Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,301–9,350

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9301	Red Rocks Care Center	0.3%	44.9	B	NM	Gallup	102	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
9302	Calhoun County Medical Care Facility	0.3%	44.9	A	MI	Battle Creek	120	COUNTY OF CALHOUN
9303	PRESBYTERIAN VILLAGE NORTH SPECIAL CARE CTR	0.3%	44.9	C	TX	DALLAS	88	—
9304	FRIENDS NURSING HOME	0.3%	44.9	B	MD	SANDY SPRING	82	—
9305	EDEN VALLEY CARE CENTER	0.3%	44.9	A	CA	SOLEDAD	59	—
9306	RIVER CITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	44.9	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
9307	ONEIDA HEALTH REHABILITATION AND EXTENDED CARE	0.3%	44.9	D	NY	ONEIDA	160	—
9308	The Estates at Rush City LLC	0.3%	44.9	B	MN	RUSH CITY	41	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
9309	MEADOWLARK HILLS	0.3%	44.9	B	KS	MANHATTAN	134	MANHATTAN RETIREMENT FOUNDATION INC
9310	GOOD SAMARITAN CENTER	0.3%	44.9	A	FL	LIVE OAK	161	ADVENT CHRISTIAN VILLAGE INC
9311	DR SUSAN SMITH MCKINNEY NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.3%	44.9	C	NY	BROOKLYN	320	NEW YORK CITY HEALTH AND HOSPITALS CORPORATION
9312	GEORGE L MEE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.3%	44.9	A	CA	KING CITY	48	—
9313	Hegg Memorial Health Center	0.3%	44.9	A	IA	Rock Valley	60	—
9314	Redbanks Colonial Terrace	0.3%	44.9	B	KY	Sebree	87	—
9315	CHOCTAW RESIDENTIAL CENTER	0.3%	44.9	A	MS	CHOCTAW	120	—
9316	Maple Ridge Rehabilitation and Nursing	0.3%	44.9	C	UT	Salt Lake City	36	—
9317	Lampstand Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.3%	44.9	C	TX	Bryan	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
9318	Green Bay Health Services	0.3%	44.9	B	WI	Green Bay	125	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9319	MercyOne Centerville Medical Center	0.3%	44.9	A	IA	Centerville,	19	—
9320	OHIO LIVING MOUNT PLEASANT	0.3%	44.9	B	OH	MONROE	32	—
9321	BERKS HEIM NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.3%	44.4	A	PA	LEESPORT	420	—
9322	WOOD HAVEN HEALTH CARE SENIOR LIVING & REHAB	0.3%	44.4	A	OH	BOWLING GREEN	93	—
9323	Bethel Lutheran Home	0.3%	44.4	B	SD	MADISON	59	—
9324	TWILIGHT HAVEN	0.3%	44.4	C	CA	FRESNO	50	—
9325	WESLEY ENHANCED LIVING - DOYLESTOWN	0.3%	44.4	A	PA	DOYLESTOWN	60	—
9326	Deerings Nursing and Rehabilitation, LP	0.3%	44.4	D	TX	Odessa	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
9327	SNU ARMSTRONG CO MEMORIAL HOSP	0.3%	44.4	B	PA	KITTANNING	17	PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS CARE NETWORK
9328	MARYVILLE	0.3%	44.4	C	OR	BEAVERTON	165	—
9329	ST JOHNS NURSING CENTER	0.3%	44.4	C	FL	LAUDERDALE LAKES	181	ARCHDIOCESE OF MIAMI INC
9330	WELLS NURSING HOME INC	0.3%	44.4	B	NY	JOHNSTOWN	100	—
9331	Tieszen Memorial Home	0.3%	44.4	A	SD	MARION	64	—
9332	MCLEAN HEALTH CENTER	0.3%	44.4	B	CT	SIMSBURY	72	—
9333	MARJORIE P LEE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.3%	44.4	B	OH	CINCINNATI	88	EPISCOPAL RETIREMENT HOMES INC
9334	SCHOFIELD RESIDENCE	0.3%	44.4	A	NY	KENMORE	120	—
9335	MORAVIAN HALL SQUARE HEALTH AND WELLNESS CENTER	0.3%	44.4	B	PA	NAZARETH	61	UNITAS COMMUNITIES
9336	TWIN TOWERS	0.3%	44.4	B	OH	CINCINNATI	75	—
9337	Vernon Green Nursing Home	0.3%	44.4	B	VT	Vernon	60	—
9338	THE PLAZA HEALTH SERVICES AT SANTA MARTA	0.3%	44.4	A	KS	OLATHE	50	GREYSTONE MANAGEMENT SERVICES COMPANY LLC
9339	GOOD SHEPHERD NURSING HOME	0.3%	44.4	A	WV	WHEELING	192	—
9340	PARK VILLA	0.3%	44.4	A	KS	CLYDE	34	—
9341	JOHN KNOX VILLAGE OF POMPANO BEACH	0.3%	44.4	A	FL	POMPANO BEACH	194	QUALITY CARE REHAB INC
9342	Shirley Chapman Sholom Home East	0.3%	44.4	A	MN	SAINT PAUL	118	—
9343	ANTHONY COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	44.4	B	KS	ANTHONY	30	—
9344	The Suites at Western Home Communities	0.3%	44.4	B	IA	Cedar Falls	72	WESTERN HOME SERVICES INC
9345	THE WATERS OF CHEATHAM, LLC	0.3%	44.4	A	TN	ASHLAND CITY	80	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
9346	SHARP CHULA VISTA MED CTR SNF	0.3%	44.4	B	CA	CHULA VISTA	100	SHARP HEALTHCARE
9347	Virginia Gay Nursing & Rehab, LLC	0.3%	44.4	A	IA	Vinton	40	—
9348	F W HUSTON MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	44.4	A	KS	WINCHESTER	38	—
9349	Goldthwaite Health & Rehab Center	0.3%	44.4	F	TX	Goldthwaite	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9350	CENTRAL TODD COUNTY CARE CENTER	0.3%	44.4	A	MN	CLARISSA	45	—

Showing 9,301–9,350 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.