Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,801–2,850

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2801	PINE RIDGE HEALTH CARE LLP	3.9%	83.4	F	TX	LIVINGSTON	120	—
2802	STONEBRIDGE WESTPHALIA	3.9%	83.4	B	MO	WESTPHALIA	64	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
2803	Riverside Care & Rehabilitation Center	3.9%	83.4	C	KY	Calhoun	79	WHEATEN LLC
2804	Grand Oaks Nursing Center	3.8%	83.4	A	MI	Baldwin	79	PEPLINKSI HOLDINGS INC
2805	Absolut Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation at A	3.8%	83.4	C	NY	EAST AURORA	320	ABSOLUT FACILITIES MANAGEMENT LLC
2806	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT ALICE MANOR	3.8%	83.4	C	MD	BALTIMORE	105	ACCURATE STAFFING LLC
2807	BELLEFONTAINE GARDENS NURSING & REHAB	3.8%	83.4	F	MO	SAINT LOUIS	96	—
2808	HIGHBANKS CARE CENTER	3.8%	83.4	A	OH	COLUMBUS	56	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2809	VALLEY POINTE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.8%	83.4	B	CA	CASTRO VALLEY	50	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2810	VALLEY VIEW HOME	3.8%	83.4	B	MT	GLASGOW	96	—
2811	WINDCREST HEALTH AND REHAB INC	3.8%	83.4	B	AR	SPRINGDALE	70	RHC OPERATIONS INC
2812	ABERDEEN HEALTH AND REHAB	3.8%	83.4	B	SD	ABERDEEN	78	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
2813	PRUITTHEALTH - JASPER	3.8%	83.4	A	GA	JASPER	60	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2814	Parkview Manor Care Center	3.8%	83.3	F	IA	Reinbeck	28	WESTERN HOME SERVICES INC
2815	Seneca Nursing & Rehabilitation Center, LLC	3.8%	83.3	A	NY	Waterloo	120	—
2816	SUNNYVALE POST-ACUTE CENTER	3.8%	83.3	A	CA	SUNNYVALE	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2817	LANDMARK OF AMARILLO REHABILITATION AND NURSING CE	3.8%	83.3	D	TX	AMARILLO	0	CHILDRESS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2818	VALLEY VIEW HEALTH CAMPUS	3.8%	83.3	C	OH	FREMONT	60	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2819	FALLS RUN NURSING AND REHABILITATION	3.8%	83.3	A	VA	FREDERICKSBURG	90	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2820	GREEN MEADOWS SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB	3.8%	83.3	B	OH	LOUISVILLE	110	FEJCC TRUST
2821	Bettendorf Health Care Center	3.8%	83.3	D	IA	Bettendorf	86	—
2822	VILLA LAS PALMAS HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.8%	83.3	B	CA	EL CAJON	151	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2823	HERITAGE HALL LEXINGTON	3.8%	83.3	B	VA	EAST LEXINGTON	60	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
2824	Magnolia Manor - Spartanburg	3.8%	83.3	B	SC	Spartanburg	95	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
2825	AVAMERE RIVERPARK OF EUGENE	3.8%	83.3	A	OR	EUGENE	119	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
2826	MARSH'S EDGE	3.8%	83.3	C	GA	SAINT SIMONS ISLAND	20	MAXWELL GROUP INC
2827	RATLIFF CARE CENTER	3.8%	83.3	B	MO	CAPE GIRARDEAU	46	CHOICE REHABILITATION LLC
2828	Auburn Oaks Care Center	3.8%	83.3	A	CA	Auburn	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2829	HERMAN HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.8%	83.3	B	CA	SAN JOSE	99	RENEW HEALTH CONSULTING SERVICES LLC
2830	DIVERSICARE OF BIG SPRINGS	3.8%	83.3	A	AL	HUNTSVILLE	145	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
2831	DIVERSICARE OF HUTCHINSON	3.8%	83.2	B	KS	HUTCHINSON	73	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
2832	Eastside Health and Rehabilitation Center	3.8%	83.2	A	IL	PITTSFIELD	92	—
2833	Magnolia Manor - Greenville	3.8%	83.2	A	SC	Greenville	99	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
2834	ALTERCARE OF NOBLES POND, INC	3.8%	83.2	B	OH	CANTON	71	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
2835	RINGGOLD NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC	3.8%	83.2	A	LA	RINGGOLD	112	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
2836	AVAMERE COURT AT KEIZER	3.8%	83.2	B	OR	KEIZER	69	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
2837	LAKELAND COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	3.8%	83.2	A	MS	JACKSON	105	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
2838	SUNTERRA SPRINGS INDEPENDENCE	3.8%	83.2	B	MO	INDEPENDENCE	38	BALL VENTURES LLC
2839	Pine Knoll Path of Journey LLC	3.8%	83.2	B	GA	CARROLLTON	122	CYPRESS OPERATING LLC
2840	LONG BEACH CARE CENTER, INC	3.8%	83.2	B	CA	LONG BEACH	163	—
2841	CHAPEL MANOR	3.8%	83.2	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	238	—
2842	BOULEVARD REHABILITATION CENTER	3.8%	83.2	B	FL	BOYNTON BEACH	167	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
2843	The Willows At Okemos	3.8%	83.2	B	MI	OKEMOS	68	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2844	FREEDOM VILLAGE HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.8%	83.2	A	CA	LAKE FOREST	52	STRINGER FAMILY PARTNERSHIP
2845	IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT KANSAS CITY, LLC	3.8%	83.2	C	MO	KANSAS CITY	90	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
2846	DESERT REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	3.8%	83.1	B	CA	PALM SPRINGS	32	TENET CALIFORNIA INC
2847	WARREN MANOR	3.8%	83.1	C	PA	WARREN	121	HCF INC
2848	NORTHGATE POSTACUTE CARE	3.8%	83.1	C	CA	SAN RAFAEL	52	RMG CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
2849	GLEN THE	3.8%	83.1	B	OH	CINCINNATI	54	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2850	TODD-DICKEY NURSING AND REHABILITATION	3.8%	83.1	A	IN	LEAVENWORTH	62	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC

Showing 2,801–2,850 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.