Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,551–9,600

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9551	SALEM NORTH HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	43.2	C	OH	SALEM	86	RRW LLC
9552	The Village of East Harbor	0.2%	43.2	C	MI	Chesterfield Township	102	—
9553	Harold and Grace Upjohn Community Care Center	0.2%	43.2	B	MI	Kalamazoo	87	—
9554	I O O F Home and Community Therapy Center	0.2%	43.2	C	IA	Mason City	82	—
9555	VETERANS HOME OF CALIFORNIA - FRESNO	0.2%	43.2	B	CA	FRESNO	120	DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
9556	Marlette Community Hospital LTCU	0.2%	43.2	A	MI	Marlette	39	BLUEWATER HEALTHCARE NETWORK
9557	NORTONVILLE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	43.2	C	KS	NORTONVILLE	45	—
9558	RIB LAKE HEALTH SERVICES	0.2%	43.2	B	WI	RIB LAKE	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
9559	CROSS KEYS VILLAGE-BRETHREN HOME COMMUNITY, THE	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	NEW OXFORD	100	—
9560	FAIRLAWN HAVEN	0.2%	43.2	A	OH	ARCHBOLD	99	—
9561	Knollwood Nursing Center	0.2%	43.2	A	MA	WORCESTER	82	—
9562	St Ann's Home	0.2%	43.2	B	MI	Grand Rapids	55	—
9563	RETREAT, THE	0.2%	43.2	A	GA	MONTICELLO	55	—
9564	WESTSIDE RETIREMENT VILLAGE	0.2%	43.2	D	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	132	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
9565	D SCOTT HUDGENS CENTER FOR SKILLED NURSING, THE	0.2%	43.2	A	GA	SUWANEE	32	—
9566	Fairview Manor	0.2%	43.2	A	NE	Fairmont	40	—
9567	PELICAN VALLEY HEALTH CENTER	0.2%	43.2	A	MN	PELICAN RAPIDS	28	KNUTE NELSON
9568	CREST VIEW NURSING HOME	0.2%	43.2	A	WI	NEW LISBON	50	—
9569	OAKDALE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	43.2	A	CA	OAKDALE	115	—
9570	THE PAVILION REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	43.2	C	OH	NORTH ROYALTON	0	BRAUNSTEIN BEARS 2016 TRUST
9571	Avir at Burleson	0.2%	43.2	C	TX	BURLESON	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9572	ARTMAN LUTHERAN HOME	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	AMBLER	61	LIBERTY LUTHERAN SERVICES
9573	Norwood Health Ctr-Central	0.2%	43.2	A	WI	Marshfield	32	—
9574	SANSBURY CARE CENTER	0.2%	43.2	A	KY	SAINT CATHARINE	48	—
9575	MORROW MEMORIAL HOME	0.2%	43.2	A	WI	SPARTA	80	—
9576	SAMARITAN KEEP NURSING HOME INC	0.2%	43.2	C	NY	WATERTOWN	272	—
9577	WILLOWBROOKE COURT SKILLED CARE CENTER AT BRITTANY	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	LANSDALE	92	—
9578	SPIRITRUST LUTHERAN THE VILLAGE AT UTZ TERRACE	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	HANOVER	40	—
9579	Meth-Wick Health Center	0.2%	43.2	A	IA	Cedar Rapids	69	—
9580	Trinity Oaks	0.2%	43.2	A	NC	Salisbury	115	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
9581	THE VILLAGE AT ROCKVILLE	0.2%	43.2	B	MD	ROCKVILLE	160	—
9582	SARASOTA MEMORIAL NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	43.2	A	FL	SARASOTA	120	—
9583	AVALON BY OTTERBEIN AT PERRYSBURG	0.2%	43.2	A	OH	PERRYSBURG	60	—
9584	VILLAGE AT PENN STATE, THE	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	STATE COLLEGE	36	LIBERTY LUTHERAN SERVICES
9585	RAPPAHANNOCK WESTMINSTER CANTERBURY	0.2%	43.2	A	VA	IRVINGTON	42	—
9586	MASONIC CARE COMMUNITY OF NEW YORK	0.2%	43.2	C	NY	UTICA	320	—
9587	HEALTHPARK CARE CENTER	0.2%	43.2	C	FL	FORT MYERS	112	LEE HEALTH SYSTEM INC
9588	MOUNTAINSIDE RESIDENTIAL CARE CENTER	0.2%	43.2	A	NY	MARGARETVILLE	82	—
9589	Pinnacle Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	43.2	B	UT	Price	100	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
9590	IRONDALE POST ACUTE	0.2%	43.2	B	CO	COMMERCE CITY	95	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
9591	Menifee Meadows Nursing & Rehab LLC	0.2%	43.2	C	KY	Frenchburg	60	—
9592	CLINTON-HICKMAN COUNTY NURSING FACILITY	0.2%	43.2	A	KY	CLINTON	46	—
9593	CHECOTAH NURSING CENTER	0.2%	43.2	A	OK	CHECOTAH	82	ABBOTT FAMILY LLC
9594	CHANDLER HALL HEALTH SERVICES	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	NEWTOWN	53	—
9595	SARAH A TODD MEMORIAL HOME	0.2%	43.2	A	PA	CARLISLE	117	UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST HOMES
9596	ST JOSEPHS HOME	0.2%	43.2	A	NY	OGDENSBURG	82	—
9597	WESTMINSTER-CANTERBURY OF RICHMOND	0.2%	43.2	A	VA	RICHMOND	158	WESTMINSTER CANTERBURY CORPORATION
9598	LEBANON VETERANS HOME	0.2%	43.2	A	OR	LEBANON	154	WESTCARE MANAGEMENT INC
9599	SPRINGMEADE HEALTHCENTER	0.2%	43.2	B	OH	TIPP CITY	99	—
9600	Nevins Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	43.2	B	MA	METHUEN	153	—

Showing 9,551–9,600 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.