Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,151–9,200

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9151	UNITED METHODIST COMMUNITIES AT COLLINGSWOOD	0.3%	45.8	A	NJ	COLLINGSWOOD	60	—
9152	MAINE VETERANS HOME - SCARBOROUGH	0.3%	45.8	A	ME	SCARBOROUGH	120	MAINE VETERANS HOME
9153	ELM CREST MANOR	0.3%	45.8	A	ND	NEW SALEM	62	—
9154	BLAND COUNTY NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.3%	45.8	A	VA	BASTIAN	57	MCCLINTIC OPERATIONS HOLDCO II LLC
9155	Door County Memorial Hospital SNF	0.3%	45.8	A	WI	Sturgeon Bay	32	ST VINCENT HOSPITAL HOSPITAL SISTERS THIRD ORDER OF ST FRANCIS
9156	ARCHBOLD LIVING CAIRO	0.3%	45.8	A	GA	CAIRO	75	JOHN D ARCHBOLD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC
9157	HEART OF AMERICA CARE CENTER	0.3%	45.8	—	ND	RUGBY	26	—
9158	CERENITY MARIAN OF ST PAUL LLC	0.3%	45.8	A	MN	SAINT PAUL	90	—
9159	RUTLAND NURSING HOME, INC	0.3%	45.8	D	NY	BROOKLYN	538	ONE BROOKLYN HEALTH SYSTEM INC
9160	OAKVIEW TERRACE	0.3%	45.8	A	SD	FREEMAN	45	—
9161	Pioneer Memorial Nursing Home	0.3%	45.8	B	SD	VIBORG	46	—
9162	LA CRESCENT HEALTH SERVICES	0.3%	45.8	B	MN	LA CRESCENT	42	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9163	EMERALD CARE	0.3%	45.8	B	WA	WAPATO	82	—
9164	Woodside Lutheran Home	0.3%	45.8	A	WI	Green Bay	118	—
9165	Glen Haven Village	0.3%	45.3	A	IA	Glenwood	69	—
9166	WESLEYAN VILLAGE	0.3%	45.3	D	OH	ELYRIA	99	—
9167	Arbor Acres United Methodist Retirement Community	0.3%	45.3	A	NC	Winston Salem	6	—
9168	MERCY CIRCLE	0.3%	45.3	B	IL	CHICAGO	23	TRINITY CONTINUING CARE SERVICES
9169	Ephrata Manor	0.3%	45.3	A	PA	EPHRATA	120	UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST HOMES
9170	Accolade Healthcare of Waterloo	0.3%	45.3	A	IL	WATERLOO	144	—
9171	JOSEPH L MORSE HEALTH CENTER INC THE	0.3%	45.3	B	FL	WEST PALM BEACH	230	—
9172	NAAMANS CREEK COUNTRY MANOR	0.3%	45.3	A	PA	BOOTHWYN	90	—
9173	Olympic View Post Acute	0.3%	45.3	D	WA	PORT ANGELES	101	KALESTA HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
9174	BEAUMONT AT BRYN MAWR	0.3%	45.3	A	PA	BRYN MAWR	44	BENCHMARK THERAPIES INC
9175	NC State Veterans Home - Fayetteville	0.3%	45.3	D	NC	Fayetteville	150	—
9176	DAWSON PLACE	0.3%	45.3	B	KS	HILL CITY	36	—
9177	CLARA BALDWIN STOCKER HOME FOR WOMEN	0.3%	45.3	C	CA	WEST COVINA	48	—
9178	Idaho State Veterans Home - Lewiston	0.3%	45.3	A	ID	Lewiston	66	—
9179	SUNNYSIDE PRESBYTERIAN RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.3%	45.3	A	VA	HARRISONBURG	84	—
9180	NORTHWOOD DEACONESS HEALTH CNT	0.3%	45.3	—	ND	NORTHWOOD	22	—
9181	BETHANY HOME SIOUX FALLS	0.3%	45.3	A	SD	SIOUX FALLS	52	AUGUSTANA LUTHERAN CHURCH
9182	CHATEAU AT MOORINGS PARK, THE	0.3%	45.3	A	FL	NAPLES	106	THE MOORINGS PARK INSTITUTE INC
9183	MERRIMACK COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.3%	45.3	C	NH	BOSCAWEN	290	—
9184	Bourbon Heights Nursing Home	0.3%	45.3	C	KY	Paris	99	—
9185	NEW YORK STATE VETERANS HOME AT MONTROSE	0.3%	45.3	C	NY	MONTROSE	252	—
9186	ALLIANCE HEALTH AT BRAINTREE	0.3%	45.3	A	MA	BRAINTREE	101	ALLIANCE HEALTH INC
9187	GLENWOOD SPRINGS HEALTHCARE	0.3%	45.3	B	CO	GLENWOOD SPRINGS	54	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
9188	CROWLEY COUNTY NURSING CENTER	0.3%	45.3	A	CO	ORDWAY	44	—
9189	Franklin County Transitional Care	0.3%	45.3	A	ID	Preston	35	COUNTY OF FRANKLIN
9190	SEMINOLE MANOR NURSING HOME	0.3%	45.3	A	GA	DONALSONVILLE	75	—
9191	HAVEN HALL HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	45.3	B	MS	BROOKHAVEN	81	—
9192	St Joseph Manor Health Care Inc	0.3%	45.3	A	MA	BROCKTON	118	—
9193	Sherwood Oaks	0.3%	45.3	B	PA	CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP	43	—
9194	Midwest Covenant Home	0.3%	45.3	A	NE	Stromsburg	51	—
9195	HOLLIDAYSBURG VETERANS HOME	0.3%	45.3	A	PA	HOLLIDAYSBURG	257	—
9196	DOUGLAS JACOBSON STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.3%	45.3	A	FL	PORT CHARLOTTE	120	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
9197	Galeon	0.3%	45.3	A	MN	OSAKIS	40	—
9198	THORNWALD HOME	0.3%	45.3	A	PA	CARLISLE	83	UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST HOMES
9199	Jan Frances Care Center	0.3%	45.3	D	OK	Ada	132	BGM ESTATE LLC
9200	GOLDEN HILL POST ACUTE	0.3%	45.3	B	CA	SAN DIEGO	99	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC

Showing 9,151–9,200 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.