Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,201–9,250

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9201	Mapleton Community Home	0.3%	45.3	A	MN	MAPLETON	59	—
9202	LEBANON VALLEY HOME THE	0.3%	45.3	A	PA	ANNVILLE	55	UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST HOMES
9203	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY HOWLAND	0.3%	45.3	A	OH	HOWLAND	65	—
9204	HOPE CARE CENTER	0.3%	45.3	C	MO	KANSAS CITY	16	—
9205	ST GERARD'S COMMUNITY OF CARE	0.3%	45.3	B	ND	HANKINSON	34	—
9206	COLUMBIA HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	45.3	A	WI	WYOCENA	85	—
9207	Saint Johns on the Lake	0.3%	45.3	A	WI	MILWAUKEE	27	—
9208	FOUR WINDS NURSING FACILITY	0.3%	45.3	B	OH	JACKSON	86	—
9209	WESLEY HEALTH CARE CENTER INC	0.3%	45.3	C	NY	SARATOGA SPRINGS	356	UNITED METHODIST HEALTH AND HOUSING INC
9210	VENTANA BY BUCKNER	0.3%	45.3	B	TX	DALLAS	0	BUCKNER RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
9211	FAIRVIEW	0.3%	45.3	A	CT	GROTON	120	—
9212	UNITED METHODIST COMMUNITIES AT BRISTOL GLEN	0.3%	45.3	B	NJ	NEWTON	60	—
9213	Bethesda Home of Aberdeen	0.3%	45.3	B	SD	ABERDEEN	86	—
9214	Cook Community Hospital C&NC	0.3%	45.3	A	MN	COOK	28	—
9215	CROWN CENTER AT LAUREL LAKE	0.3%	45.3	A	OH	HUDSON	75	—
9216	Buchanan County Health Center	0.3%	45.3	B	IA	Independence	39	—
9217	MISSOURI SLOPE	0.3%	45.3	C	ND	BISMARCK	37	—
9218	BERKSHIRE PLACE	0.3%	45.3	A	MA	PITTSFIELD	54	—
9219	Carol Woods	0.3%	45.3	A	NC	Chapel Hill	30	—
9220	JOHN L. LEVITOW HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	45.3	A	CT	ROCKY HILL	125	—
9221	SENECA HILL MANOR INC	0.3%	45.3	A	NY	OSWEGO	120	OSWEGO HEALTH INC
9222	WESTMINSTER OAKS	0.3%	45.3	A	FL	TALLAHASSEE	120	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
9223	Millcreek Manor	0.3%	45.3	B	PA	ERIE	144	MILLCREEK HEALTH SYSTEM
9224	Corewell Health Grand Rapids Hospitals Rehabilitat	0.3%	45.3	B	MI	Grand Rapids	120	COREWELL HEALTH
9225	OHIO LIVING SWAN CREEK	0.3%	45.3	B	OH	TOLEDO	34	—
9226	Piedmont Crossing	0.3%	45.3	A	NC	Thomasville	104	—
9227	Westview Health Care Center	0.3%	45.3	B	WY	Sheridan	102	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
9228	LEEWAY, INC	0.3%	45.3	A	CT	NEW HAVEN	30	—
9229	Paramount Health and Rehabilitation	0.3%	45.3	D	UT	Salt Lake City	99	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
9230	THE SPRINGS NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.3%	45.3	A	VA	HOT SPRINGS	60	KISSITO HEALTHCARE INC
9231	WHITEHALL REHAB & NURSING	0.3%	45.3	D	TX	CROCKETT	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9232	BUHLER SUNSHINE HOME	0.3%	45.3	A	KS	BUHLER	55	—
9233	CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	45.3	—	NJ	BELLEVILLE	20	—
9234	EMANATE HEALTH INTER-COMMUNITY HOSPITAL- D/P SNF	0.3%	45.3	B	CA	COVINA	25	—
9235	Wellington Place	0.3%	45.3	A	IA	Decorah	56	—
9236	WILLIS-KNIGHTON EXTENDED CARE CENTER	0.3%	45.3	B	LA	SHREVEPORT	24	—
9237	LAS VENTANAS RETIREMENT COMM SNF	0.3%	45.3	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	60	HUMANGOOD
9238	HELEN HAYES HOSPITAL T C U	0.3%	45.3	C	NY	WEST HAVERSTRAW	24	STATE OF NEW YORK COMPTROLLERS OFFICE
9239	PARK PLACE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY	0.3%	45.3	B	IL	ELMHURST	37	REST HAVEN ILLIANA CHRISTIAN CONVALESCENT HOME
9240	REGINA HEALTH CENTER	0.3%	45.3	B	OH	RICHFIELD	99	—
9241	PETERSBURG MEDICAL CENTER LTC	0.3%	44.9	A	AK	PETERSBURG	15	THE PETERSBURG MEDICAL CENTER
9242	SNYDER NURSING HOME	0.3%	44.9	A	VA	SALEM	45	—
9243	SKILLED NURSING AT FELLOWSHIP VILLAGE	0.3%	44.9	A	NJ	BASKING RIDGE	67	—
9244	RIVER GROVE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	44.9	C	TN	LOUDON	180	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
9245	Tripoli Nursing & Rehab	0.3%	44.9	A	IA	Tripoli	28	ECSI INC
9246	MAINEGENERAL REHAB & LONG TERM CARE - GRAY BIRCH	0.3%	44.9	C	ME	AUGUSTA	77	—
9247	CORNWALL MANOR	0.3%	44.9	A	PA	CORNWALL	96	—
9248	GROTON COMMUNITY HEALTH CARE CTR RES CARE FAC	0.3%	44.9	B	NY	GROTON	80	—
9249	OAK BEND MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	44.9	D	TX	RICHMOND	36	—
9250	PRAIRIE MANOR NURSING HOME	0.3%	44.9	A	LA	PINE PRAIRIE	100	—

Showing 9,201–9,250 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.