Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

9,351–9,400

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9351	PENNYPACK REHAB AND CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	54	ENS HOLDINGS LLC
9352	EAGLERIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	FL	FORT MYERS	120	—
9353	BRADFORD VILLAGE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	OK	EDMOND	122	BRIDGES ESOP INC
9354	Ivy at Davenport	0.1%	38.3	F	IA	Davenport	75	—
9355	VIVO HEALTHCARE FORT PIERCE	0.1%	38.3	B	FL	FORT PIERCE	79	NMJ HOLDINGS LLC
9356	ARBORS WEST	0.1%	38.3	C	OH	WEST JEFFERSON	94	B&Y TRUST
9357	FAMILY HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	KS	WICHITA	72	AXIOM CONSULTING LLC
9358	MELROSE HEALTHCARE	0.1%	38.3	C	MA	MELROSE	106	NEXT STEP HEALTHCARE LLC
9359	Life Care Center Of Columbia	0.1%	38.3	C	SC	Columbia	179	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
9360	Lahser Hills Care Centre	0.1%	38.3	B	MI	Southfield	127	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
9361	LANDMARK OF LANCASTER REHABILITATION AND NURSING C	0.1%	38.3	B	KY	Lancaster	96	A&M HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
9362	AUTUMN COURT	0.1%	38.3	A	OH	OTTAWA	50	LIONSTONE HZ OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
9363	Fort Valley Crossing of Journey LLC	0.1%	38.3	C	GA	FORT VALLEY	75	BARRES LLC
9364	ShorePointe Nursing Center	0.1%	38.3	B	MI	St. Clair Shores	200	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
9365	South Park East	0.1%	38.3	D	OK	Oklahoma City	47	PHOENIX HEALTHCARE LLC
9366	APERION CARE DEKALB	0.1%	38.3	F	IL	DEKALB	119	YOSEF MEYSTEL DECLARATION OF TR OF YOSEF MEYSTEL TTEE
9367	EMBASSY OF WOODVIEW	0.1%	38.3	A	OH	COLUMBUS	95	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
9368	Accura Healthcare of Milford	0.1%	38.3	A	IA	Milford	46	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
9369	The Cottages	0.1%	38.3	B	IA	Pella	100	WESLEYLIFE
9370	THE ELMS REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CENTER OF CRANBURY	0.1%	38.3	B	NJ	CRANBURY	120	MALT FAMILY TRUST
9371	HALLMARK HEALTHCARE OF PEKIN	0.1%	38.3	C	IL	PEKIN	71	FEJCC TRUST
9372	Highlands Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	38.3	B	KY	Louisville	154	BLUEGRASS CONSULTING GROUP LLC
9373	MAIN STREET CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	OH	AVON LAKE	120	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
9374	BOCA CIEGA CENTER	0.1%	38.3	D	FL	GULFPORT	120	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
9375	Madisonville Care Center	0.1%	38.3	D	TX	Madisonville	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
9376	THE SPRINGS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	CA	MURRIETA	170	—
9377	Guttenberg Care Center	0.1%	38.3	D	IA	Guttenberg	46	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
9378	HARALSON NSG & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	GA	BREMEN	120	CYPRESS OPERATING LLC
9379	CHESTERWOOD ATC	0.1%	38.3	B	OH	WEST CHESTER	125	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
9380	Santa Paula Post Acute Center	0.1%	38.3	C	CA	Santa Paula	99	LBCSP SKILLED LLC
9381	Cascades at Jacinto Rehab LP	0.1%	38.3	D	TX	Houston	0	—
9382	ADVANCED REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE OF VERNON	0.1%	38.3	A	TX	VERNON	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
9383	Ignite Medical Resort Norman, LLC	0.1%	38.3	D	OK	Norman	52	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
9384	Harnett Woods Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	A	NC	Dunn	100	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
9385	PRUITTHEALTH - CREEKSIDE	0.1%	38.3	A	GA	AUGUSTA	193	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
9386	APERION CARE MONROE	0.1%	38.3	A	IN	BLOOMINGTON	38	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
9387	KATHERINE'S PLACE AT WEDINGTON	0.1%	38.3	B	AR	FAYETTEVILLE	119	RHC OPERATIONS INC
9388	HILLCREST RETIREMENT VILLAGE	0.1%	38.3	D	IL	ROUND LAKE BEACH	140	—
9389	LORIEN NURSING & REHAB CTR - ELKRIDGE	0.1%	38.3	C	MD	ELKRIDGE	70	—
9390	BELMONT MANOR NURSING HOME, IN	0.1%	38.3	A	MA	BELMONT	156	—
9391	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE ZEPHYRHILLS	0.1%	38.3	A	FL	ZEPHYRHILLS	113	SEAM TRUST
9392	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT VOORHEES	0.1%	38.3	D	NJ	VOORHEES	120	—
9393	Life Care Center of North Glendale	0.1%	38.3	B	AZ	GLENDALE	223	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
9394	CONTINUING CARE AT LANTERN HILL	0.1%	38.3	B	NJ	NEW PROVIDENCE	40	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
9395	PLANTATION OAKS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	D	LA	WISNER	76	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
9396	LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONAL HOSPITAL SCU	0.1%	38.3	A	KY	Somerset	12	LEGACY LIFEPOINT HEALTH LLC
9397	Ebony Lake Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	D	TX	Brownsville	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
9398	CAPE REGENCY REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	MA	CENTERVILLE	120	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
9399	WHITEHALL REHAB & NURSING	0.1%	38.3	D	TX	CROCKETT	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9400	Kennybrook Village	0.1%	38.3	B	IA	Grimes	40	WSG LLC

Showing 9,351–9,400 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.