Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,401–9,450

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9401	WASHINGTON STATE WALLA WALLA VETERANS HOME	0.3%	44.4	B	WA	WALLA WALLA	80	WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF VETE
9402	VALLEY VIEW REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	44.4	A	PA	MONTOURSVILLE	163	—
9403	Bridges To Home	0.3%	44.4	A	WA	SHORELINE	12	—
9404	MAIN STREET CARE	0.3%	43.8	A	WV	HINTON	34	—
9405	KIRKWOOD BY THE RIVER	0.3%	43.8	B	AL	BIRMINGHAM	61	—
9406	TRINITY VILLAGE MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	43.8	C	AR	PINE BLUFF	94	—
9407	Greensboro Nursing Home	0.3%	43.8	A	VT	Greensboro	30	—
9408	Catholic Eldercare On Main	0.3%	43.8	A	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	164	—
9409	DIVERSICARE OF OXFORD	0.3%	43.8	B	AL	OXFORD	173	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
9410	Avir at Comfort	0.3%	43.8	B	TX	COMFORT	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9411	ARCADIA RETIREMENT RESIDENCE	0.3%	43.8	A	HI	HONOLULU	91	ARCADIA ELDER SERVICES
9412	GULF COAST VILLAGE	0.3%	43.8	D	FL	CAPE CORAL	85	—
9413	FAIRWAY VIEW NEIGHBORHOODS	0.3%	43.8	A	MN	ORTONVILLE	51	CITY OF ORTONVILLE
9414	GREEN PINE ACRES NURSING HOME	0.3%	43.8	A	MN	MENAHGA	65	—
9415	WESLEY WOODS AT NEW ALBANY	0.3%	43.8	B	OH	NEW ALBANY	16	—
9416	Guardian Angels Health & Rehab Center	0.3%	43.8	A	MN	HIBBING	65	—
9417	FRIENDSHIP VILLAGE SUNSET HILLS	0.3%	43.8	A	MO	SAINT LOUIS	144	FV SERVICES INC
9418	NEW GLARUS HOME	0.3%	43.8	B	WI	NEW GLARUS	100	—
9419	Pelican Health Randolph LLC	0.3%	43.8	C	NC	Charlotte	100	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
9420	MARBRIDGE VILLA	0.3%	43.8	A	TX	MANCHACA	92	—
9421	WASHINGTON CTR FOR AGING SVCS	0.3%	43.8	C	DC	WASHINGTON	259	—
9422	GEM CITY HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	43.8	A	OH	DAYTON	87	MAD FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
9423	UNITED METHODIST COMMUNITIES AT THE SHORES	0.3%	43.8	A	NJ	OCEAN CITY	60	—
9424	PRESBYTERIAN VILLAGE - ATHENS	0.3%	43.8	C	GA	ATHENS	40	—
9425	ZUCKERBERG SAN FRANCISCO GENERAL HOSP & TRAUMA SNF	0.3%	43.8	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	30	CITY & COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO
9426	SELFHELP HOME OF CHICAGO	0.3%	43.8	A	IL	CHICAGO	72	—
9427	VIKING MANOR NURSING HOME	0.3%	43.8	A	MN	ULEN	45	—
9428	OHIO LIVING SARAH MOORE	0.3%	43.8	A	OH	DELAWARE	47	—
9429	SMITH CROSSING	0.3%	43.8	B	IL	ORLAND PARK	92	—
9430	Carroll Lutheran Village	0.3%	43.8	B	MD	WESTMINSTER	72	SODEXHO INC
9431	RIVERVIEW HEALTH SERVICES	0.3%	43.8	A	WI	TOMAHAWK	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9432	Spring Valley Care Center	0.3%	43.8	A	MN	SPRING VALLEY	45	—
9433	HAZEL HAWKINS CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.3%	43.8	—	CA	HOLLISTER	0	SAN BENITO HEALTH CARE DISTRICT
9434	Bronson Commons	0.3%	43.8	A	MI	Mattawan	100	BRONSON HEALTH CARE GROUP INC
9435	FINGER LAKES CENTER FOR LIVING	0.3%	43.8	A	NY	AUBURN	80	—
9436	CLYDE W COSPER TEXAS STATE VETERANS HOME	0.3%	43.8	C	TX	BONHAM	160	—
9437	KATY MANOR	0.3%	43.8	A	MO	PILOT GROVE	60	—
9438	FAIRMONT MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	43.8	A	WV	FAIRMONT	30	WEST VIRGINIA UNITED HEALTH SYSTEM INC
9439	Genoa Community Hospital/LTC	0.3%	43.8	A	NE	Genoa	43	—
9440	EASTERN PLUMAS HOSPITAL- PORTOLA CAMPUS DP/SNF	0.3%	43.8	B	CA	PORTOLA	66	—
9441	Lake Moultrie Nursing Home	0.3%	43.8	B	SC	Saint Stephen	88	CLARENDON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
9442	Bellbrook	0.3%	43.8	A	MI	Rochester Hills	36	TRINITY CONTINUING CARE SERVICES
9443	SUMMIT SQUARE	0.3%	43.8	A	VA	WAYNESBORO	18	—
9444	Sunnycrest Manor	0.3%	43.8	A	IA	Dubuque	77	—
9445	ALICE BYRD TAWES NURSING HOME	0.3%	43.8	B	MD	CRISFIELD	76	—
9446	Marywood Nursing Care Center	0.3%	43.8	B	MI	Livonia	103	FELICIAN SERVICES INC
9447	RIDGEWOOD MANOR	0.3%	43.8	C	OH	MAUMEE	90	AOM HEALTHCARE LLC
9448	Kimball Farms Nursing Care Center	0.3%	43.8	A	MA	LENOX	74	—
9449	WESTMINSTER VILLAGE	0.3%	43.8	B	IL	BLOOMINGTON	48	—
9450	OROVILLE HOSPITAL ECU	0.3%	43.8	—	CA	OROVILLE	—	OROVILLE HOSPITAL

Showing 9,401–9,450 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.