Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,851–2,900

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2851	The Laurels of Forest Glenn	3.8%	83.1	B	NC	Garner	120	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2852	NHC HEALTHCARE, SEQUATCHIE	3.8%	83.1	C	TN	DUNLAP	110	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
2853	BROKEN ARROW NURSING HOME, INC	3.8%	83.1	B	OK	BROKEN ARROW	101	—
2854	COPLEY HEALTH CENTER	3.8%	83.1	D	OH	COPLEY	130	RRW LLC
2855	Franklin Oaks Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	3.8%	83.1	A	NC	Louisburg	166	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
2856	White Oak Manor - Newberry	3.8%	83.1	A	SC	Newberry	140	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
2857	PERRY COUNTY NURSING CENTER	3.8%	83.1	A	MS	RICHTON	60	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
2858	AUTUMN LEAVES NURSING AND REHAB CTR, LLC	3.8%	83.1	C	LA	WINNFIELD	124	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2859	SOUTHLAND	3.8%	83.1	B	CA	NORWALK	120	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2860	O'NEILL HEALTHCARE NORTH OLMSTED	3.8%	83.1	D	OH	NORTH OLMSTED	67	O NEILL MANAGEMENT LLC
2861	ROCKLAND RIDGE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.8%	83.1	B	OH	BELPRE	70	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2862	GREGSTON NURSING HOME, INC.	3.8%	83.1	A	OK	MARLOW	96	—
2863	SHARON HEALTH CARE ELMS	3.8%	83.0	D	IL	PEORIA	96	—
2864	GARDEN VALLEY RETIREMENT VILLAGE	3.8%	83.0	A	KS	GARDEN CITY	62	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
2865	Medilodge of Sterling Heights	3.8%	83.0	B	MI	Sterling Heights	248	B&Y TRUST
2866	Leisure Village Health Care Center	3.8%	83.0	C	OK	Tulsa	117	MLS ACQUISITION LLC
2867	The Laurels of Hendersonville	3.8%	83.0	C	NC	Hendersonville	100	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2868	Silas Creek Rehabilitation Center	3.8%	83.0	A	NC	Winston Salem	90	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
2869	West Woods of Bridgman	3.8%	83.0	A	MI	Bridgman	92	—
2870	GLENDORA CANYON TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	3.8%	83.0	B	CA	GLENDORA	120	HELENE MAYER 2007 IRREVOCABLE EXEMPT TRUST FBO ABRAHAM MAYER DATED DEC
2871	DELTA REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.8%	83.0	B	MS	CLEVELAND	75	NEXION HEALTH INC
2872	MAPLE LAWN NURSING AND REHABILITATION	3.8%	83.0	A	OK	HYDRO	60	—
2873	RegalCare at Wakefield	3.8%	83.0	D	MA	WAKEFIELD	149	—
2874	Wesley Pines Retirement Community	3.8%	83.0	A	NC	Lumberton	62	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
2875	LIFE CARE CENTER OF PENSACOLA	3.8%	83.0	A	FL	PENSACOLA	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2876	ATHENS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.8%	83.0	C	PA	ATHENS	90	SUMMATION FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
2877	Hemingford Care Center	3.8%	83.0	B	NE	Hemingford	39	—
2878	The Laurels of Mt. Pleasant	3.8%	83.0	A	MI	Mt. Pleasant	100	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2879	THE VILLAGE AT GLEANNLOCH FARMS	3.8%	83.0	A	TX	SPRING	0	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
2880	Bluegrass Care & Rehabilitation Center	3.8%	83.0	B	KY	Lexington	124	WHEATEN LLC
2881	THE PILLARS OF BILOXI	3.8%	83.0	D	MS	BILOXI	180	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
2882	LIFE CARE CENTER OF MELBOURNE	3.8%	82.9	A	FL	MELBOURNE	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2883	NEW HOPE RETIREMENT & CARE CENTER	3.8%	82.9	C	OK	MCALESTER	55	—
2884	Ruston Nursing and Rehabilitation Center, LLC	3.8%	82.9	A	LA	Ruston	157	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
2885	PRINCETON REHAB & HCC	3.8%	82.9	F	IL	CHICAGO	225	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2886	BROADWAY VILLA POST ACUTE	3.8%	82.9	B	CA	SONOMA	144	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2887	MILL BROOK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.8%	82.9	C	MA	FALL RIVER	152	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
2888	FAMILY OF CARING AT PARK RIDGE LLC	3.8%	82.9	F	NJ	PARK RIDGE	210	KBWB OPERATIONS ATRIUM
2889	Bellevue Post Acute	3.8%	82.9	C	WA	BELLEVUE	69	GENE E LYNN LIVING TRUST
2890	SOUTHFORK RIVER THERAPY AND LIVING	3.8%	82.9	B	AR	SALEM	84	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2891	SAGE CREEK POST-ACUTE	3.8%	82.9	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	60	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2892	Oxnard Manor Healthcare Center	3.8%	82.9	C	CA	Oxnard	82	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
2893	LAKES OF MONCLOVA HEALTH CAMPUS THE	3.8%	82.9	B	OH	MAUMEE	60	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2894	MEADOWS OF OTTAWA THE	3.8%	82.9	C	OH	OTTAWA	86	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2895	BROOKDALE OVERLAND PARK	3.8%	82.9	A	KS	OVERLAND PARK	94	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
2896	LIFE CARE CENTER OF WEST BRIDGEWATER	3.8%	82.9	A	MA	WEST BRIDGEWATER	150	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2897	The Willows at Fritz Farm	3.8%	82.8	B	KY	Lexington	54	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2898	PRUITTHEALTH - VIRGINIA PARK	3.8%	82.8	C	GA	ATLANTA	128	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2899	CEDAR RIVER HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.8%	82.8	D	WA	RENTON	60	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2900	American River Center	3.8%	82.8	B	CA	Carmichael	99	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC

Showing 2,851–2,900 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.