Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,301–2,350

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2301	GALLERIA WOODS SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	4.3%	86.4	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	30	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
2302	THE GARDENS REHAB & CARE CENTER	4.3%	86.4	A	AZ	KINGMAN	58	ERNEST L HARMAN MD ZIA WAY LLC
2303	CAMDENTON WINDSOR ESTATES	4.3%	86.3	C	MO	CAMDENTON	82	—
2304	AVIVA AT FITZSIMONS	4.3%	86.3	C	CO	AURORA	100	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
2305	Medilodge of Taylor	4.3%	86.3	A	MI	Taylor	142	B&Y TRUST
2306	PARK PLACE TRANSITIONAL CARE AND REHABILITATION	4.3%	86.3	B	MT	GREAT FALLS	189	AJC HEALTHCARE LLC
2307	RAINBOW TERRACE CARE CENTER	4.3%	86.3	C	OK	WELEETKA	60	—
2308	Sprenger Health Care of Port Royal	4.3%	86.3	D	SC	Port Royal	65	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2309	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT CRYSTAL SPRINGS	4.3%	86.3	D	WV	ELKINS	84	NELLAS OPCO HOLDCO LLC
2310	GARDEN ISLE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.3%	86.3	C	HI	LIHUE	110	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
2311	HIGHLAND SPRINGS CARE CENTER	4.3%	86.3	B	CA	BEAUMONT	87	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
2312	Forest Glen Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	4.3%	86.3	C	OH	SPRINGFIELD	80	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2313	Port Washington Post Acute	4.3%	86.3	C	WA	BREMERTON	98	KALESTA HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
2314	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT WINDSOR	4.3%	86.3	C	CT	WINDSOR	108	—
2315	Wellspring Health & Rehabilitation of Cascadia	4.3%	86.3	B	ID	Nampa	120	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
2316	LORIEN TANEYTOWN, INC	4.3%	86.3	C	MD	TANEYTOWN	63	MARYLAND HEALTH ENTERPRISES INC
2317	PRUITTHEALTH - SOUTHWOOD	4.3%	86.3	C	FL	TALLAHASSEE	101	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2318	AVAMERE TRANSITIONAL CARE OF PUGET SOUND	4.3%	86.3	B	WA	TACOMA	60	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
2319	NHC HEALTHCARE, OAKWOOD	4.3%	86.3	B	TN	LEWISBURG	60	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
2320	Algona Manor Care Center	4.3%	86.3	A	IA	Algona	46	THOMAS F JUCKETTE MARITAL TRUST
2321	OAK LANE WELLNESS & REHABILITATIVE CENTER	4.3%	86.3	C	LA	EUNICE	130	—
2322	MESUN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.3%	86.3	C	GA	LAWRENCEVILLE	100	—
2323	Heritage Manor West	4.3%	86.3	A	LA	Shreveport	140	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
2324	Accura Healthcare of Spirit Lake	4.3%	86.2	B	IA	Spirit Lake	80	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
2325	RIDGECREST MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION	4.3%	86.2	A	VA	DUFFIELD	120	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2326	HARBOR VILLA CARE CENTER	4.3%	86.2	B	CA	ANAHEIM	99	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
2327	PACIFIC CARE AND REHABILITATION	4.3%	86.2	B	WA	HOQUIAM	72	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2328	COLLEGE PARK REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	4.3%	86.2	C	TX	WEATHERFORD	0	PARKER COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2329	OAKBROOK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.3%	86.2	B	SC	SUMMERVILLE	88	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
2330	VANCREST OF NEW CARLISLE	4.3%	86.2	B	OH	NEW CARLISLE	86	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
2331	CAROLETON HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.3%	86.2	B	IN	CONNERSVILLE	50	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2332	REGENCY CARE	4.3%	86.2	D	IL	SPRINGFIELD	99	HERITAGE OPERATIONS GROUP LLC
2333	Lake City Scranton Healthcare Center	4.3%	86.2	A	SC	Scranton	88	PALMETTO HEALTH CARE LLC
2334	Colonial Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	4.3%	86.2	F	TX	Lindale	0	HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2335	PARK MANOR OF SOUTH BELT	4.3%	86.2	A	TX	HOUSTON	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2336	STARR REGIONAL HEALTH & REHABILITATION	4.3%	86.2	B	TN	ETOWAH	88	LEGACY LIFEPOINT HEALTH LLC
2337	BEDFORD CARE CENTER OF HATTIESBURG	4.3%	86.2	A	MS	HATTIESBURG	120	BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
2338	LAURELS OF HUBER HEIGHTS THE	4.3%	86.2	C	OH	HUBER HEIGHTS	92	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2339	LAFAYETTE POINTE NURSING & REHAB CTR	4.3%	86.2	B	OH	WEST LAFAYETTE	65	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2340	Ayden Court Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	4.3%	86.2	A	NC	Ayden	82	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
2341	BRIGHTWOOD CENTER	4.3%	86.2	C	WV	FOLLANSBEE	115	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2342	BEL VISTA HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.3%	86.1	B	CA	LONG BEACH	41	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2343	LEMONT NURSING & REHAB CENTER	4.3%	86.1	D	IL	LEMONT	173	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
2344	HARMON HOSPITAL - SNF	4.3%	86.1	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	10	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
2345	ST LEONARD HCC	4.3%	86.1	D	OH	CENTERVILLE	150	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
2346	WARREN BARR SOUTH LOOP	4.3%	86.1	F	IL	CHICAGO	210	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
2347	OSAGE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.3%	86.1	B	KS	OSAGE CITY	53	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
2348	GROVE OF SKOKIE, THE	4.3%	86.1	C	IL	SKOKIE	149	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
2349	FERNCLIFF NURSING HOME CO INC	4.3%	86.1	D	NY	RHINEBECK	309	CATHOLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS
2350	VERNON HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.3%	86.1	F	CA	LOS ANGELES	99	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC

Showing 2,301–2,350 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.