Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,251–1,300

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1251	Mayo Healthcare Inc.	2.2%	91.8	A	VT	Northfield	50	—
1252	PEKIN MANOR	2.2%	91.8	C	IL	PEKIN	130	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
1253	HARMONY CARE AT STAMFORD	2.2%	91.8	C	TX	STAMFORD	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1254	MEADOWBROOK VILLAGE CHRISTIAN RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	2.2%	91.8	A	CA	ESCONDIDO	19	—
1255	OHIO LIVING MOUNT PLEASANT	2.2%	91.8	B	OH	MONROE	32	—
1256	FINNISH-AMERICAN VILLAGE	2.2%	91.8	A	FL	LAKE WORTH	45	—
1257	BAPTIST NURSING HOME-CALHOUN, INC	2.2%	91.8	A	MS	CALHOUN CITY	120	—
1258	HIRAM W DAVIS MEDICAL CTR	2.2%	91.8	A	VA	PETERSBURG	90	—
1259	APOPKA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	91.8	B	FL	APOPKA	180	—
1260	Wake Robin-Linden Nursing Home	2.2%	91.8	A	VT	Shelburne	33	—
1261	D SCOTT HUDGENS CENTER FOR SKILLED NURSING, THE	2.2%	91.8	A	GA	SUWANEE	32	—
1262	SARATOGA RETIREMENT COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER	2.2%	91.8	A	CA	SARATOGA	94	PRS MANAGEMENT INC
1263	GILMAN HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.2%	91.8	F	IL	GILMAN	99	—
1264	SHANNONDALE OF MARYVILLE HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.1%	91.7	A	TN	MARYVILLE	44	—
1265	ST CATHERINE LABOURE HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.1%	91.7	A	NY	BUFFALO	80	—
1266	PHOEBE BERKS	2.1%	91.7	A	PA	WERNERSVILLE	119	PHYSICIAN AND TACTICAL HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
1267	PEARL'S II EDEN FOR ELDERS	2.1%	91.7	B	MO	PRINCETON	60	—
1268	PILLARS OF NORTH COUNTY HEALTH & REHAB CENTER, THE	2.1%	91.7	F	MO	FLORISSANT	120	—
1269	FIRST COMMUNITY VILLAGE HEALTHCARE CTR	2.1%	91.7	C	OH	COLUMBUS	47	NATIONAL CHURCH RESIDENCES HEALTH CARE
1270	MERCY RETIREMENT & CARE CENTER	2.1%	91.7	A	CA	OAKLAND	59	—
1271	Tockwotton on the Waterfront	2.1%	91.7	A	RI	East Providence	52	—
1272	WESLEY HOMES DES MOINES HEALTH CENTER	2.1%	91.7	C	WA	DES MOINES	148	—
1273	BOOKER HOSPITAL DISTRICT DBA: TWIN OAKS MANOR	2.1%	91.7	A	TX	BOOKER	40	—
1274	FULTON MANOR NURSING & REHAB C	2.1%	91.7	A	OH	WAUSEON	71	—
1275	Bishop Noa Home for Senior Citizens	2.1%	91.7	A	MI	Escanaba	81	—
1276	LEHIGH VALLEY HOSPITAL TSU	2.1%	91.7	A	PA	ALLENTOWN	52	JEFFERSON HEALTH CORPORATION
1277	IDEAL SENIOR LIVING CENTER	2.1%	91.7	B	NY	ENDICOTT	150	—
1278	Sayre Christian Village Nursing Home	2.1%	91.7	B	KY	Lexington	164	—
1279	Homestead Rehabilitation & Health Care Center	2.1%	91.7	F	NJ	NEWTON	128	AM 145 HOLDINGS LLC
1280	ROLLING HILLS CARE CENTER	2.1%	91.6	B	OK	CATOOSA	126	—
1281	BENEFIS SENIOR SERVICES - WESTVIEW	2.1%	91.6	F	MT	GREAT FALLS	34	BENEFIS HEALTH SYSTEM INC
1282	BARNES-JEWISH EXTENDED CARE	2.1%	91.6	B	MO	SAINT LOUIS	120	BETHESDA HEALTH GROUP INC
1283	St Marys Home for the Aged	2.1%	91.6	A	WI	Manitowoc	84	FELICIAN SERVICES INC
1284	Schuyler Hospital Inc and Long Term Care Unit	2.1%	91.6	A	NY	Montour Falls	120	—
1285	MONSIGNOR BOJNOWSKI MANOR	2.1%	91.6	A	CT	NEW BRITAIN	60	—
1286	MERCY MANOR TRANSITION CENTER	2.1%	91.6	B	WI	JANESVILLE	28	MERCY HEALTH CORPORATION
1287	MAPLE LAWN SENIOR CARE	2.1%	91.6	A	MN	FULDA	46	—
1288	SHAWN MANOR NURSING HOME	2.1%	91.6	A	OK	PONCA CITY	96	—
1289	EAGLE PASS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	2.1%	91.6	A	TX	EAGLE PASS	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
1290	FOCUSED CARE AT CRANE	2.1%	91.6	B	TX	CRANE	0	—
1291	PRAIRIE HOUSE LIVING CENTER	2.1%	91.6	C	TX	PLAINVIEW	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
1292	Bethea Baptist Healthcare Center	2.1%	91.6	A	SC	Darlington	88	SCBMA
1293	DAVIESS COUNTY NURSING AND REHABILITATION	2.1%	91.6	C	MO	GALLATIN	97	—
1294	MAYFLOWER HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.1%	91.6	A	FL	WINTER PARK	60	—
1295	COBBLE HILL HEALTH CENTER INC	2.1%	91.6	C	NY	BROOKLYN	364	—
1296	SUNNYSIDE NURSING HOME	2.1%	91.6	B	FL	SARASOTA	60	—
1297	Deerfield Health Care Center	2.1%	91.5	A	IA	Urbandale	30	—
1298	WELLS NURSING HOME INC	2.1%	91.5	B	NY	JOHNSTOWN	100	—
1299	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES AT MERAMEC BLUFFS	2.1%	91.5	B	MO	BALLWIN	32	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES
1300	CAPITOL LAKES HEALTH CENTER	2.1%	91.5	B	WI	MADISON	49	PACIFIC RETIREMENT SERVICES INC

Showing 1,251–1,300 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.