Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,901–8,950

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8901	Lompoc Skilled Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	41.8	A	CA	Lompoc	120	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
8902	Greenwood Transitional Rehabilitation Unit	0.1%	41.8	A	SC	Greenwood	12	EPOCH ACQUISITION INC
8903	ALOIS ALZHEIMER'S CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	OH	CINCINNATI	93	CENTRAL ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS INC
8904	Oakmont Guest Care Center	0.1%	41.8	D	TX	Hurst	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8905	LAUDERDALE COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	TN	RIPLEY	71	—
8906	Durand Senior Care and Rehab Center	0.1%	41.8	B	MI	Durand	141	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
8907	CONCORDIA LUTHERAN HEALTH AND HUMAN CARE	0.1%	41.8	B	PA	CABOT	142	CONCORDIA CARE NETWORK
8908	Williamsburg Health & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	41.8	A	KY	Williamsburg	125	SEKY HOLDING CO
8909	GREENSPRING VILLAGE	0.1%	41.8	B	VA	SPRINGFIELD	62	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
8910	The Villa Rehab	0.1%	41.8	B	VT	St. Albans	30	—
8911	ASPIRE PHYSICAL RECOVERY CENTER AT CAHABA RIVER	0.1%	41.8	B	AL	VESTAVIA	120	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
8912	Royal Park Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	41.8	D	WA	SPOKANE	164	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
8913	LIFE CARE CENTER OF PLANO	0.1%	41.8	B	TX	PLANO	0	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8914	THE MEADOWS	0.1%	41.8	C	MS	FULTON	130	—
8915	AEGIS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	41.8	F	MO	WILDWOOD	66	VHS MO OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
8916	EXCEL CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	A	FL	TAMPA	120	FL SNF TRUST I
8917	NORTH POINT SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.1%	41.8	D	KS	PAOLA	53	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
8918	FAIRWAY VILLAGE	0.1%	41.8	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	53	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
8919	FAIRVIEW NURSING HOME	0.1%	41.8	A	NH	HUDSON	101	—
8920	Mission Point Nursing & Physical Rehabilitation Ce	0.1%	41.8	D	MI	Grandville	114	MISSION POINT MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8921	WATERFORD CARE CENTER, THE	0.1%	41.8	C	IL	CHICAGO	141	STERN FAMILY INVESTMENT TR
8922	HILL COUNTRY HEIGHTS	0.1%	41.8	C	TX	COPPERAS COVE	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
8923	MONTCARE AT BETHESDA	0.1%	41.8	B	MD	BETHESDA	120	MD3 OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC
8924	THE GRAND AT BETHANY SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.1%	41.8	C	OK	BETHANY	161	BRIDGES ESOP INC
8925	LACOMBE NURSING CENTRE	0.1%	41.8	A	LA	LACOMBE	98	INSPIRED HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
8926	SALINE CARE NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	41.8	A	IL	HARRISBURG	142	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
8927	GLEN COVE CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	41.8	C	NY	GLEN COVE	154	ESTATE OF MAYER LAUFER
8928	Meridian Care Monte Vista	0.1%	41.8	C	TX	San Antonio	106	—
8929	MYRTLES NURSING CENTER, LLC	0.1%	41.8	A	MS	COLUMBIA	98	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
8930	Willow Ridge Of NC	0.1%	41.8	C	NC	Rutherfordton	150	CCH HEALTHCARE LLC
8931	PRUITTHEALTH - BETHANY	0.1%	41.8	B	GA	MILLEN	100	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
8932	COURVILLE AT MANCHESTER	0.1%	41.8	B	NH	MANCHESTER	76	THE COURVILLE COMPANY INC
8933	DOVERWOOD VILLAGE	0.1%	41.8	C	OH	HAMILTON	99	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
8934	South Shore Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	A	KY	South Shore	60	BLUEGRASS CONSULTING GROUP LLC
8935	VAIDEN COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	MS	VAIDEN	60	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
8936	DIVERSICARE OF HUTCHINSON	0.1%	38.3	B	KS	HUTCHINSON	73	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
8937	MONTEREY PALMS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	CA	PALM DESERT	99	GRANCARE LLC
8938	SHIPPENSBURG REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	PA	SHIPPENSBURG	125	MLSPA LLC
8939	APPLE VALLEY POST-ACUTE REHAB	0.1%	38.3	A	CA	SEBASTOPOL	95	NAHS HOLDING INC
8940	SOUTHERN TRACE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	AR	BRYANT	116	JEJ ASSETS LP
8941	LINEVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	0.1%	38.3	A	AL	LINEVILLE	101	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
8942	Chestnut Hill Health and Rehabilitation Center LLC	0.1%	38.3	A	MA	EAST LONGMEADOW	135	BEAR MOUNTAIN HEALTHCARE LLC
8943	FUTURE CARE CHESAPEAKE	0.1%	38.3	A	MD	ARNOLD	152	FUTURE CARE HEALTH AND MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
8944	THRIVE OF FOX VALLEY	0.1%	38.3	B	IL	AURORA	68	LOCKWOOD INVESTMENTS LLC
8945	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	0.1%	38.3	A	IN	GARRETT	76	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
8946	HOLSTON REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	TN	KINGSPORT	204	—
8947	Cascade Senior Care Center	0.1%	38.3	C	MI	Jackson	108	ROBIN EISENBERG 2014 FAMILY TRUST
8948	MUSKINGUM SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	C	OH	BEVERLY	50	CONTINUING HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS INC
8949	EPISCOPAL CHURCH HOME THE GARDENS	0.1%	38.3	A	MN	SAINT PAUL	60	EPISCOPAL HOMES OF MINNESOTA
8950	STERLING CARE HILLHAVEN	0.1%	38.3	A	MD	ADELPHI	66	NMJ HOLDINGS LLC

Showing 8,901–8,950 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.