Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,751–2,800

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2751	Brothers Of Mercy Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.7%	82.0	A	NY	CLARENCE	240	—
2752	MEDICALODGES NEVADA	0.7%	82.0	C	MO	NEVADA	100	MEDICALODGES INC
2753	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - FOUNTAINVIEW CARE CENTER	0.7%	82.0	D	IN	MISHAWAKA	130	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
2754	MANCHESTER COMMONS OF PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE	0.7%	82.0	B	PA	ERIE	78	PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE
2755	THE CRESTON HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.7%	82.0	B	OR	PORTLAND	100	—
2756	SENIOR CARE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER - WICHI	0.7%	82.0	B	TX	WICHITA FALLS	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2757	ABBEY DELRAY SOUTH	0.7%	82.0	C	FL	DELRAY BEACH	90	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
2758	WEST SUBURBAN MEDICAL CTR	0.7%	82.0	C	IL	OAK PARK	50	—
2759	Kanawha Community Home, INC.	0.7%	82.0	A	IA	Kanawha	26	—
2760	Good Samaritan Society - Millard	0.7%	82.0	B	NE	Omaha	106	SANFORD
2761	Jewish Home of Rochester	0.7%	81.9	A	NY	Rochester	362	—
2762	SANDWICH LIVING & REHAB CENTER	0.7%	81.9	C	IL	SANDWICH	63	DOMMFT II LLC
2763	MERCYHEALTH JAVON BEA HOSPITAL -SNF	0.7%	81.9	F	IL	ROCKFORD	17	MERCY HEALTH CORPORATION
2764	YOAKUM NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	81.9	C	TX	YOAKUM	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
2765	ROYAL WAYLAND REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.7%	81.9	A	MA	WAYLAND	40	—
2766	HAMLIN PLACE OF BOYNTON BEACH	0.7%	81.9	A	FL	LANTANA	120	—
2767	BINGER NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	81.9	A	OK	BINGER	65	ABBOTT FAMILY LLC
2768	UNIVERSITY PARK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	0.7%	81.9	C	IN	FORT WAYNE	104	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2769	CEDARGATE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.7%	81.9	D	MO	POPLAR BLUFF	108	LEGACY HEALTH SERVICES INC
2770	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ST JAMES	0.7%	81.9	B	MN	ST JAMES	42	SANFORD
2771	CHI Health St. Francis	0.7%	81.9	A	NE	Grand Island	36	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
2772	SAGECREST ALZHEIMERS CARE CENTER	0.7%	81.9	A	TX	SAN ANGELO	0	MCCULLOCH COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2773	BRIDGEWALK ON HARDEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LL	0.7%	81.9	C	FL	LAKELAND	120	—
2774	BETHANY ON 42ND	0.7%	81.9	A	ND	FARGO	116	BLUE STONE THERAPY INC
2775	MENORAH HOME & HOSPITAL FOR AGED & INFIRM	0.7%	81.9	B	NY	BROOKLYN	436	—
2776	ONEIDA NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.7%	81.9	C	TN	ONEIDA	56	—
2777	SCHMITT WOODLAND HILLS	0.7%	81.9	A	WI	RICHLAND CENTER	50	LEADINGCHOICE NETWORK LLC
2778	BIRCHAVEN RETIREMENT VILLAGE	0.7%	81.9	B	OH	FINDLAY	118	BLANCHARD VALLEY HEALTH SYSTEM
2779	DJ Jacobetti Home for Veterans	0.7%	81.9	A	MI	Marquette	81	STATE OF MICHIGAN OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
2780	PARK MANOR LTD	0.7%	81.9	A	WI	PARK FALLS	92	—
2781	MAPLE LAWN NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	81.9	A	OK	HYDRO	60	—
2782	THE STEVEN AND ALEXANDRA COHEN PED L T C PAVILION	0.7%	81.9	A	NY	VALHALLA	24	—
2783	ROCKPORT NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	81.9	B	TX	ROCKPORT	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
2784	WHITE OAK MANOR	0.7%	81.9	D	OH	WARREN	52	—
2785	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - PARSONS	0.7%	81.9	A	KS	PARSONS	45	SANFORD
2786	Claiborne Rehabilitation	0.7%	81.7	B	LA	Homer	70	—
2787	APPLE REHAB ROCKY HILL	0.7%	81.7	F	CT	ROCKY HILL	120	—
2788	RESORT NURSING HOME	0.7%	81.7	B	NY	ARVERNE	280	—
2789	MURFREESBORO REHAB AND NURSING, INC	0.7%	81.7	A	AR	MURFREESBORO	66	—
2790	CHRISTOPHER HOUSE OF WORCESTER	0.7%	81.7	A	MA	WORCESTER	156	—
2791	REGENTS POINT - WINDCREST	0.7%	81.7	A	CA	IRVINE	59	HUMANGOOD
2792	Holton Manor	0.7%	81.7	A	WI	ELKHORN	60	CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
2793	CAMELOT CARE CENTER	0.7%	81.7	A	IN	LOGANSPORT	91	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2794	ODD FELLOWS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.7%	81.7	A	ME	AUBURN	26	—
2795	LAFAYETTE MANOR, INC	0.7%	81.7	B	PA	UNIONTOWN	98	—
2796	CONCORDIA VILLAGE CARE CENTER	0.7%	81.7	B	IL	SPRINGFIELD	62	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES
2797	VILLA MARIA WEST SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.7%	81.7	B	FL	HIALEAH GARDENS	27	ARCHDIOCESE OF MIAMI INC
2798	LONG BEACH NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	81.7	B	NY	LONG BEACH	200	—
2799	BIG MEADOWS	0.7%	81.7	C	IL	SAVANNA	83	—
2800	Prestige Care Center of Plattsmouth	0.7%	81.7	B	NE	Plattsmouth	111	—

Showing 2,751–2,800 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.