Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,351–2,400

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2351	PRUITTHEALTH - MAGNOLIA MANOR	4.3%	86.1	B	GA	MOULTRIE	100	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2352	Medilodge of Grand Blanc	4.3%	86.1	C	MI	Grand Blanc	146	B&Y TRUST
2353	WESTWOOD HILLS HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.3%	86.1	F	MO	POPLAR BLUFF	132	—
2354	Avina of Weyauwega	4.3%	86.1	D	WI	Weyauwega	84	—
2355	BLAIR RIDGE HEALTH CAMPUS	4.3%	86.1	C	IN	PERU	55	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2356	JEFFERSONVILLE CARE CENTER LLC	4.3%	86.1	C	GA	JEFFERSONVILLE	131	PEACH HEALTH GROUP LLC
2357	ARROYO VISTA NURSING CENTER	4.3%	86.0	A	CA	SAN DIEGO	53	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2358	CUMBERLAND POINTE CARE CENTER	4.3%	86.0	C	OH	ST CLAIRSVILLE	75	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2359	ELMS RETIREMENT VILLAGE INC	4.3%	86.0	A	OH	WELLINGTON	60	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2360	Autumn Care of Nash	4.3%	86.0	A	NC	Nashville	60	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2361	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - KNOX CARE CENTER	4.3%	86.0	C	IN	KNOX	57	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
2362	CIVITA CARE MEADOWBROOK	4.3%	86.0	C	CT	GRANBY	90	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
2363	PRUITTHEALTH - FAIRBURN	4.3%	86.0	A	GA	FAIRBURN	82	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2364	WILLOWS HEALTH AND REHAB CTR	4.3%	86.0	C	OH	EUCLID	75	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2365	DELAWARE COURT HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.3%	86.0	B	OH	DELAWARE	75	LEVERING MANAGEMENT INC
2366	HILLSIDE PLAZA	4.3%	86.0	B	OH	CLEVELAND	47	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
2367	Glen Ridge Health Campus	4.3%	86.0	B	KY	Louisville	70	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2368	DELMAR GARDENS OF SMYRNA	4.3%	86.0	B	GA	SMYRNA	120	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
2369	LINCOLN MEADOWS CARE CENTER	4.3%	86.0	A	CA	LINCOLN	97	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2370	REO VISTA HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.3%	86.0	B	CA	SAN DIEGO	162	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2371	National City Post Acute	4.3%	86.0	C	CA	NATIONAL CITY	98	9560 PICO LLC
2372	HENRYETTA COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE & REHAB	4.3%	86.0	A	OK	HENRYETTA	53	THE DONNA RENEE SIMMONS REVOCABLE TRUST DATED DECEMBER 17 2012
2373	REGENCY HERMISTON NURSING & REHAB CENTER	4.3%	86.0	B	OR	HERMISTON	105	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
2374	PICAYUNE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.3%	86.0	B	MS	PICAYUNE	120	NEXION HEALTH INC
2375	BRIAR HILL HEALTH CAMPUS	4.3%	86.0	C	OH	NORTH BALTIMORE	54	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2376	HAVEN PLACE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	4.3%	85.9	B	PA	LOCK HAVEN	90	—
2377	LIFE CARE CENTER OF HICKORY WOODS	4.3%	85.9	B	TN	ANTIOCH	124	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2378	COUNTRY MEADOWS	4.3%	85.9	B	MO	PARK HILLS	72	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
2379	LACONIA REHABILITATION CENTER	4.3%	85.9	C	NH	LACONIA	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2380	WILLOW PARK REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	4.3%	85.9	D	TX	WILLOW PARK	0	PARKER COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2381	HERITAGE MANOR OF BATON ROUGE II	4.3%	85.9	B	LA	BATON ROUGE	144	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
2382	MAJESTIC CARE OF WEST ALLEN	4.3%	85.9	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	96	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2383	SOUTHRIDGE VILLAGE NURSING AND REHAB	4.3%	85.9	B	AR	HEBER SPRINGS	122	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2384	STRATFORD HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.3%	85.9	A	VA	DANVILLE	60	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2385	COMPLETE CARE AT SHORROCK	4.3%	85.9	C	NJ	BRICK	180	EEF CAPITAL LLC
2386	CARE ONE AT ESSEX PARK	4.3%	85.9	F	MA	BEVERLY	202	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
2387	HICKORY CREEK AT CONNERSVILLE	4.3%	85.9	A	IN	CONNERSVILLE	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
2388	ALDEN OF WATERFORD	4.3%	85.9	D	IL	AURORA	99	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2389	Terrace Post Acute	4.2%	85.8	F	CA	VAN NUYS	133	9560 PICO LLC
2390	Lancashire Post Acute	4.2%	85.8	C	VA	KILMARNOCK	120	GEORGE S MITCHELL JR RVOC TR
2391	WYANT WOODS HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.2%	85.8	A	OH	AKRON	180	RRW LLC
2392	Homestead Hills	4.2%	85.8	B	NC	Winston-Salem	40	MAXWELL GROUP INC
2393	HERITAGE HALL KING GEORGE	4.2%	85.8	C	VA	KING GEORGE	130	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
2394	Complete Care at Manitowoc LLC	4.2%	85.8	B	WI	Manitowoc	150	EEF CAPITAL LLC
2395	PARKSIDE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.2%	85.8	A	OH	FAIRFIELD	76	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2396	TERRACE VIEW CARE CENTER	4.2%	85.8	B	CA	FULLERTON	59	NAHS HOLDING INC
2397	Hillcrest Millard LLC	4.2%	85.8	B	NE	Omaha	76	HILLCREST HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2398	MEADOWBROOK MANOR	4.2%	85.8	F	OH	FOWLER	54	—
2399	LAURELS OF NEW LONDON THE	4.2%	85.8	A	OH	NEW LONDON	50	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2400	Premier Living and Rehab Center	4.2%	85.8	F	NC	Lake Waccamaw	127	—

Showing 2,351–2,400 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.