Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

8,951–9,000

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8951	Epworth Villa Health Services	0.3%	46.8	C	OK	Oklahoma City	87	UNIDINE CORPORATION
8952	Penick Village	0.3%	46.8	A	NC	Southern Pines	32	—
8953	GRAND RIVER HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	CO	RIFLE	57	—
8954	GOOD SAMARITAN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CARE CTR	0.3%	46.8	C	NY	SAYVILLE	100	—
8955	GLASGOW GARDENS	0.3%	46.8	B	MO	GLASGOW	59	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8956	CONCORDIA OF THE SOUTH HILLS	0.3%	46.8	A	PA	PITTSBURGH	46	CONCORDIA CARE NETWORK
8957	JEANNE JUGAN RESIDENCE	0.3%	46.8	A	DC	WASHINGTON	40	—
8958	ODD FELLOWS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	ME	AUBURN	26	—
8959	JOHNSON CNTR/FALCONS LANDING	0.3%	46.8	A	VA	POTOMAC FALLS	60	—
8960	Honoka'a Hospital & Skilled Nursing	0.3%	46.8	A	HI	HONOKAA	66	HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
8961	LEVERING REGIONAL HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	MO	HANNIBAL	179	—
8962	ST CAMILLUS HEALTH CENTER	0.3%	46.8	B	WI	WAUWATOSA	50	—
8963	NORTHERN DUTCHESS RES HEALTH CARE FACILITY, INC	0.3%	46.8	D	NY	RHINEBECK	100	—
8964	NORWALK MEMORIAL HOME	0.3%	46.8	A	OH	NORWALK	69	FISHER TITUS HEALTH
8965	EMBASSY OF SHENANGO VALLEY	0.3%	46.8	D	PA	HERMITAGE	33	—
8966	Mission Ridge Rehab & Nursing Center	0.3%	46.8	C	TX	Refugio	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
8967	ESPECIALLY KIDZ HEALTH & REHAB	0.3%	46.8	B	IN	SHELBYVILLE	130	—
8968	AVERY NURSING HOME/NOBLE BUILDING	0.3%	46.8	C	CT	HARTFORD	194	—
8969	TOWNER COUNTY LIVING CTR	0.3%	46.8	A	ND	CANDO	28	—
8970	STELLA MARIS, INC.	0.3%	46.8	B	MD	TIMONIUM	390	MERCY HEALTH SERVICES INC
8971	WEIRTON MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	46.8	B	WV	WEIRTON	33	WEST VIRGINIA UNITED HEALTH SYSTEM INC
8972	CATHOLIC CARE CENTER, INC	0.3%	46.8	C	KS	BEL AIRE	159	—
8973	GOOD SHEPHERD COMMUNITY CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	46.8	B	MO	LOCKWOOD	69	—
8974	THE TERRACES AT LOS ALTOS HEALTH FACILITY	0.3%	46.8	A	CA	LOS ALTOS	30	HUMANGOOD NORCAL
8975	Denver Sunset Home	0.3%	46.8	A	IA	Denver	31	—
8976	ARMOUR OAKS SENIOR LIVING COMMUNITY	0.3%	46.8	B	MO	KANSAS CITY	38	—
8977	NORTHERN LIGHTS HCC	0.3%	46.8	C	WI	WASHBURN	50	—
8978	THE JEFFERSON	0.3%	46.8	B	VA	ARLINGTON	31	WELLTOWER INC
8979	Avir at Schertz	0.3%	46.8	D	TX	Schertz	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
8980	Kirkhaven	0.3%	46.8	B	NY	Rochester	147	—
8981	WARDE HEALTH CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	NH	WINDHAM	32	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
8982	Mother Hull Home	0.3%	46.8	A	NE	Kearney	58	—
8983	Bella Terra St George	0.3%	46.8	C	UT	St. George	149	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
8984	Valley Health Services Inc	0.3%	46.8	C	NY	HERKIMER	160	—
8985	FULTON COUNTY MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	PA	MCCONNELLSBURG	67	—
8986	Avir at Johnson City	0.3%	46.8	B	TX	Johnson City	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8987	Maine Veterans Home - Bangor	0.3%	46.8	C	ME	BANGOR	120	MAINE VETERANS HOME
8988	SAINT SIMEONS EPISCOPAL HOME	0.3%	46.8	B	OK	TULSA	109	—
8989	THE WHEATLANDS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	KS	KINGMAN	54	—
8990	DOW RUMMEL VILLAGE	0.3%	46.8	A	SD	SIOUX FALLS	50	—
8991	GARDENS AT WEST SHORE, THE	0.3%	46.8	D	PA	CAMP HILL	309	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
8992	WISHEK LIVING CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	ND	WISHEK	43	—
8993	MANOR COURT OF PEORIA	0.3%	46.8	B	IL	PEORIA	50	—
8994	OLD BROWNLEE COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.8	A	LA	BOSSIER CITY	89	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
8995	Harmar Place Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.3%	46.8	D	OH	MARIETTA	86	UNITED CHURCH HOMES INC
8996	HATTON PRAIRIE VILLAGE	0.3%	46.8	A	ND	HATTON	38	ST JOHN LUTHERAN CHURCH
8997	IHM Senior Living Community	0.3%	46.8	A	MI	Monroe	58	SAINT THERESE
8998	Lasata Care Center	0.3%	46.8	B	WI	Cedarburg	106	—
8999	St John's Health Sage Living	0.3%	46.8	A	WY	Jackson	60	—
9000	Hill View Skilled Nursing and Rehabilitation Cente	0.3%	46.3	B	OH	PORTSMOUTH	72	—

Showing 8,951–9,000 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.