Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,251–9,300

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9251	EGER HEALTH CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	44.9	D	NY	STATEN ISLAND	378	—
9252	Heritage Health Services	0.3%	44.9	C	WI	Port Washington	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9253	JEFFERSON'S FERRY	0.3%	44.9	A	NY	SOUTH SETAUKET	60	—
9254	Gill Odd Fellows Home of Vermont	0.3%	44.9	A	VT	Ludlow	46	—
9255	Edison Christian Health Center	0.3%	44.9	A	MI	Grand Rapids	136	—
9256	Three Links Care Center	0.3%	44.9	B	MN	NORTHFIELD	92	—
9257	Friendship Haven, Inc	0.3%	44.9	A	IA	Fort Dodge	155	—
9258	Durham Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	44.9	C	NC	Durham	126	LBS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC
9259	APOSTOLIC CHRISTIAN HOME	0.3%	44.9	B	KS	SABETHA	76	—
9260	BRENDAN HOUSE	0.3%	44.9	C	MT	KALISPELL	110	MTWY HEALTH
9261	FRIENDSHIP HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER - SOUTH	0.3%	44.9	A	VA	ROANOKE	120	FRIENDSHIP FOUNDATION INC
9262	HANOVER TERRACE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	44.9	D	NH	HANOVER	100	BEAR MOUNTAIN HEALTHCARE LLC
9263	Trinity Ridge	0.3%	44.9	A	NC	Hickory	120	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
9264	SW VA M H INST GERI TRT CTR	0.3%	44.9	A	VA	MARION	25	—
9265	CLARK FORK VALLEY NURSING HOME	0.3%	44.9	B	MT	PLAINS	28	PLAINS HOSPITAL CORPORATION
9266	ASH GROVE HEALTHCARE FACILITY	0.3%	44.9	B	MO	ASH GROVE	82	—
9267	St Anthony Senior Services	0.3%	44.9	D	IA	Carroll	79	—
9268	MEADOWS ON FAIRVIEW	0.3%	44.9	A	MN	WYOMING	14	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
9269	ARIZONA STATE VETERAN HOME-TUCSON	0.3%	44.9	A	AZ	TUCSON	120	STATE OF ARIZONA STATE DEPT OF FINANCE
9270	LIFE CARE CENTER OF RED BANK	0.3%	44.9	D	TN	CHATTANOOGA	148	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
9271	YORKTOWN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	44.9	C	TX	YORKTOWN	0	DEWITT MEDICAL DISTRICT
9272	WATERS OF HUNTINGBURG, THE	0.3%	44.9	D	IN	HUNTINGBURG	95	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
9273	Rock River Nursing & Rehab	0.3%	44.9	D	WI	FORT ATKINSON	87	BEDROCK HC WI LLC
9274	GRAND VIEW CARE CTR	0.3%	44.9	A	WI	BLAIR	50	—
9275	AURELIA OSBORN FOX MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.3%	44.9	A	NY	ONEONTA	131	—
9276	GILMER NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	44.9	C	TX	GILMER	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
9277	OHIO LIVING BRECKENRIDGE VILLAGE	0.3%	44.9	B	OH	WILLOUGHBY	72	—
9278	MONTGOMERY PLACE	0.3%	44.9	C	IL	CHICAGO	40	—
9279	SOUDERTON MENNONITE HOMES	0.3%	44.9	A	PA	SOUDERTON	71	MATEVOSYAN INC
9280	BRETHREN RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.3%	44.9	B	OH	GREENVILLE	80	—
9281	BISHOP SPENCER PLACE, INC, THE	0.3%	44.9	B	MO	KANSAS CITY	57	—
9282	OHIO LIVING CAPE MAY	0.3%	44.9	A	OH	WILMINGTON	23	—
9283	WILLIAMS CO HILLSIDE COUNTRY L	0.3%	44.9	A	OH	BRYAN	71	—
9284	Woodland Terrace	0.3%	44.9	B	IA	Waverly	100	—
9285	FRIENDSHIP VILLAGE CHESTERFIELD	0.3%	44.9	A	MO	CHESTERFIELD	98	FV SERVICES INC
9286	AUGUSTANA CARE HASTINGS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	44.9	B	MN	HASTINGS	72	—
9287	SCHLEICHER COUNTY MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	44.9	A	TX	ELDORADO	34	—
9288	NOVANT HEALTH PRESBYTERIAN MEDICAL CENTER-SNU	0.3%	44.9	A	NC	CHARLOTTE	12	NOVANT HEALTH INC
9289	JEFFERSON COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.3%	44.9	A	MS	FAYETTE	60	—
9290	CYPRESS COVE CARE CENTER	0.3%	44.9	A	FL	CRYSTAL RIVER	120	HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT INC
9291	THE RESERVE AT SPRING HILL	0.3%	44.9	A	TN	SPRING HILL	68	—
9292	MEDINA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL S N F	0.3%	44.9	A	NY	MEDINA	30	—
9293	LAUREL RIDGE REHAB AND SKILLED CARE CENTER	0.3%	44.9	A	MA	BOSTON	120	ASCENTRIA CARE ALLIANCE INC
9294	NORWOOD HEALTHCARE	0.3%	44.9	C	MA	NORWOOD	170	NEXT STEP HEALTHCARE LLC
9295	WOODCREST AT BLAKEFORD	0.3%	44.9	B	TN	NASHVILLE	83	—
9296	Hagerstown Healthcare Center	0.3%	44.9	C	MD	HAGERSTOWN	140	RRW LLC
9297	NOTTINGHAM R H C F	0.3%	44.9	A	NY	JAMESVILLE	40	LORETTO MANAGEMENT CORP
9298	WILLOW BROOK CHRISTIAN HOME	0.3%	44.9	B	OH	COLUMBUS	50	—
9299	CLARK-LINDSEY VILLAGE	0.3%	44.9	C	IL	URBANA	25	—
9300	THE PINES HEALTHCARE & REHAB CTRS MACHIAS CAMPUS	0.3%	44.9	B	NY	MACHIAS	115	COUNTY OF CATTARAUGUS

Showing 9,251–9,300 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.