Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,701–2,750

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2701	WATERFORD CROSSING	3.9%	84.0	B	IN	GOSHEN	87	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
2702	COUNTRY CLUB CENTER I	3.9%	84.0	C	OH	DOVER	72	—
2703	Charlestown Community Inc	3.9%	84.0	A	MD	CATONSVILLE	103	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
2704	DESERT SPRINGS HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE	3.9%	84.0	C	CA	INDIO	68	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
2705	THE HEALTHCARE RESORT OF COLORADO SPRINGS	3.9%	84.0	B	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	97	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2706	Regency, A Villa Center	3.9%	84.0	D	MI	Taylor	244	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
2707	HARBOUR MANOR HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	3.9%	84.0	C	IN	NOBLESVILLE	129	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
2708	MYSTIC HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC	3.9%	84.0	C	CT	MYSTIC	100	—
2709	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - BRENTWOOD CARE CENTER	3.9%	84.0	C	IN	EVANSVILLE	114	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
2710	SCENIC POINTE NURSING AND REHAB CTR	3.9%	84.0	A	OH	MILLERSBURG	150	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2711	LAUREL BROOK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.9%	84.0	B	NJ	MOUNT LAUREL	220	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
2712	Park Terrace Health Campus	3.9%	84.0	A	KY	Louisville	88	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2713	AURORA MANOR SPECIAL CARE CENT	3.9%	84.0	C	OH	AURORA	75	SABER HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
2714	Retreat at Wellmore of Lexington	3.9%	83.9	C	SC	Lexington	60	MAXWELL GROUP INC
2715	SPRINGVIEW MANOR	3.9%	83.9	D	OH	LIMA	62	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2716	TRINITY HEALTH CARE OF LOGAN	3.9%	83.9	B	WV	LOGAN	120	TRINITY HEALTH CARE SERVICES INC
2717	ALDEN LINCOLN REHAB & H C CTR	3.9%	83.9	D	IL	CHICAGO	96	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2718	LA MESA HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.9%	83.9	A	CA	LA MESA	94	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2719	Batavia Rehabilitation and Health Care Center	3.9%	83.9	C	IL	BATAVIA	63	—
2720	ALDEN ESTATES CTS OF HUNTLEY	3.9%	83.9	F	IL	HUNTLEY	170	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2721	PRUITTHEALTH - SYLVESTER	3.9%	83.9	A	GA	SYLVESTER	117	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2722	ST. THERESA CARE CENTER	3.9%	83.9	B	OH	CINCINNATI	99	YYAM HOLDINGS LLC
2723	Bishop Care Center	3.9%	83.9	B	CA	Bishop	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2724	CYPRESS RIDGE CARE CENTER	3.9%	83.9	A	CA	MONTEREY	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2725	DOCKSIDE HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	3.9%	83.9	B	VA	LOCUST HILL	94	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2726	THE GROVE POST-ACUTE CARE CENTER	3.9%	83.9	B	CA	SYLMAR	75	—
2727	STONEY POINT HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.9%	83.8	B	CA	CHATSWORTH	132	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2728	PruittHealth- Barnwell	3.9%	83.8	A	SC	Barnwell	44	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2729	TRUMAN HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.9%	83.8	B	MO	LAMAR	109	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
2730	VALLEY HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.9%	83.8	B	KS	VALLEY FALLS	40	—
2731	ANCHOR LODGE NURSING HOME INC	3.9%	83.8	C	OH	LORAIN	110	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2732	ROYAL WOOD MILL CENTER	3.9%	83.8	B	MA	LAWRENCE	94	—
2733	WASHINGTON CENTER	3.9%	83.8	A	CA	SAN LEANDRO	99	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2734	Osceola Senior Living	3.9%	83.8	A	IA	Sibley	46	—
2735	Peak Resources- Shelby	3.9%	83.8	D	NC	Grover	100	PEAK RESOURCES INC
2736	HEARTHSTONE HEALTH CAMPUS	3.9%	83.8	D	IN	BLOOMINGTON	64	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2737	REHAB & NURSING CTR GREATER PITTSBURGH	3.9%	83.7	D	PA	GREENSBURG	120	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
2738	SHASTA HEALTHCARE	3.9%	83.7	C	CA	WEED	59	—
2739	CEDAR VIEW REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.9%	83.7	A	MA	METHUEN	106	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
2740	CALIFORNIA HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.9%	83.7	B	CA	VAN NUYS	201	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
2741	BALBOA NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.9%	83.7	B	CA	SAN DIEGO	194	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2742	WINDSOR HOUSE	3.9%	83.7	C	AL	HUNTSVILLE	117	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
2743	New Hampton Nursing & Rehab Center	3.9%	83.7	A	IA	New Hampton	46	—
2744	Senior Village Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	3.9%	83.7	A	LA	Opelousas	150	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
2745	PATRIOT VILLAGE	3.9%	83.7	D	PA	SOMERSET	100	HILLEL TROPPER 2016 IRREVOCABLE TRUST
2746	Harvard Rest Haven	3.9%	83.7	B	NE	Harvard	30	—
2747	MOBILE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.9%	83.7	B	AL	MOBILE	120	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
2748	The Oaks	3.9%	83.7	D	LA	MONROE	125	—
2749	ARBORETUM NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF WIN	3.9%	83.7	B	TX	WINNIE	0	—
2750	CAREONE AT MOORESTOWN	3.9%	83.7	B	NJ	MOORESTOWN	65	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC

Showing 2,701–2,750 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.