Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,051–9,100

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9051	Juliette Manor	0.3%	46.3	A	WI	Berlin	37	FROEDTERT THEDACARE HEALTH INC
9052	BAPTIST NURSING HOME-CALHOUN, INC	0.3%	46.3	A	MS	CALHOUN CITY	120	—
9053	COVENANT VILLAGE CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.3	B	FL	PLANTATION	60	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
9054	SUNNYSIDE CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.3	A	MN	LAKE PARK	30	MINNEWASKA LUTHERAN HOME
9055	Peabody Manor	0.3%	46.3	B	WI	Appleton	58	FROEDTERT THEDACARE HEALTH INC
9056	FOX SUBACUTE AT SOUTH PHILADELPHIA	0.3%	46.3	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	53	FOX SUBACUTE MANAGEMENT INC
9057	Garden County Hospital & Nursing Home	0.3%	46.3	A	NE	Oshkosh	24	—
9058	Penn Nursing Center	0.3%	46.3	B	NC	Reidsville	82	—
9059	Foxdale Village	0.3%	46.3	A	PA	STATE COLLEGE	46	MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
9060	MONTANA VETERANS HOME N H	0.3%	46.3	A	MT	COLUMBIA FALLS	105	—
9061	CENTRAL BAPTIST VILLAGE	0.3%	46.3	A	IL	NORRIDGE	116	—
9062	SOUTHMONT OF PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE	0.3%	46.3	B	PA	WASHINGTON	147	PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE
9063	FRIENDSHIP HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.3%	46.3	A	VA	ROANOKE	253	FRIENDSHIP FOUNDATION INC
9064	Chapters Living of Council Bluffs	0.3%	46.3	F	IA	Council Bluffs	102	—
9065	BENNETT COUNTY HOSPITAL AND NURSING HOME	0.3%	46.3	—	SD	MARTIN	32	—
9066	STONEBRIDGE AT MONTGOMERY HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.3	A	NJ	SKILLMAN	50	SPRINGPOINT SENIOR LIVING INC
9067	Highland Farms	0.3%	46.3	B	NC	Black Mountain	60	GIVENS ESTATES INC
9068	GREENE POINT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	46.3	B	GA	UNION POINT	64	CLINICAL SERVICES INC
9069	Crosbyton Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	46.3	C	TX	Crosbyton	0	BOOKER HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9070	Little Sisters of the Poor	0.3%	46.3	A	KY	Louisville	35	—
9071	Crowell Memorial Home	0.3%	46.3	B	NE	Blair	74	—
9072	CEDARS NURSING CARE CENTER	0.3%	46.3	B	ME	PORTLAND	102	—
9073	PINE RUN HEALTH CENTER	0.3%	46.3	A	PA	DOYLESTOWN	90	—
9074	NORTHERN RIVERVIEW HEALTH CARE, INC	0.3%	45.8	B	NY	HAVERSTRAW	182	—
9075	THE LAURELS OF CHAGRIN FALLS	0.3%	45.8	B	OH	CHAGRIN FALLS	82	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
9076	MN VETERANS HOME - LUVERNE	0.3%	45.8	A	MN	LUVERNE	85	—
9077	LAKE TAYLOR HOSP	0.3%	45.8	B	VA	NORFOLK	192	—
9078	St Joseph's Hillside Villa	0.3%	45.8	A	NE	West Point	54	FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHRISTIAN CHARITY SPONSORED MINISTRIES INC
9079	ST PATRICK'S RESIDENCE	0.3%	45.8	B	IL	NAPERVILLE	209	—
9080	IROQUOIS RESIDENT HOME, THE	0.3%	45.8	A	IL	WATSEKA	35	—
9081	SUNPORCH OF SMITH COUNTY	0.3%	45.8	A	KS	SMITH CENTER	22	GRACE TEAM LLC
9082	HARMONY MANOR SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.3%	45.8	A	NV	WINNEMUCCA	42	—
9083	MARYLAND MASONIC HOMES LTD	0.3%	45.8	C	MD	COCKEYSVILLE	88	—
9084	BIBB MEDICAL CENTER NURSING HOME	0.3%	45.8	A	AL	CENTREVILLE	131	—
9085	MANOR COURT OF MARYVILLE	0.3%	45.8	B	IL	MARYVILLE	132	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
9086	DUNSEITH COM NURSING HOME	0.3%	45.8	B	ND	DUNSEITH	30	—
9087	CEDAR HILL NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.3%	45.8	C	FL	JACKSONVILLE	120	VRD 10 HLDCO LLC
9088	EVENTIDE FARGO	0.3%	45.8	A	ND	FARGO	98	EVENTIDE
9089	RED BOILING SPRINGS TN OPCO LLC	0.3%	45.8	A	TN	RED BOILING SPRINGS	119	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
9090	Christian Health Center	0.3%	45.8	C	KY	Hopkinsville	114	CHRISTIAN CARE COMMUNITIES INC
9091	MERCY RETIREMENT & CARE CENTER	0.3%	45.8	A	CA	OAKLAND	59	—
9092	MEYER CARE CENTER	0.3%	45.8	A	MO	HIGGINSVILLE	56	—
9093	N J EASTERN STAR HOME	0.3%	45.8	B	NJ	BRIDGEWATER	82	—
9094	John Clarke Senior Living	0.3%	45.8	A	RI	Middletown	60	—
9095	GREENBRIAR AT THE ALTAMONT SKILLED NURSING FACILIT	0.3%	45.8	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	95	NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES INC
9096	THE HEALTH CENTER AT RICHLAND PLACE	0.3%	45.8	B	TN	NASHVILLE	107	NHC OP LP
9097	PEARL RIVER CO NURSING HOME	0.3%	45.8	A	MS	POPLARVILLE	110	FORREST COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL
9098	ARBOR WALK HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	45.8	A	MS	GREENVILLE	60	—
9099	CHRIST THE KING MANOR	0.3%	45.8	A	PA	DUBOIS	160	—
9100	ISLAND NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.3%	45.8	C	NY	HOLTSVILLE	120	GURWIN HEALTHCARE SYSTEM INC

Showing 9,051–9,100 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.