Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,751–7,800

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7751	Elm Crest Retirement Community	0.5%	54.0	C	IA	Harlan	50	AMERICAN BAPTIST HOMES OF THE MIDWEST
7752	Lutheran Living Senior Campus	0.5%	54.0	C	IA	Muscatine	155	—
7753	Zumbrota Care Center	0.5%	54.0	C	MN	ZUMBROTA	40	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
7754	Bangor Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.5%	54.0	B	ME	BANGOR	60	—
7755	Valley Vista Care Center of Sandpoint	0.5%	54.0	B	ID	Sandpoint	73	VALLEY VISTA CARE CORPORATION
7756	Stacyville Community Nursing Home	0.5%	54.0	B	IA	Stacyville	34	—
7757	ST CLARA'S REHAB & SENIOR CARE	0.5%	54.0	C	IL	LINCOLN	99	HERITAGE OPERATIONS GROUP LLC
7758	COURTLAND REHAB AND LIVING CENTER	0.5%	54.0	C	ME	ELLSWORTH	54	—
7759	GRIMES CENTER	0.5%	54.0	B	CT	NEW HAVEN	114	YALE NEW HAVEN HEALTH SERVICES CORPORATION
7760	ENTERPRISE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	54.0	B	AL	ENTERPRISE	257	—
7761	JOURDAIN PERPICH EXT CARE FAC	0.5%	54.0	A	MN	REDLAKE	47	—
7762	CUMBERLAND CROSSINGS RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.5%	54.0	B	PA	CARLISLE	58	DIAKON
7763	Browns Valley Health Center	0.5%	54.0	A	MN	BROWNS VALLEY	31	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
7764	TRINITY TERRACE	0.5%	54.0	A	TX	FORT WORTH	0	PACIFIC RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
7765	ST DOMINIC VILLAGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENT	0.5%	54.0	B	TX	Houston	158	—
7766	APPLEWOOD VILLAGE, INC	0.5%	54.0	A	NJ	FREEHOLD	60	ATLANTIC HEALTH SYSTEM
7767	OTTERBEIN MIDDLETOWN	0.5%	53.8	A	OH	FRANKLIN	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
7768	ST CLARE LIVING COMMUNITY OF MORA	0.5%	53.8	C	MN	MORA	65	—
7769	CARILLON INC	0.5%	53.8	A	TX	LUBBOCK	100	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7770	RAWLINS HOUSE HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.5%	53.8	C	IN	PENDLETON	110	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
7771	Mayflower Home	0.5%	53.8	A	IA	Grinnell	40	—
7772	WILKES REGIONAL MEDICAL CTR SN	0.5%	53.8	B	NC	NORTH WILKESBORO	10	ADVOCATE HEALTH INC
7773	EVENGLOW LODGE	0.5%	53.8	B	IL	PONTIAC	48	—
7774	Appleton Area Health	0.5%	53.8	A	MN	APPLETON	47	—
7775	Aitkin Health Services	0.5%	53.8	B	MN	AITKIN	42	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
7776	LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR	0.5%	53.8	B	IL	CHICAGO	76	—
7777	COOS COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.5%	53.8	C	NH	BERLIN	100	—
7778	MEMORIAL NURSING CENTER	0.5%	53.8	—	OK	FREDERICK	30	—
7779	VALLEY VIEW VILLA	0.5%	53.8	D	CO	FORT MORGAN	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
7780	WINTHROP HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	53.8	B	GA	ROME	80	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7781	ZEBULON PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	53.8	A	GA	MACON	66	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7782	YUKIO OKUTSU STATE VETERANS HOME	0.5%	53.8	B	HI	HILO	95	HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
7783	MercyOne Dyersville Senior Care	0.5%	53.8	A	IA	Dyersville	40	—
7784	SEMINARY MANOR	0.5%	53.8	B	IL	GALESBURG	121	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
7785	CURA OF MELROSE	0.5%	53.8	B	MN	MELROSE	75	—
7786	OXFORD HEALTH CENTER	0.5%	53.8	B	PA	OXFORD	90	PHI
7787	Avir at Kaufman	0.5%	53.8	B	TX	KAUFMAN	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7788	Cerenity Care Center White Bear Lake	0.5%	53.8	A	MN	WHITE BEAR LAKE	132	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
7789	PERMIAN RESIDENTIAL CARE CENTER	0.5%	53.8	B	TX	ANDREWS	0	ANDREWS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7790	JENKIN'S LIVING CENTER	0.5%	53.8	B	SD	WATERTOWN	110	—
7791	AVERA SISTER JAMES CARE CENTER	0.5%	53.8	D	SD	YANKTON	194	AVERA HEALTH
7792	WINNER REGIONAL HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.5%	53.8	A	SD	WINNER	40	—
7793	PATTY ELWOOD CENTER	0.5%	53.8	C	IA	CRESCO	24	—
7794	HEARTHSTONE MANOR	0.5%	53.8	D	IL	WOODSTOCK	73	—
7795	BEACON HILL	0.5%	53.8	C	IL	LOMBARD	45	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
7796	SEQUOIAS SAN FRANCISCO CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.5%	53.8	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	50	SEQUOIA LIVING INC
7797	WHITE OAK HEALTH CAMPUS	0.5%	53.8	C	IN	MONTICELLO	61	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7798	HARMONY RIVER LIVING CENTER	0.5%	53.8	A	MN	HUTCHINSON	120	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
7799	CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY HOME	0.5%	53.8	B	WI	HUDSON	50	CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY HOMES AND SERVICES INC
7800	Mission Point Nursing & Physical Rehabilitation Center of Madison Heights	0.5%	53.8	D	MI	Madison Heights	154	—

Showing 7,751–7,800 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.