIVING CENTER	0.5%	53.8	B	IN	BLOOMINGTON	90	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
7805	ABBEY DELRAY SOUTH	0.5%	53.8	C	FL	DELRAY BEACH	90	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
7806	Davis Health Care Center	0.5%	53.8	B	NC	Wilmington	115	—
7807	HERMITAGE HEALTH CENTER	0.5%	53.8	B	TN	ELIZABETHTON	70	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
7808	FAIRFIELD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.5%	53.6	A	IL	FAIRFIELD	30	DEACONESS HEALTH SYSTEM INC
7809	KAWEAH HEALTH SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.5%	53.6	B	CA	VISALIA	70	KAWEAH DELTA HEALTH CARE DISTRICT
7810	PHILLIPS COUNTY RETIREMENT CENTER	0.5%	53.6	A	KS	PHILLIPSBURG	40	—
7811	BENEDICTINE LIVING CENTER OF GARRISON	0.5%	53.6	A	ND	GARRISON	52	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
7812	QUINTON MEM HC & REHAB CENTER	0.5%	53.6	B	GA	DALTON	120	HLTC INC
7813	St Andre Health Care Facility	0.5%	53.6	A	ME	BIDDEFORD	96	COVENANT HEALTH
7814	EATONTON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	53.6	C	GA	EATONTON	104	CLINICAL SERVICES INC
7815	CONCORDIA AT SUMNER	0.5%	53.6	A	OH	COPLEY	48	CONCORDIA CARE NETWORK
7816	ROLLA PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.5%	53.6	A	MO	ROLLA	30	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
7817	St Francis Home	0.5%	53.6	B	WI	Fond du Lac	90	SSM HEALTH CARE OF WISCONSIN INC
7818	SAINT ANN REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.5%	53.6	A	NH	DOVER	54	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
7819	Manistee County Medical Care Facility	0.5%	53.6	B	MI	Manistee	78	—
7820	PruittHealth - Lithonia, LLC	0.5%	53.6	B	GA	LITHONIA	150	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7821	Concordia at Arbutus Park	0.5%	53.6	D	PA	JOHNSTOWN	141	—
7822	CREST VIEW LUTHERAN HOME	0.5%	53.6	B	MN	COLUMBIA HEIGHTS	106	—
7823	MARINUKA MANOR	0.5%	53.6	A	WI	GALESVILLE	50	—
7824	PINECREST MANOR	0.5%	53.6	B	PA	ST MARYS	138	PENN HIGHLANDS HEALTHCARE INC
7825	Renvilla Health Center	0.5%	53.6	B	MN	RENVILLE	38	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
7826	Majestic Care of Manchin	0.5%	53.6	D	WV	FAIRMONT	41	—
7827	Franciscan Health Center	0.5%	53.6	A	MN	DULUTH	47	—
7828	Navasota Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.5%	53.6	C	TX	Navasota	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
7829	Brown CTY Comm Treatment CTR-Bayshore Village	0.5%	53.6	B	WI	Green Bay	63	—
7830	MANOR COURT OF PERU	0.5%	53.6	C	IL	PERU	130	RESIDENTIAL ALTERNATIVES OF ILLINOIS INC
7831	ST JOSEPHS PLACE	0.5%	53.6	A	NY	PORT JERVIS	46	BON SECOURS MERCY HEALTH INC
7832	NORTH CENTRAL HEALTH CARE	0.5%	53.6	B	WI	WAUSAU	159	—
7833	Washington Soldiers Home	0.5%	53.6	C	WA	ORTING	97	WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF VETE
7834	Newaygo Co Medical Care Facility	0.5%	53.6	B	MI	Fremont	116	—
7835	THE JANE AT TARBORO	0.5%	53.6	C	NC	TARBORO	40	—
7836	HILLCREST COMMONS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	53.6	C	MA	PITTSFIELD	265	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
7837	SPRINGS AT EAST HILL, THE	0.5%	53.6	C	CT	SOUTHBURY	35	—
7838	Alpine Meadow Rehabilitation and Nursing	0.5%	53.6	A	UT	West Valley City	42	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
7839	Idaho State Veterans Home - Pocatello	0.5%	53.6	A	ID	Pocatello	66	DIVISION OF VETERANS SERVICES
7840	LEXINGTON MEDICAL LODGE	0.5%	53.6	C	TX	FARMERSVILLE	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7841	Cathedral Village	0.5%	53.6	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	82	PHI
7842	South Haven Living Center	0.5%	53.4	A	NE	Wahoo	85	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
7843	CLEVELAND COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.5%	53.4	C	MS	CLEVELAND	120	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
7844	CORN HERITAGE VILLAGE AND REHAB OF WEATHERFORD	0.5%	53.4	B	OK	WEATHERFORD	81	TWOMAGNETS LLC
7845	GRIGGS COUNTY CARE CENTER	0.5%	53.4	A	ND	COOPERSTOWN	40	—
7846	BROWN MEMORIAL HOME INC	0.5%	53.4	A	OH	CIRCLEVILLE	44	—
7847	CLEARVIEW BRAIN INJURY CENTER	0.5%	53.4	A	WI	JUNEAU	30	—
7848	Aftenro Home	0.5%	53.4	C	MN	DULUTH	54	—
7849	Santa Fe Care Center	0.5%	53.4	C	NM	Santa Fe	120	COMPASSION CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
7850	ALWYN C CASHE STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.5%	53.4	C	FL	ORLANDO	112	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS

Showing 7,801–7,850 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.