Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,501–9,550

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9501	Spurgeon Manor	0.2%	43.2	A	IA	Dallas Center	55	—
9502	Westhills Village Health Care Facility	0.2%	43.2	A	SD	RAPID CITY	44	—
9503	EPISCOPAL CHURCH HOME THE GARDENS	0.2%	43.2	A	MN	SAINT PAUL	60	EPISCOPAL HOMES OF MINNESOTA
9504	BROOKE GROVE REHAB. & NSG CTR	0.2%	43.2	B	MD	SANDY SPRING	190	—
9505	KENTMERE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	43.2	A	DE	WILMINGTON	104	—
9506	PRESENCE ST JOSEPH HOSPITAL - CHICAGO	0.2%	43.2	—	IL	CHICAGO	26	—
9507	The Friendly Home	0.2%	43.2	A	NY	Rochester	200	—
9508	The Village of Legacy Pointe Nursing Facility	0.2%	43.2	D	IA	Waukee	46	—
9509	GUARDIAN ANGELS CARE CENTER	0.2%	43.2	B	MN	ELK RIVER	120	—
9510	CHASEHEALTH REHAB AND RESIDENTIAL CARE	0.2%	43.2	B	NY	NEW BERLIN	80	—
9511	Asbury Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	43.2	A	NC	Charlotte	120	—
9512	WOODWAY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	43.2	F	TX	WACO	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9513	Pleasant Springs Healthcare Center	0.2%	43.2	F	TX	Mount Pleasant	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9514	THE NICOL HOME	0.2%	43.2	A	KS	GLASCO	32	—
9515	MCV HEALTH CARE FACILITIES, INC	0.2%	43.2	A	OH	MASON	73	THE CHRISTIAN BENEVOLENT ASSOCIATION OF GREATER CINCINNATI INC
9516	IDEAL SENIOR LIVING CENTER	0.2%	43.2	B	NY	ENDICOTT	150	—
9517	LAUREL VIEW VILLAGE	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	DAVIDSVILLE	60	BENCHMARK THERAPIES INC
9518	TWIN OAKS CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.2%	43.2	A	GA	ALMA	88	—
9519	PLYMOUTH HARBORSIDE HEALTHCARE	0.2%	43.2	F	MA	PLYMOUTH	101	NEXT STEP HEALTHCARE LLC
9520	MATULAITIS REHABILITATION & SKILLED CARE	0.2%	43.2	A	CT	PUTNAM	119	—
9521	SPRINGFIELD MASONIC COMMUNITY	0.2%	43.2	A	OH	SPRINGFIELD	84	—
9522	TALIHINA MANOR	0.2%	43.2	A	OK	TALIHINA	69	BGM ESTATE LLC
9523	PAUL'S RUN	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	119	LIBERTY LUTHERAN SERVICES
9524	Michael J Fitzmaurice South Dakota Veterans Home	0.2%	43.2	A	SD	HOT SPRINGS	78	—
9525	PARKVIEW HEALTH CARE FACILITY	0.2%	43.2	B	MO	BOLIVAR	78	—
9526	HAYWARD HEALTH SERVICES	0.2%	43.2	C	WI	HAYWARD	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9527	MCCAMEY CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.2%	43.2	B	TX	MCCAMEY	30	—
9528	Saunders Medical Center	0.2%	43.2	A	NE	Wahoo	60	—
9529	HOMEWOOD LIVING PLUM CREEK, INC	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	HANOVER	120	—
9530	LORETTO HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	43.2	C	NY	SYRACUSE	583	—
9531	MAPLE FARM	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	AKRON	46	GARDEN SPOT COMMUNITIES
9532	Bethany Nursing Home & Health Related Facility Inc	0.2%	43.2	A	NY	Horseheads	122	—
9533	Spokane Veterans Home	0.2%	43.2	B	WA	SPOKANE	100	WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF VETE
9534	Lynwood Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.2%	43.2	C	TX	Levelland	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
9535	San Gabriel Rehabilitation and Care Center	0.2%	43.2	D	TX	Round Rock	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9536	Martin Health Center, INC	0.2%	43.2	C	IA	Cedar Falls	50	—
9537	AVIR AT FREDERICKSBURG	0.2%	43.2	C	TX	FREDERICKSBURG	0	VAL VERDE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9538	MARENGO NURSING HOME	0.2%	43.2	A	AL	LINDEN	78	—
9539	Bethesda Home	0.2%	43.2	A	SD	WEBSTER	50	—
9540	AVERA BORMANN MANOR	0.2%	43.2	D	SD	PARKSTON	50	—
9541	LITTLE RIVER NURSING & REHAB	0.2%	43.2	A	AR	ASHDOWN	85	—
9542	PLYMOUTH PLACE	0.2%	43.2	B	IL	LA GRANGE PARK	86	—
9543	Avir at Luling	0.2%	43.2	B	TX	Luling	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
9544	North Ridge Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	43.2	C	WI	Manitowoc	94	CHAMPION CARE LLC
9545	RIVERSIDE POSTACUTE CARE	0.2%	43.2	D	CA	RIVERSIDE	188	RMG CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
9546	Accel at College Station	0.2%	43.2	D	TX	College Station	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9547	Brothers Of Mercy Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	43.2	A	NY	CLARENCE	240	—
9548	SOUTH BOSTON HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	0.2%	43.2	D	VA	SOUTH BOSTON	216	BNV DYNASTY LLC
9549	Rumford Community Home	0.2%	43.2	B	ME	RUMFORD	32	—
9550	HAVENWOOD-HERITAGE HEIGHTS	0.2%	43.2	A	NH	CONCORD	70	—

Showing 9,501–9,550 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.