Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,451–9,500

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9451	COLDWATER MANOR	0.3%	43.8	A	TX	STRATFORD	26	—
9452	CEDARFIELD PINNACLE LIVING	0.3%	43.8	A	VA	RICHMOND	20	VIRGINIA UNITED METHODIST HOMES INC
9453	LARSEN HEALTH CENTER	0.3%	43.8	B	FL	FORT MYERS	180	THE CHRISTIAN AND MISSIONARY ALLIANCE
9454	Martha T Berry MCF	0.3%	43.8	A	MI	Mount Clemems	217	MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
9455	ARLEIGH BURKE PAVILION	0.3%	43.8	B	VA	MC LEAN	49	NMCGR
9456	METHODIST HOME FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	43.8	B	NY	BRONX	120	—
9457	ST JOHNLAND NURSING CENTER INC	0.3%	43.8	C	NY	KINGS PARK	250	—
9458	BATTLE MOUNTAIN GENERAL HOSPITAL	0.3%	43.8	A	NV	BATTLE MOUNTAIN	25	—
9459	Cal Turner Rehab and Specialty Care	0.3%	43.8	A	KY	Scottsville	110	COMMONWEALTH HEALTH CORPORATION INC
9460	BOCA RATON REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	43.8	B	FL	BOCA RATON	120	—
9461	OHIO LIVING ROCKYNOL	0.3%	43.8	C	OH	AKRON	36	—
9462	MT HEALTHY CHRISTIAN HOME	0.3%	43.8	A	OH	CINCINNATI	75	THE CHRISTIAN BENEVOLENT ASSOCIATION OF GREATER CINCINNATI INC
9463	Lutheran Home	0.3%	43.8	A	WI	WAUWATOSA	160	—
9464	CLYDE E LASSEN STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.3%	43.8	A	FL	SAINT AUGUSTINE	120	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
9465	ELKINS REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER	0.3%	43.8	B	WV	ELKINS	111	—
9466	FRIENDSHIP MANOR	0.3%	43.8	A	IL	ROCK ISLAND	94	—
9467	KATHERINE AND CHARLES HOVER GREEN HOUSES	0.3%	43.8	A	CO	LONGMONT	48	—
9468	MANCHESTER COMMONS OF PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE	0.3%	43.8	B	PA	ERIE	78	PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE
9469	Wilton Retirement Community	0.3%	43.8	A	IA	Wilton	34	—
9470	Prestige Care Center of Nebraska City	0.3%	43.8	C	NE	Nebraska City	64	—
9471	THE WATERS OF SPRINGFIELD LLC	0.3%	43.8	F	TN	SPRINGFIELD	66	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
9472	Calvin Community	0.3%	43.8	C	IA	Des Moines	59	—
9473	Church Home of the Protestant Episcopal Church	0.3%	43.8	A	NY	Rochester	182	—
9474	GLENRIDGE ON PALMER RANCH INC.	0.3%	43.8	A	FL	SARASOTA	61	—
9475	WESLEY GLEN HEALTH SERVICES CORP	0.3%	43.8	B	OH	COLUMBUS	56	—
9476	SAMUEL MAHELONA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.3%	43.8	A	HI	KAPAA	66	—
9477	Crosslands	0.3%	43.8	A	PA	KENNETT SQUARE	60	—
9478	BROWNFIELD REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.3%	43.8	B	TX	BROWNFIELD	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9479	LEONARDVILLE NURSING HOME	0.3%	43.8	A	KS	LEONARDVILLE	55	—
9480	MT ALVERNA HOME INC	0.3%	43.8	B	OH	PARMA	153	FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHICAGO SERVICES CORPORATION
9481	ADMIRAL AT THE LAKE, THE	0.3%	43.8	B	IL	CHICAGO	36	—
9482	BROOKLYN UNITED METHODIST CHURCH HOME	0.3%	43.8	C	NY	BROOKLYN	120	—
9483	Courage Kenny Rehabilitation Institutes Trp	0.3%	43.8	A	MN	GOLDEN VALLEY	56	—
9484	LUTHER MEMORIAL HOME	0.3%	43.8	A	ND	MAYVILLE	62	—
9485	NOTRE DAME HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	43.8	A	CT	NORWALK	60	—
9486	VILLA CORONADO D/P SNF	0.3%	43.8	B	CA	CORONADO	122	SHARP HEALTHCARE
9487	Mountain View Health & Rehabilitation	0.3%	43.8	D	TX	El Paso	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
9488	ST. JOSEPH'S HOSPITAL	0.3%	43.8	A	WV	BUCKHANNON	16	WEST VIRGINIA UNITED HEALTH SYSTEM INC
9489	George E. Wahlen Ogden Veterans Home	0.3%	43.8	B	UT	Ogden	120	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
9490	LAKE STOCKTON HEALTHCARE FACILITY	0.3%	43.8	A	MO	STOCKTON	90	—
9491	CARING PLACE, THE	0.3%	43.8	B	PA	FRANKLIN	100	—
9492	PARKSIDE LUTHERAN HOME	0.3%	43.8	A	ND	LISBON	40	—
9493	BENT COUNTY HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	43.8	A	CO	LAS ANIMAS	56	—
9494	VILLA MARIA	0.3%	43.8	B	KS	MULVANE	64	—
9495	PRAIRIE SUNSET HOME INC	0.3%	43.8	A	KS	PRETTY PRAIRIE	43	—
9496	ST ROSE HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.3%	43.8	—	CA	HAYWARD	—	HAYWARD SISTERS HOSPITAL
9497	Estelline Nursing and Care Center	0.2%	43.2	A	SD	ESTELLINE	60	—
9498	UNITED ZION RETIREMENT COMMUNI	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	LITITZ	59	COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC
9499	Hendricks Community Hospital	0.2%	43.2	A	MN	HENDRICKS	48	—
9500	MOUNTAIN VIEW COMMUNITY	0.2%	43.2	A	NH	OSSIPEE	103	—

Showing 9,451–9,500 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.