Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,501–1,550

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1501	ROSE HAVEN RETREAT	1.8%	90.2	D	TX	ATLANTA	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1502	PARKVIEW CARE CENTER	1.8%	90.2	B	MN	WELLS	30	—
1503	HEATHER HILL HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.8%	90.2	C	FL	NEW PORT RICHEY	105	HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT INC
1504	MULBERRY HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.8%	90.2	B	TN	FRANKLIN	157	—
1505	St Luke's Helen G Nassif Transitional Care Center	1.8%	90.2	B	IA	Cedar Rapids	46	ST LUKE S HEALTHCARE
1506	MAGNOLIA MANOR OF COLUMBUS NURSING CENTER - EAST	1.8%	90.2	A	GA	COLUMBUS	210	MAGNOLIA MANOR INC
1507	GUEYDAN MEMORIAL GUEST HOME	1.8%	90.2	A	LA	GUEYDAN	66	—
1508	Sunrise Retirement Community	1.7%	90.2	B	IA	Sioux City	74	—
1509	Kimball Farms Nursing Care Center	1.7%	90.2	A	MA	LENOX	74	—
1510	EMERALD CARE CENTER MIDWEST	1.7%	90.2	C	OK	MIDWEST CITY	116	—
1511	HUNTINGTON HEALTH CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.7%	90.2	D	TX	HUNTINGTON	112	—
1512	PRESIDENTIAL OAKS	1.7%	90.1	B	NH	CONCORD	85	—
1513	TUPPER LAKE CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.7%	90.1	A	NY	TUPPER LAKE	60	—
1514	WESLEY WOODS AT NEW ALBANY	1.7%	90.1	B	OH	NEW ALBANY	16	—
1515	WAVERLY HEIGHTS	1.7%	90.1	A	PA	GLADWYNE	31	—
1516	Gil-Mor Manor	1.7%	90.1	A	MN	MORGAN	35	—
1517	LECOM at Asbury Ridge dba Saint Mary's Asbury Ridg	1.7%	90.1	B	PA	ERIE	80	—
1518	CHAPARRAL HOUSE	1.7%	90.1	A	CA	BERKELEY	49	—
1519	Accura Healthcare of O'Neill	1.7%	90.1	C	NE	O' Neill	84	—
1520	CROSS KEYS VILLAGE-BRETHREN HOME COMMUNITY, THE	1.7%	90.1	A	PA	NEW OXFORD	100	—
1521	WILL-O-BELL	1.7%	90.1	B	TX	BARTLETT	0	CHAMBERS COUNTY PUBLIC HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
1522	YALOBUSHA COUNTY NURSING HOME	1.7%	90.1	A	MS	WATER VALLEY	122	—
1523	ST ANDREW'S AT FRANCIS PLACE	1.7%	90.1	C	MO	EUREKA	106	ST ANDREWS RESOURCES FOR SENIORS SYSTEM
1524	SIBLEY MEM HOSP RENAISSANCE	1.7%	90.1	B	DC	WASHINGTON	45	THE JOHNS HOPKINS HEALTH SYSTEM CORPORATION
1525	MONTICELLO HOUSE	1.7%	90.1	A	PA	MEDIA	86	—
1526	UNITED METHODIST COMMUNITIES AT PITMAN	1.7%	90.1	B	NJ	PITMAN	72	—
1527	Bethesda Home	1.7%	90.1	A	SD	WEBSTER	50	—
1528	LEGACY NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.7%	90.1	D	TX	CAMERON	0	—
1529	WINNING WHEELS	1.7%	90.0	B	IL	PROPHETSTOWN	88	—
1530	PELICAN POINTE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	1.7%	90.0	B	LA	MAURICE	120	—
1531	Brazos Healthcare Center	1.7%	90.0	A	TX	Lake Jackson	0	—
1532	St Joseph Manor Health Care Inc	1.7%	90.0	A	MA	BROCKTON	118	—
1533	LUTHERAN COMMUNITY AT TELFORD	1.7%	90.0	A	PA	TELFORD	75	GRACE INSPIRED MINISTRIES
1534	THE SUITES AT JORDAN RIVER	1.7%	90.0	C	TN	COLLIERVILLE	60	—
1535	Mountain Vista Health Park	1.7%	90.0	A	NC	Denton	60	—
1536	St. Anne's Salvatorian Campus	1.7%	90.0	C	WI	MILWAUKEE	50	ILLUMINUS INC
1537	PLEASANT VIEW COMMUNITIES	1.7%	90.0	A	PA	MANHEIM	92	—
1538	MERIDIAN VILLAGE CARE CENTER	1.7%	90.0	A	IL	GLEN CARBON	70	—
1539	Stonehill Care Center	1.7%	90.0	A	IA	Dubuque	185	STONEHILL FRANCISCAN SERVICES
1540	MOUNT SINAI SOUTH NASSAU T C U	1.7%	90.0	A	NY	OCEANSIDE	20	—
1541	Wayne County Nursing Home	1.7%	90.0	A	NY	Lyons	192	—
1542	MOUNTAIN VIEW COMMUNITY	1.7%	89.9	A	NH	OSSIPEE	103	—
1543	Breckinridge Memorial Nursing Facility	1.7%	89.9	A	KY	Hardinsburg	18	—
1544	Heartland Ridge Care Center	1.7%	89.9	B	NE	Lincoln	47	—
1545	ST PAUL'S TOWERS	1.7%	89.9	A	CA	OAKLAND	43	FRONT PORCH COMMUNITIES AND SERVICES
1546	SW VA M H INST GERI TRT CTR	1.7%	89.9	A	VA	MARION	25	—
1547	MESA VIEW SENIOR LIVING	1.7%	89.9	A	TX	CANADIAN	48	—
1548	WARREN HAVEN REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	1.7%	89.9	F	NJ	OXFORD	180	—
1549	PARKWAY MANOR	1.7%	89.9	B	IL	MARION	131	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
1550	NORRIS SQUARE	1.7%	89.9	A	MN	COTTAGE GROVE	72	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC

Showing 1,501–1,550 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.