Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

951–1,000

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
951	MARQUIS OREGON CITY POST ACUTE REHAB	6.9%	94.4	B	OR	OREGON CITY	102	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
952	SMITHS MILL HEALTH CAMPUS	6.9%	94.4	D	OH	NEW ALBANY	58	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
953	EAST VIEW HEALTHCARE	6.9%	94.4	A	TX	HOUSTON	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
954	JUNIPER VILLAGE AT LINCOLN HEIGHTS	6.9%	94.4	D	TX	SAN ANTONIO	46	JUNIPER MANAGEMENT LLC
955	CHANDLER THERAPY & LIVING CENTER LLC	6.9%	94.3	C	OK	CHANDLER	76	—
956	CLOVERDALE HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.9%	94.3	A	CA	CLOVERDALE	72	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
957	Avir at Heritage Oaks	6.9%	94.3	C	TX	Lubbock	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
958	NHC HEALTHCARE, MURFREESBORO	6.9%	94.3	B	TN	MURFREESBORO	181	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
959	NHC PLACE AT COOL SPRINGS	6.9%	94.3	B	TN	FRANKLIN	121	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
960	Medilodge of Southfield	6.9%	94.3	B	MI	Southfield	182	B&Y TRUST
961	HARTSVILLE CONVALESCENT CENTER	6.9%	94.3	C	TN	HARTSVILLE	95	—
962	LIFE CARE CENTER OF SPARTA	6.9%	94.3	B	TN	SPARTA	100	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
963	EXETER CENTER	6.9%	94.3	B	NH	EXETER	81	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
964	MARQUIS CARE AT SHASTA	6.9%	94.3	C	CA	REDDING	180	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
965	ALTERCARE OF CANAL WINCHESTER POST-ACUTE RC	6.9%	94.3	C	OH	CANAL WINCHESTER	72	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
966	The Ambassador Nebraska City, Inc	6.9%	94.3	B	NE	Nebraska City	71	AMBASSADOR HOLDING COMPANY
967	ASBURY PLACE AT MARYVILLE	6.9%	94.3	C	TN	MARYVILLE	181	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
968	Louisville East Post Acute	6.9%	94.3	B	KY	Louisville	178	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
969	TOMAH NURSING AND REHAB	6.9%	94.3	B	WI	TOMAH	74	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
970	ELKTON NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	6.9%	94.3	B	MD	ELKTON	182	RMA EQUITY LLC
971	RIVER OAKS SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	6.9%	94.3	B	OK	EL RENO	120	BRIDGES ESOP INC
972	WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS CENTER	6.8%	94.2	C	WV	WHITE SULPHUR SPRING	68	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
973	Owyhee Health & Rehabilitation Center	6.8%	94.2	B	ID	Homedale	58	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
974	STANDING STONE CARE AND REHAB	6.8%	94.2	B	TN	MONTEREY	115	WHEATEN LLC
975	Resolve Harmony Center, LLC	6.8%	94.2	C	AZ	PHOENIX	115	—
976	Graham Oaks Care Center	6.8%	94.2	C	TX	Graham	0	COUNTY OF THROCKMORTON
977	Peak Resources-Outer Banks	6.8%	94.2	C	NC	Nags Head	126	PEAK RESOURCES INC
978	CIVITA CARE CENTER AT NEWINGTON	6.8%	94.2	D	CT	NEWINGTON	180	ESNH LLC
979	CARECORE AT MENTOR	6.8%	94.2	C	OH	MENTOR	124	CARECORE HEALTH LLC
980	FAIRLAND CENTER	6.8%	94.2	B	MD	SILVER SPRING	92	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
981	WAGONER HEALTH & REHAB	6.8%	94.2	C	OK	WAGONER	117	—
982	SOUTH JERSEY EXTENDED CARE	6.8%	94.2	D	NJ	BRIDGETON	167	—
983	Belle Teche Nursing & Rehab Center	6.8%	94.2	D	LA	New Iberia	150	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
984	Woods at Lumber City of Journey LLC, The	6.8%	94.2	C	GA	LUMBER CITY	86	PEACH HEALTH GROUP LLC
985	LIFE CARE CENTER OF AURORA	6.8%	94.2	C	CO	AURORA	166	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
986	Regency Village	6.8%	94.2	C	TX	Webster	0	CHAMBERS COUNTY PUBLIC HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
987	THE PLAZA AT RICHARDSON	6.8%	94.2	B	TX	RICHARDSON	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
988	McKinley Park Care Center	6.8%	94.2	B	CA	Sacramento	86	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
989	HICKORY CREEK AT GREENSBURG	6.8%	94.1	C	IN	GREENSBURG	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
990	PRUITTHEALTH - LAFAYETTE	6.8%	94.1	B	GA	LAFAYETTE	100	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
991	GLENDALE GARDENS NURSING & REHAB	6.8%	94.1	B	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
992	Elmbrook Home	6.8%	94.1	B	OK	Ardmore	126	ELMBROOK PROPERTIES INC
993	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - CHURCHMAN CARE CENTER	6.8%	94.1	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	115	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
994	HUNTINGDON HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	6.8%	94.1	B	TN	HUNTINGDON	120	B&Y TRUST
995	PINE MEADOWS HEALTH CARE	6.8%	94.1	B	TN	BOLIVAR	134	B&Y TRUST
996	AVAMERE REHABILITATION OF OREGON CITY	6.8%	94.1	B	OR	OREGON CITY	111	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
997	Siler City Center	6.7%	94.1	B	NC	Siler City	150	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
998	DELTA OAKS POST ACUTE	6.7%	94.1	C	CA	STOCKTON	128	9560 PICO LLC
999	Avir at Jeffrey Place	6.7%	94.1	B	TX	Waco	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
1000	GREAT LAKES HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.7%	94.1	C	IN	DYER	134	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL

Showing 951–1,000 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.