Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,351–9,400

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9351	St Paul Elder Services, Inc	0.3%	44.4	A	WI	Kaukauna	105	FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHRISTIAN CHARITY SPONSORED MINISTRIES INC
9352	Southwind Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	44.4	B	LA	Crowley	112	—
9353	NEW ENGLAND SINAI HOSPITAL TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	0.3%	44.4	—	MA	STOUGHTON	21	—
9354	PRESQUE ISLE REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	44.4	A	ME	PRESQUE ISLE	67	—
9355	BLUFFS, THE	0.3%	44.4	B	MO	COLUMBIA	132	—
9356	Humboldt County Memorial Hospital	0.3%	44.4	A	IA	Humboldt	28	—
9357	Gulf Shores Rehabilitation & Healthcare Center	0.3%	44.4	C	TX	Falfurrias	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9358	Wake Robin-Linden Nursing Home	0.3%	44.4	A	VT	Shelburne	33	—
9359	PROMEDICA GOERLICH MEMORY CARE CENTER (SYLVANIA)	0.3%	44.4	D	OH	SYLVANIA	60	—
9360	BRADLEY HOME INFIRMARY/PAVILION	0.3%	44.4	B	CT	MERIDEN	30	—
9361	MARY WADE HOME, THE INCORPORATED	0.3%	44.4	B	CT	NEW HAVEN	94	—
9362	Westward Heights Care Center	0.3%	44.4	A	WY	LANDER	60	—
9363	ST LUKE'S NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	44.4	B	MO	CARTHAGE	95	—
9364	ROANE GENERAL HOSPITAL	0.3%	44.4	A	WV	SPENCER	35	—
9365	WORTHINGTON CHRISTIAN VILLAGE	0.3%	44.4	A	OH	COLUMBUS	40	—
9366	Livingston County Center for Nursing and Rehabilit	0.3%	44.4	A	NY	Mount Morris	266	LIVINGSTON COUNTY
9367	OUR LADY OF PEACE INC	0.3%	44.4	A	VA	CHARLOTTESVILLE	30	—
9368	Avir at Knox City	0.3%	44.4	B	TX	KNOX CITY	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
9369	Crown Pointe Estates Care Center	0.3%	44.4	B	IA	Sioux Center	99	SIOUX CENTER HEALTH
9370	ST. JOSEPH'S NURSING HOME	0.3%	44.4	A	MD	CATONSVILLE	44	—
9371	ST ELIZABETH FT THOMAS SNF	0.3%	44.4	B	KY	Fort Thomas	20	—
9372	Gracewell, An Eventide Community	0.3%	44.4	A	IA	Denison	84	—
9373	INGLESIDE AT ROCK CREEK	0.3%	44.4	B	DC	WASHINGTON	34	—
9374	BRONXCARE SPECIAL CARE CENTER	0.3%	44.4	B	NY	BRONX	240	—
9375	Canterbury Woods	0.3%	44.4	A	NY	WILLIAMSVILLE	50	—
9376	Sheboygan Senior Community Inc	0.3%	44.4	A	WI	Sheboygan	60	—
9377	WEST VIEW HEALTHY LIVING	0.3%	44.4	A	OH	WOOSTER	93	—
9378	Atterdag Care Center	0.3%	44.4	A	CA	Solvang	50	—
9379	MT HOPE NAZARENE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.3%	44.4	A	PA	MANHEIM	50	—
9380	PECONIC LANDING AT SOUTHOLD	0.3%	44.4	B	NY	GREENPORT	66	—
9381	ELK HAVEN NURSING HOME	0.3%	44.4	B	PA	SAINT MARYS	120	—
9382	SANFORD CARE CENTER VERMILLION	0.3%	44.4	D	SD	VERMILLION	66	—
9383	Avir at Belton	0.3%	44.4	C	TX	Belton	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9384	SEABURY	0.3%	44.4	B	CT	BLOOMFIELD	72	HEALTHPRO HERITAGE LLC
9385	PROTECTION VALLEY MANOR	0.3%	44.4	A	KS	PROTECTION	45	—
9386	UNITED LIVING COMMUNITY	0.3%	44.4	D	SD	BROOKINGS	67	—
9387	RIVER VALLEY SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.3%	44.4	B	OK	CLINTON	100	BRIDGES ESOP INC
9388	MEADOWS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	44.4	B	PA	DALLAS	130	—
9389	Mount Olivet Home	0.3%	44.4	A	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	92	—
9390	Heritage Manor	0.3%	44.4	B	MN	CHISHOLM	65	—
9391	A.G. RHODES HOME, INC - COBB	0.3%	44.4	A	GA	MARIETTA	130	UNIDINE CORPORATION
9392	EVERGREEN COMMUNITY OF JOHNSON COUNTY	0.3%	44.4	A	KS	OLATHE	86	EVERGREEN LIVING INNOVATIONS INC
9393	KAUAI VETERANS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.3%	44.4	A	HI	WAIMEA	20	HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
9394	Marian Home	0.3%	44.4	A	IA	Fort Dodge	90	—
9395	CHAPEL HILL COMMUNITY	0.3%	44.4	A	OH	CANAL FULTON	80	UNITED CHURCH HOMES INC
9396	THE CULPEPER	0.3%	44.4	A	VA	CULPEPER	47	VIRGINIA BAPTIST HOMES INC
9397	ELIZA BRYANT CENTER	0.3%	44.4	F	OH	CLEVELAND	8	—
9398	THE NEIGHBORHOODS AT BROOKVIEW	0.3%	44.4	A	SD	BROOKINGS	79	—
9399	HOMEWOOD LIVING WILLIAMSPORT	0.3%	44.4	C	MD	WILLIAMSPORT	82	—
9400	Lompoc Valley Medical Center Comprehensive Care Ce	0.3%	44.4	B	CA	Lompoc	110	—

Showing 9,351–9,400 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.