Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,001–9,050

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9001	ELIZA JENNINGS HOME	0.3%	46.3	A	OH	CLEVELAND	126	ELIZA JENNINGS SENIOR CARE NETWORK
9002	Texoma Healthcare Center	0.3%	46.3	D	TX	Sherman	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9003	Avir at Hillsboro	0.3%	46.3	D	TX	HILLSBORO	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9004	NATHAN LITTAUER HOSPITAL NURSING HOME	0.3%	46.3	B	NY	GLOVERSVILLE	84	—
9005	MAGNOLIA MANOR OF MARION COUNTY	0.3%	46.3	A	GA	BUENA VISTA	70	MAGNOLIA MANOR INC
9006	Bayshore Nursing & Rehab	0.3%	46.3	B	WI	GLENDALE	112	BEDROCK HC WI LLC
9007	MCKENZIE COUNTY HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS LONG TERM CARE	0.3%	46.3	A	ND	WATFORD CITY	42	—
9008	ALFREDO GONZALEZ TEXAS STATE VETERANS HOME	0.3%	46.3	B	TX	MCALLEN	160	—
9009	LEGACY POINTE AT UCF	0.3%	46.3	D	FL	OVIEDO	48	—
9010	Fraser Health Center	0.3%	46.3	A	SC	Hilton Head Island	33	—
9011	Parkview Post-Acute and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	46.3	D	KY	Pikeville	120	—
9012	Garfield County Nursing Home	0.3%	46.3	A	UT	Panguitch	21	—
9013	ISLAND HOME PARK HEALTH AND REHAB	0.3%	46.3	A	TN	KNOXVILLE	95	—
9014	MITCHELL COUNTY HOSPITAL HEALTH SYSTEMS LTCU	0.3%	46.3	A	KS	BELOIT	36	MITCHELL COUNTY HOSPITAL HEALTH SYSTEMS
9015	THE GLEBE	0.3%	46.3	A	VA	DALEVILLE	32	VIRGINIA BAPTIST HOMES INC
9016	WESLEY TOWERS INC	0.3%	46.3	B	KS	HUTCHINSON	52	—
9017	WINDCREST NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	46.3	F	TX	WINDCREST	0	MEDINA COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9018	Veterans Victory House	0.3%	46.3	A	SC	Walterboro	220	STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA COMPTROLLER GENERAL
9019	Marian Regional Medical Center D/P SNF	0.3%	46.3	A	CA	Santa Maria	95	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
9020	HIGHVIEW OF NORTHAMPTON	0.3%	46.3	C	MA	LEEDS	120	—
9021	Martha Franks Baptist Retirement Center	0.3%	46.3	B	SC	Laurens	88	SCBMA
9022	RUNNINGWATER DRAW CARE CENTER INC	0.3%	46.3	A	TX	OLTON	75	—
9023	ST. JOHN OF GOD RETIREMENT	0.3%	46.3	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	156	—
9024	Little Cottonwood Rehabilitation and Nursing	0.3%	46.3	B	UT	South Salt Lake	37	—
9025	River's Bend Retirement Community	0.3%	46.3	A	KY	Kuttawa	40	—
9026	CHRISTIAN HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.3	C	NJ	WYCKOFF	304	CHRISTIAN HEALTH CARE CENTER
9027	Lomond Peak Nursing and Rehabilitation, LLC	0.3%	46.3	B	UT	Ogden	86	—
9028	MESA VIEW SENIOR LIVING	0.3%	46.3	A	TX	CANADIAN	48	—
9029	Franke Health Care Center	0.3%	46.3	A	SC	Mount Pleasant	44	LUTHERAN HOMES OF SC INC
9030	Katzman Family Center for Living	0.3%	46.3	A	MA	CHELSEA	123	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
9031	Gogebic Medical Care Facility	0.3%	46.3	A	MI	Wakefield	100	—
9032	LUTHERAN HOME AT KANE, THE	0.3%	46.3	A	PA	KANE	90	—
9033	Syringa Chalet Nursing Facility	0.3%	46.3	A	ID	Blackfoot	42	—
9034	MORNINGSIDE CENTER	0.3%	46.3	A	MO	CHILLICOTHE	60	—
9035	JULIAN J LEVITT FAMILY NURSING HOME	0.3%	46.3	B	MA	LONGMEADOW	200	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
9036	OZARK HEALTH NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.3%	46.3	A	AR	CLINTON	118	—
9037	ST JOSEPH RESIDENCE	0.3%	46.3	A	NH	MANCHESTER	22	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
9038	Christian Health Center	0.3%	46.3	A	KY	Bowling Green	45	CHRISTIAN CARE COMMUNITIES INC
9039	NMMC BALDWYN NURSING FACILITY	0.3%	46.3	D	MS	BALDWYN	107	—
9040	WILLOWCREST	0.3%	46.3	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	44	JEFFERSON HEALTH CORPORATION
9041	ARCHCARE AT PROVIDENCE REST	0.3%	46.3	C	NY	BRONX	200	CATHOLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS
9042	CHAMBERS POINTE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.3	A	PA	CHAMBERSBURG	50	—
9043	HOLZER SENIOR CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.3	C	OH	BIDWELL	41	HOLZER HEALTH SYSTEM
9044	Amie Holt Care Center	0.3%	46.3	A	WY	Buffalo	50	—
9045	BALDOMERO LOPEZ MEMORIAL VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.3%	46.3	A	FL	LAND O LAKES	120	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
9046	SSM HEALTH DEPAUL HOSPITAL - ANNA HOUSE	0.3%	46.3	A	MO	BRIDGETON	105	SSM HEALTH CARE CORPORATION
9047	Montereau, Inc.	0.3%	46.3	A	OK	Tulsa	74	—
9048	Stanton Health Center	0.3%	46.3	A	NE	Stanton	70	—
9049	The Lutheran Village At Miller's Grant	0.3%	46.3	A	MD	ELLICOTT CITY	16	SODEXHO INC
9050	Willow Ridge Wellness & Rehabilitation	0.3%	46.3	D	TX	Fort Worth	0	OLNEY HAMILTON HOSPITAL DISTRICT

Showing 9,001–9,050 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.