Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,101–9,150

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9101	COASTAL MANOR	0.3%	45.8	A	GA	LUDOWICI	108	—
9102	FRIENDS HOMES WEST	0.3%	45.8	B	NC	GREENSBORO	20	—
9103	EMORY L BENNETT MEMORIAL VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.3%	45.8	A	FL	DAYTONA BEACH	120	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
9104	WINDSORMEADE OF WILLIAMSBURG	0.3%	45.8	A	VA	WILLIAMSBURG	22	VIRGINIA UNITED METHODIST HOMES INC
9105	ST JOHNS ON FOUNTAIN LAKE	0.3%	45.8	B	MN	ALBERT LEA	84	—
9106	Cokato Manor	0.3%	45.8	A	MN	COKATO	56	—
9107	COMMONS RESIDENCE AT ORCHARD COVE	0.3%	45.8	F	MA	CANTON	45	—
9108	OAK CREST VILLAGE	0.3%	45.8	B	MD	PARKVILLE	80	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
9109	ANOKA REHABILITATION AND LIVING CENTER	0.3%	45.8	B	MN	ANOKA	120	VOLUNTEERS OF AMERICA NATIONAL SERVICES
9110	MORGANTOWN WOODS OF JOURNEY	0.3%	45.8	C	IN	MORGANTOWN	39	—
9111	EASTPORT MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	0.3%	45.8	A	ME	EASTPORT	26	—
9112	NEW GOUVERNEUR HOSPITAL S N F	0.3%	45.8	B	NY	NEW YORK	295	NEW YORK CITY HEALTH AND HOSPITALS CORPORATION
9113	Landmark of Plano Rehabilitation and Nursing Cente	0.3%	45.8	F	TX	Plano	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9114	Trinity Center at Luther Park	0.3%	45.8	B	IA	Des Moines	120	—
9115	RIVER HILLS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	45.8	C	TX	KERRVILLE	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9116	KUTZ REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.3%	45.8	C	DE	WILMINGTON	90	—
9117	Eastern Star Masonic Home	0.3%	45.8	B	IA	Boone	76	ECSI INC
9118	Wilmot Care Center Inc	0.3%	45.8	A	SD	WILMOT	26	—
9119	ARCHIE HENDRICKS SENIOR SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.3%	45.8	A	AZ	SELLS	60	—
9120	JEWISH HOME OF CENTRAL NEW YORK	0.3%	45.8	C	NY	SYRACUSE	132	—
9121	Friends Homes at Guilford	0.3%	45.8	A	NC	Greensboro	69	—
9122	Rochester Restorative Care Center	0.3%	45.8	C	MN	ROCHESTER	85	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9123	Mission Nursing Home	0.3%	45.8	B	MN	PLYMOUTH	70	—
9124	GREELEY COUNTY HOSPITAL LTCU	0.3%	45.8	A	KS	TRIBUNE	16	—
9125	Brookridge Retirement Community	0.3%	45.8	B	NC	Winston-Salem	77	BAPTIST RETIREMENT HOMES OF NORTH CAROLINA INCORPORATED
9126	ALTENHEIM	0.3%	45.8	A	OH	STRONGSVILLE	128	—
9127	NEW MADRID LIVING CENTER	0.3%	45.8	C	MO	NEW MADRID	112	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
9128	HOPKINS RESTORATIVE CARE CENTER	0.3%	45.8	B	MN	HOPKINS	65	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9129	TABOR HILLS HEALTH CARE FAC	0.3%	45.8	B	IL	NAPERVILLE	96	—
9130	Kershaw Health Karesh Long Term Care	0.3%	45.8	C	SC	Camden	132	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
9131	GERMAN CENTER FOR EXTENDED CARE	0.3%	45.8	A	MA	BOSTON	133	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
9132	Holland Home - Raybrook Manor	0.3%	45.8	A	MI	Grand Rapids	101	CONCEPT REHAB INC
9133	A.G. RHODES HOME, INC, THE	0.3%	45.8	A	GA	ATLANTA	138	UNIDINE CORPORATION
9134	RIVERVIEW ESTATES	0.3%	45.8	A	KS	MARQUETTE	36	—
9135	Anna John Resident Centered Care Community	0.3%	45.8	A	WI	Oneida	48	—
9136	SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA VETERAN'S CENTER	0.3%	45.8	A	PA	SPRING CITY	238	—
9137	Treyton Oak Towers	0.3%	45.8	B	KY	Louisville	60	—
9138	MARYCREST MANOR	0.3%	45.8	A	CA	CULVER CITY	57	—
9139	COUNTRY LANE GARDENS REHAB & NURSING CTR	0.3%	45.8	C	OH	PLEASANTVILLE	99	BRAUNSTEIN BEARS 2016 TRUST
9140	COMFORT CARE NURSING CENTER	0.3%	45.8	A	MS	LAUREL	126	SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
9141	APPLE VALLEY VILLAGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	45.8	A	MN	APPLE VALLEY	162	CASSIA
9142	LAKEWOOD MANOR	0.3%	45.8	A	VA	RICHMOND	96	VIRGINIA BAPTIST HOMES INC
9143	BREWSTER HEALTH CENTER	0.3%	45.8	B	KS	TOPEKA	97	—
9144	ROLAND PARK PLACE	0.3%	45.8	A	MD	BALTIMORE	16	—
9145	GROVE MANOR	0.3%	45.8	C	PA	GROVE CITY	59	—
9146	CALEB HITCHCOCK HEALTH CENTER	0.3%	45.8	A	CT	BLOOMFIELD	60	—
9147	St Patrick's Manor	0.3%	45.8	B	MA	FRAMINGHAM	333	—
9148	Oakwood Rehab and Nursing Center	0.3%	45.8	F	IL	WESTMONT	149	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
9149	TUDOR OAKS HEALTH CENTER	0.3%	45.8	C	WI	MUSKEGO	50	—
9150	BETHANY HOME ASSOCIATION	0.3%	45.8	A	KS	LINDSBORG	85	—

Showing 9,101–9,150 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.