Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,701–7,750

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7701	THE TERRACES AT SKYLINE	0.5%	54.3	C	WA	SEATTLE	34	PRESBYTERIAN RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES NORTHWEST
7702	OUR LADY OF ANGELS RET HOME	0.5%	54.3	C	IL	JOLIET	83	—
7703	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ALBERT LEA	0.5%	54.3	A	MN	ALBERT LEA	80	SANFORD
7704	SUMMITVIEW REHAB AND HEALTH CENTER	0.5%	54.3	B	WA	YAKIMA	78	HUMANGOOD
7705	GREENWOOD VILLAGE SOUTH	0.5%	54.3	A	IN	GREENWOOD	137	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7706	SALINA PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.5%	54.3	A	KS	SALINA	60	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
7707	CHAPIN CENTER	0.5%	54.3	C	MA	SPRINGFIELD	160	—
7708	WOODS HEALTH SERVICES	0.5%	54.3	A	CA	LA VERNE	74	—
7709	Country Care Manor	0.5%	54.3	B	TX	La Vernia	0	BEXAR COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7710	VILLA GARDENS HEALTH CARE UNIT	0.5%	54.3	A	CA	PASADENA	54	FRONT PORCH COMMUNITIES AND SERVICES
7711	HERITAGE INN OF BARNESVILLE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.5%	54.3	B	GA	BARNESVILLE	117	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7712	THE TERRACES OF LOS GATOS	0.5%	54.3	A	CA	LOS GATOS	59	HUMANGOOD
7713	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES AT MERAMEC BLUFFS	0.5%	54.3	B	MO	BALLWIN	32	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES
7714	BROAD ACRES HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	54.3	B	PA	WELLSBORO	120	CHR CONSULTING SERVICES INC
7715	(CLOSED) BAILEY PARK COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	0.5%	54.3	B	TN	HUMBOLDT	50	—
7716	WESTY COMMUNITY CARE HOME	0.5%	54.3	B	KS	WESTMORELAND	40	—
7717	Avera Rosebud Country Care Center	0.5%	54.3	A	SD	GREGORY	30	AVERA HEALTH
7718	RIVERSIDE LIFELONG HEALTH & REHABILITATION SALUD	0.5%	54.3	B	VA	SALUDA	60	RIVERSIDE HEALTHCARE ASSOCIATION INC
7719	PROVIDENCE SEWARD MOUNTAIN HAVEN	0.5%	54.3	A	AK	SEWARD	40	PROVIDENCE HEALTH & SERVICES WASHINGTON
7720	WEBSTER AT RYE	0.5%	54.3	A	NH	RYE	61	—
7721	ST CLARE HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	0.5%	54.3	C	TN	BARTLETT	48	—
7722	Exira Care Center	0.5%	54.3	B	IA	Exira	60	—
7723	LUTHERAN SOCIAL MINISTRIES CRANES MILL	0.5%	54.3	B	NJ	WEST CALDWELL	56	LUTHERAN SOCIAL MINISTRIES OF NEW JERSEY INC
7724	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - HAYS	0.5%	54.3	A	KS	HAYS	45	SANFORD
7725	Evangelical Home - Saline	0.5%	54.0	B	MI	Saline	143	EVANGELICAL HOMES OF MICHIGAN
7726	JOHN PAUL II NURSING HOME	0.5%	54.0	A	TX	KENEDY	58	—
7727	Parkview Home	0.5%	54.0	B	MN	BELVIEW	30	—
7728	ABERDEEN HEIGHTS	0.5%	54.0	A	MO	KIRKWOOD	38	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
7729	OTTERBEIN UNION TOWNSHIP	0.5%	54.0	A	OH	BATAVIA	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
7730	GORDON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	54.0	A	GA	CALHOUN	117	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7731	HIGHLANDS AT WYOMISSING	0.5%	54.0	A	PA	WYOMISSING	80	—
7732	EAST OHIO REGIONAL HOSPITAL LONG TERM CARE	0.5%	54.0	—	OH	MARTINS FERRY	50	—
7733	Wellspring Lutheran Nursing and Rehab Services	0.5%	54.0	B	MI	Monroe	122	—
7734	VICTORIA NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER, INC.	0.5%	54.0	A	FL	MIAMI	264	—
7735	TERRACE AT SOLARBRON THE	0.5%	54.0	F	IN	EVANSVILLE	91	CARDON AND ASSOCIATES INC
7736	Salisbury Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.5%	54.0	D	NC	Salisbury	185	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
7737	POLARIS HEALTH & WELLNESS OF ABBEY WOODS	0.5%	54.0	D	MO	SAINT JOSEPH	100	—
7738	ALLIANCE HEALTH AT BALDWINVILLE	0.5%	54.0	A	MA	BALDWINVILLE	94	ALLIANCE HEALTH INC
7739	Weskota Manor Inc	0.5%	54.0	B	SD	WESSINGTON SPRINGS	40	—
7740	PEABODY RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.5%	54.0	F	IN	NORTH MANCHESTER	192	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7741	HOLY CROSS HEALTH CENTER	0.5%	54.0	A	NH	MANCHESTER	40	—
7742	Woodridge Nursing Home	0.5%	54.0	C	VT	Barre	153	THE UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT HEALTH NETWORK INC
7743	BLESSING HOSPITAL SNU	0.5%	54.0	A	IL	QUINCY	20	BLESSING CORPORATE SERVICES INC
7744	CONTINUING CARE AT MARIS GROVE	0.5%	54.0	B	PA	GLEN MILLS	66	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
7745	STEVENS PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	54.0	A	GA	AUGUSTA	42	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7746	SAINT MARY'S VILLA NURSING HOM	0.5%	54.0	A	PA	MOSCOW	112	COVENANT HEALTH
7747	OTTERBEIN SUNSET HOUSE	0.5%	54.0	C	OH	TOLEDO	24	OTTERBEIN HOME
7748	Newcastle Place	0.5%	54.0	C	WI	Mequon	47	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
7749	BENEDICTINE LIVING COMMUNITY OF ST. PETER	0.5%	54.0	B	MN	ST PETER	79	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
7750	Memorial Community Care	0.5%	54.0	B	NE	Aurora	48	—

Showing 7,701–7,750 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.