Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,251–2,300

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2251	Westmoreland Manor	1.0%	85.3	C	PA	GREENSBURG	408	CHR CONSULTING SERVICES INC
2252	Northville Manor	1.0%	85.3	C	MI	Northville	37	—
2253	WILLOW RIDGE OF MENNONITE HOME COMMUNITIES OF OHIO	1.0%	85.3	A	OH	BLUFFTON	20	BRETHREN RETIREMENT COMMUNITY
2254	Kalkaska Memorial Health Center	1.0%	85.3	C	MI	Kalkaska	104	—
2255	Clarkfield Care Center	1.0%	85.3	B	MN	CLARKFIELD	30	MINNEWASKA LUTHERAN HOME
2256	Rex Rehab & Nursing Care Center	1.0%	85.3	A	NC	Raleigh	120	UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
2257	JAFFREY REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.0%	85.3	C	NH	JAFFREY	83	—
2258	Woodland Park Nursing & Rehab	1.0%	85.3	F	TX	Shepherd	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2259	MEADOW LAKES	1.0%	85.3	B	NJ	EAST WINDSOR	60	SPRINGPOINT SENIOR LIVING INC
2260	GLENHAVEN RETIREMENT VILLAGE	1.0%	85.3	C	OK	CHICKASHA	120	—
2261	HRH TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT(A D/B/A ENTITY OF HRHS)	1.0%	85.3	A	PA	MEADOWBROOK	21	HOLY REDEEMER HEALTH SYSTEM
2262	HILLVIEW HEALTH CENTER	1.0%	85.3	A	TN	ELIZABETHTON	76	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
2263	ROYAL MEGANSETT NURSING & REHABILITATION	1.0%	85.3	A	MA	N FALMOUTH	90	—
2264	LUTHER MEMORIAL HOME	1.0%	85.3	A	ND	MAYVILLE	62	—
2265	Highland Farms	1.0%	85.3	B	NC	Black Mountain	60	GIVENS ESTATES INC
2266	Paul E Patton Eastern KY Veterans Center	1.0%	85.3	B	KY	Hazard	120	COMMONWEALTH OF KENTUCKY
2267	HEATHER MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.0%	85.3	A	AR	HOPE	128	—
2268	VETERANS COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER AT FITZSIMONS	0.9%	85.2	B	CO	AURORA	180	—
2269	PINK BUD HOME FOR THE GOLDEN YEARS	0.9%	85.2	B	AR	GREENWOOD	110	—
2270	JAMESTOWNE REHABILITATION	0.9%	85.2	B	OH	HAMILTON	42	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
2271	SUNSET HOME	0.9%	85.2	C	IL	QUINCY	132	—
2272	VERNON HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.9%	85.2	B	IN	WABASH	71	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
2273	MINOT HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	0.9%	85.2	D	ND	MINOT	108	—
2274	CURA OF LE SUEUR	0.9%	85.2	B	MN	LE SUEUR	50	TF MANAGEMENT LLC
2275	GOLDEN YEARS HOMESTEAD	0.9%	85.2	B	IN	FORT WAYNE	111	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
2276	Canyonland Care Center	0.9%	85.2	A	UT	Moab	36	—
2277	AVIR AT BURNET	0.9%	85.2	B	TX	BURNET	0	MCCULLOCH COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2278	FORESTVIEW	0.9%	85.2	A	PA	ERIE	80	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
2279	ARLINGTON RESIDENCE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.9%	85.2	C	TX	ARLINGTON	0	—
2280	BOSTON HOME, INC (THE)	0.9%	85.2	A	MA	BOSTON	96	—
2281	EL RENO POST-ACUTE REHABILITATION CENTER	0.9%	85.2	A	OK	EL RENO	66	—
2282	CREST NURSING HOME	0.9%	85.2	C	MT	BUTTE	103	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
2283	HERITAGE CENTER	0.9%	85.1	C	IN	EVANSVILLE	172	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2284	Vantage at Westfield LLC	0.9%	85.1	C	MA	WESTFIELD	98	—
2285	Mirabella	0.9%	85.1	C	WA	SEATTLE	46	PACIFIC RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
2286	Sam Swope Care Center	0.9%	85.1	B	KY	Masonic Home	136	—
2287	Bellbrook	0.9%	85.1	A	MI	Rochester Hills	36	TRINITY CONTINUING CARE SERVICES
2288	Fair Meadow Nursing Home	0.9%	85.1	A	MN	FERTILE	42	—
2289	KNOLLS OF OXFORD	0.9%	85.1	A	OH	OXFORD	50	BHI RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES INC
2290	Honoka'a Hospital & Skilled Nursing	0.9%	85.1	A	HI	HONOKAA	66	HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
2291	ASHBROOK CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.9%	85.1	F	NJ	SCOTCH PLAINS	114	—
2292	HELIA HEALTHCARE OF NEWTON	0.9%	85.1	D	IL	NEWTON	57	—
2293	LEISURE HOMESTEAD AT STAFFORD	0.9%	85.1	A	KS	STAFFORD	37	—
2294	Keystone Nursing Care Center INC	0.9%	85.1	A	IA	Keystone	55	—
2295	EDENWALD	0.9%	85.1	A	MD	TOWSON	70	—
2296	FOUNTAIN CARE AT SUNSET HILLS	0.9%	85.1	F	MO	SAINT LOUIS	166	—
2297	Colonial Manors of Columbus Community	0.9%	85.0	C	IA	Columbus Junction	39	—
2298	PAOLI HEALTH AND LIVING COMMUNITY	0.9%	85.0	D	IN	PAOLI	109	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
2299	WESTMINSTER WOODS ON JULINGTON CREEK	0.9%	85.0	A	FL	JACKSONVILLE	60	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
2300	BELVIDERE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.9%	85.0	C	IL	BELVIDERE	80	—

Showing 2,251–2,300 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.