Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

901–950

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
901	AVIR AT HASKELL	7.1%	94.7	B	TX	HASKELL	0	COUNTY OF THROCKMORTON
902	MATTHEWS MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE CENTER	7.1%	94.7	B	LA	ALEXANDRIA	124	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
903	GENERATIONS AT REGENCY	7.1%	94.7	F	IL	NILES	254	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
904	GARDEN CITY HEALTHCARE CENTER	7.1%	94.7	B	CA	MODESTO	104	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
905	MEDICALODGES ATCHISON	7.1%	94.7	A	KS	ATCHISON	60	MEDICALODGES INC
906	Calhoun Convalescent Center	7.1%	94.6	C	SC	Saint Matthews	120	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
907	WATERS OF WAKARUSA SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	7.1%	94.6	C	IN	WAKARUSA	133	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
908	Riverside Nursing Centre	7.1%	94.6	A	MI	Grand Haven	34	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
909	Lake Pleasant Post Acute Rehabilitation Center	7.1%	94.6	B	AZ	PEORIA	128	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
910	WATERS OF HUNTINGTON SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	7.1%	94.6	C	IN	HUNTINGTON	85	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
911	HARTVILLE CARE CENTER	7.1%	94.6	D	MO	HARTVILLE	58	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
912	NORRITON SQUARE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	7.1%	94.6	B	PA	NORRISTOWN	99	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
913	The Laurels of Salisbury	7.1%	94.6	B	NC	Salisbury	80	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
914	Belhaven Nursing & Rehab Center	7.1%	94.6	F	IL	CHICAGO	221	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
915	CEDARGATE HEALTH CARE CENTER	7.1%	94.6	D	MO	POPLAR BLUFF	108	LEGACY HEALTH SERVICES INC
916	Life Care Center of Cheyenne	7.1%	94.6	C	WY	Cheyenne	160	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
917	WILLOW RIDGE CENTER	7.1%	94.6	A	TN	MAYNARDVILLE	77	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
918	HERITAGE AT LONGVIEW HEALTHCARE CENTER	7.0%	94.6	D	TX	LONGVIEW	0	—
919	RIVER OAKS CARE CENTER	7.0%	94.6	B	MO	STEELE	90	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
920	LOCUST GROVE RETIREMENT VILLAGE	7.0%	94.5	C	PA	MIFFLIN	104	LAVIE HOLDCO LLC
921	APPLE RIDGE CARE CENTER	7.0%	94.5	A	MO	WAVERLY	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
922	WATERS OF CHESTERFIELD SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	7.0%	94.5	A	IN	CHESTERFIELD	60	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
923	CELEBRATE SENIOR LIVING OF FORT WAYNE	7.0%	94.5	C	IN	FORT WAYNE	118	MAJOR HOSPITAL
924	PONCA CITY NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	7.0%	94.5	C	OK	PONCA CITY	157	HEALTH SYSTEMS OF OKLAHOMA LLC
925	The Green Prairie Rehabilitation Center	7.0%	94.5	A	MN	PLAINVIEW	42	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
926	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - BRANDYWINE CARE CENTER	7.0%	94.5	B	IN	GREENFIELD	128	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
927	FOREST PARK NURSING & REHABILITATION	7.0%	94.5	F	TX	DALLAS	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
928	ST JOHNS PLACE OF ARKANSAS, LLC	7.0%	94.5	C	AR	FORDYCE	100	JEJ ASSETS LP
929	FOCUSED CARE AT HUNTSVILLE	7.0%	94.5	B	TX	HUNTSVILLE	88	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
930	WOLF CREEK CARE CENTER	7.0%	94.5	A	CA	GRASS VALLEY	59	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
931	TENNOVA LAFOLLETTE HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	7.0%	94.5	C	TN	LAFOLLETTE	98	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
932	COUNTRYSIDE MEADOWS	7.0%	94.5	C	IN	AVON	171	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
933	MISSION CARE CENTER	7.0%	94.5	B	CA	ROSEMEAD	59	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
934	MAJESTIC CARE OF CONNERSVILLE	7.0%	94.5	F	IN	CONNERSVILLE	113	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
935	ALPHA HOME - A WATERS COMMUNITY	7.0%	94.5	D	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	86	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
936	Shady Acres Health and Rehabilitation Center	7.0%	94.5	C	TX	Newton	0	—
937	Lakes At Litchfield	7.0%	94.5	A	SC	Pawleys Island	24	MAXWELL GROUP INC
938	PruittHealth-Trent	7.0%	94.5	B	NC	New Bern	116	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
939	TWIN WILLOWS NURSING CENTER	7.0%	94.5	B	IL	SALEM	72	—
940	DELMAR GARDENS WEST	7.0%	94.4	D	MO	TOWN AND COUNTRY	321	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
941	WATERS OF PRINCETON, THE	7.0%	94.4	D	IN	PRINCETON	95	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
942	WILLOW POINT REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	7.0%	94.4	C	KS	KANSAS CITY	45	MEDICALODGES INC
943	MAJESTIC OAKS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	7.0%	94.4	C	PA	WARMINSTER	180	TWOMAGNETS LLC
944	ARROWHEAD SENIOR LIVING COMMUNITY	7.0%	94.4	C	MO	OSAGE BEACH	80	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
945	Mala Strana Care & Rehabilitation Center	7.0%	94.4	A	MN	NEW PRAGUE	69	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
946	MAPLE GLEN CENTER	7.0%	94.4	B	NJ	FAIRLAWN	159	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
947	PLEASANT VALLEY MANOR CARE CENTER	7.0%	94.4	B	MO	LIBERTY	102	JUCKETTE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
948	LAKEWOOD HEALTHCARE CENTER	6.9%	94.4	C	CA	DOWNEY	290	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
949	ASTORIA PLACE OF WATERVILLE	6.9%	94.4	A	OH	WATERVILLE	90	—
950	King Nursing & Rehabilitation Community	6.9%	94.4	B	MI	Houghton Lake	61	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC

Showing 901–950 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.