Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

9,601–9,650

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9601	CHENEY GOLDEN AGE HOME	0.2%	43.2	A	KS	CHENEY	40	—
9602	Zarrow Pointe	0.2%	43.2	A	OK	Tulsa	62	THE TULSA JEWISH COMMUNITY RETIREMENT AND HEALTH CARE CENTER INC
9603	GOLDEN YEARS HEALTH CENTER	0.2%	43.2	B	WI	WALWORTH	24	—
9604	Maplewood Center	0.2%	43.2	C	WI	WEST ALLIS	150	—
9605	ST CABRINI NURSING HOME	0.2%	42.6	A	NY	DOBBS FERRY	304	HEALTHPRO HERITAGE LLC
9606	RIVER TOWNE CENTER	0.2%	42.6	C	GA	COLUMBUS	210	GEORGIA PYRAMID VENTURE LLC
9607	MCDONALD COUNTY LIVING CENTER	0.2%	42.6	D	MO	ANDERSON	96	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
9608	TREMPEALEAU CTY HCC IMD	0.2%	42.6	A	WI	WHITEHALL	34	—
9609	Scott County Nursing Center	0.2%	42.6	A	IL	WINCHESTER	49	—
9610	HOMELAND CENTER	0.2%	42.6	A	PA	HARRISBURG	95	—
9611	UNIVERSITY PLACE HEALTH CENTER AND ASSISTED LIVING	0.2%	42.6	A	IN	WEST LAFAYETTE	30	FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHICAGO SERVICES CORPORATION
9612	CLAYBERG, THE	0.2%	42.6	A	IL	CUBA	49	—
9613	QUYANNA CARE CENTER	0.2%	42.6	A	AK	NOME	18	—
9614	SHERRILL HOUSE	0.2%	42.6	B	MA	BOSTON	196	—
9615	Monument Healthcare and Nursing Center	0.2%	42.6	D	NE	Scottsbluff	160	LME FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
9616	Kadoka Nursing Home	0.2%	42.6	A	SD	KADOKA	31	—
9617	Payette Healthcare of Cascadia	0.2%	42.6	B	ID	Payette	80	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
9618	DELANO DISTRICT SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.2%	42.6	C	CA	DELANO	141	—
9619	REFORMED PRESBYTERIAN HOME	0.2%	42.6	A	PA	PITTSBURGH	58	—
9620	EDDY VILLAGE GREEN	0.2%	42.6	B	NY	COHOES	192	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
9621	SUMMIT VIEW OF FARRAGUT, LLC	0.2%	42.6	A	TN	KNOXVILLE	113	—
9622	CHRISTIAN CARE CENTER OF MEDINA	0.2%	42.6	F	TN	MEDINA	66	—
9623	GARDENS OF MCGREGOR AND AMASA STONE	0.2%	42.6	A	OH	EAST CLEVELAND	148	—
9624	THE LUTHERAN HOME: BELLE PLAINE	0.2%	42.6	B	MN	BELLE PLAINE	60	—
9625	OAKWOOD SNF LLC	0.2%	42.6	F	MD	MIDDLE RIVER	130	SAESSY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
9626	MASONIC VILLAGE AT LAFAYETTE HILL	0.2%	42.6	B	PA	LAFAYETTE HILL	50	MASONIC VILLAGES OF THE GRAND LODGE OF PENNSYLVANIA
9627	THE LEGACY MIDTOWN PARK	0.2%	42.6	B	TX	DALLAS	54	THE LEGACY SENIOR COMMUNITIES INC
9628	PHOENIX CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING,THE	0.2%	42.6	F	PA	PHOENIXVILLE	138	LME FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
9629	KIOWA HOSPITAL DISTRICT MANOR	0.2%	42.6	A	KS	KIOWA	29	—
9630	SOUTHWELL HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	42.6	A	GA	ADEL	95	—
9631	Good Shepherd Lutheran Home	0.2%	42.6	A	MN	SAUK RAPIDS	146	—
9632	NORTHCREST REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	42.6	C	OH	NAPOLEON	87	STARLIGHT HEALTHCARE LLC
9633	SOUTH COVE MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	42.6	A	MA	QUINCY	141	SYMBRIA REHAB INC
9634	VICAR'S LANDING NURSING HOME	0.2%	42.6	A	FL	PONTE VEDRA BEACH	30	—
9635	St. Jane de Chantal	0.2%	42.6	A	NE	Lincoln	103	—
9636	CALIFORNIA HOME FOR THE AGED	0.2%	42.6	A	CA	FRESNO	120	—
9637	LECOM at Asbury Ridge dba Saint Mary's Asbury Ridg	0.2%	42.6	B	PA	ERIE	80	—
9638	MORTON PLANT REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	42.6	A	FL	BELLEAIR	126	—
9639	LINCOLN GLEN SKILLED NURSING	0.2%	42.6	A	CA	SAN JOSE	59	—
9640	Focused Care at Sherman	0.2%	42.6	D	TX	Sherman	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
9641	NATHANIEL WITHERELL, THE	0.2%	42.6	B	CT	GREENWICH	202	—
9642	JERSEYVILLE MANOR	0.2%	42.6	A	IL	JERSEYVILLE	155	—
9643	Homestead of Hugo	0.2%	42.6	D	OK	Hugo	124	BGM ESTATE LLC
9644	HOMESTEAD VILLAGE, INC	0.2%	42.6	A	PA	LANCASTER	60	—
9645	Mervyn Sharp Bennion Central Utah Veterans Home	0.2%	42.6	A	UT	Payson	108	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
9646	Courtland Terrace	0.2%	42.6	B	NC	Gastonia	77	CAROMONT HEALTH INC
9647	East Ridge Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.2%	42.6	C	FL	CUTLER BAY	74	—
9648	CHEROKEE COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	42.6	A	AL	CENTRE	185	—
9649	LAKE FOREST PLACE	0.2%	42.6	A	IL	LAKE FOREST	50	PRESBYTERIAN HOMES
9650	Avir at Heritage	0.2%	42.6	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT

Showing 9,601–9,650 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.